SORRY ALL!! Be back soon....

Thank you everyone for reading my blog. Sorry that it hasn't been updated very frequently recently. I have a lot of other things going on currently, including getting ready for all of my fantasy football leagues, and trying to stay competitive in all of my fantasy baseball leagues. It doesn't help when you have migraines every day for 2 weeks either.

Anyway, once I conclude all of my fantasy drafts, that should give me considerably more time to blog, and football season will be here!! I'll get back on the horse then (sometime next week), and we'll all finish the season strong and and make money.

I might be posting some fantasy football stuff too. I just got information flowing out of my ears right now, and I need someone to share it with.


Anyone want to contribute, give me a holler petejohnson20@gmail.com.

pj20

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

So after a 0-3 day yesterday with the blog picks (2-4 in real life), I decided to take a day off from making some blog picks. I wanted to discuss something that me and K7 have been talking about for a few weeks now. THE RUN LINE.

Here is a quick definition...

RUN LINES

The run line involves a team getting 1 1/2 runs (the underdog) while the favorite must lay 1 1/2 runs. A money line is also with to the 1 1/2 runs For a favorite to win on the run line, the team must then win by 2 runs.

The odds on a favorite will usually be a plus number because the team must win by at least 2 runs. The money line attached to the team getting 1 1/2 runs will usually be a minus number because the team can still lose by one run and still be a winning bet.

The same rules that apply for totals apply for run lines: listed pitchers must start, and the game can not be called early.

Here is and example of a Run Line Yankees - 1 1/2 +120 Devil Rays + 1 1/2 - 140 If you bet the Yankees would win by 2 runs or more you would win $1.20 for every $1.00 bet If you bet that the Devil Rays would win or they can lose by less than two runs you will have to risk $1.40 for every $1.00 you want to win.

(taken from http://www.docsports.com/betting-baseball.html)


The reason I bring this up is because of the unusual amount of HEAVY favorites today. Let's look at some games on today's card.

Philadelphia -240 vs. Washington
St. Louis -205 vs. Pittsburgh
Boston -175 @ Baltimore
Minnestoa -235 vs. Oakland
Chicago Cubs -330 vs. Cincinnati

Now, I think it is safe to say, that in a vaccuum with straight odds, we would all pick the heavy favorites to win their games. The Cubs, Cardinals, Twins, and Phillies are all playing inferior teams at home. They SHOULD win. But with the prices attached, there is no reason to take that risk. A 2-1 day could potentially lose you money. This is where betting the Run Line can be adventagous. Let's look at the same games, but with Run Line odds listed instead.

Philadelphia -115 vs. Washington
St. Louis -110 vs. Pittsburgh
Boston -125 @ Baltimore
Minnesota -115 vs. Oakland
Chicago Cubs -145 vs. Cincinnati

Needless to say, those lines are MUCH more appealing and represent much better value. If you think these teams are going to win (the oddsmakers certainly do), they why not take the chance that they could win by 2?

This is a very interesting debate, and I would love to have some feedback on it.

PLEASE USE THE COMMENTS TO GIVE SOME FEEDBACK. HOW DO WE FEEL ABOUT BETTING RUN LINES? SUCKER BET, OR GREAT VALUE??

holla, pj20

Monday 8/18, Athletics +135 @ Twins -150, 8.0

MIN - No team in baseball has been better than Minnesota over the past two months, and it's been even longer since the Twins lost a series at the Metrodome. The Twins are 36-17 in the past two months -- a record that's all the more impressive considering they are 11-11 on the road in that span. Minnesota has gone 25-6 in its last 31 games at the Metrodome to climb to the top of the division -- a surge due in large part to a prolific offense. The Twins have averaged 6.2 runs in those 31 home games, a number they pushed up during a three-game sweep of Seattle over the weekend. Minnesota scored 27 runs in the series, capped by an 11-8 win Sunday. The A's will try to get their offense going Monday against Nick Blackburn (9-6, 3.73 ERA). The rookie right-hander has looked excellent in stretches this season, but struggled in his latest start. He gave up four runs in 4 2-3 innings of a 9-6, 12-inning loss to New York on Tuesday. They picked up a rare win Friday by beating Chicago 6-4, but totaled two runs in the series' final two games, capped by a 13-1 loss Sunday. Blackburn has never faced the A's.

OAK - All-Star Justin Duchscherer (10-8, 2.59) will oppose Blackburn. Duchscherer hasn't pitched well recently, going 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA in his last four starts, but was better in his last outing. He gave up three runs over 6 1-3 innings in a 3-2 loss to Tampa Bay on Wednesday. Oakland took two of three at home against the Twins from April 22-24. The A's are the only team in baseball with an OBP below .300 (the Mendoza Line equivalent of on-base percentage) since the All-Star break. After averaging nearly seven innings over his first 17 starts, Justin Duchscherer is averaging just more than 5 2/3 innings in his past four starts. With a near nonexistent offense backing him, Duchscherer doesn't have much margin for error, and with his luck beginning to balance out, he's no longer a fantasy ace. The A's score slightly less than four runs per game, but they've averaged 2.8 since the All-Star break in going 5-23.

PICK - TWINS -150

Monday 8/18: Angels -105 @ Rays -110, 9.5

ANA - The Angels (76-46) have firsthand experience playing in TB, getting swept in St. Petersburg May 9-11. They were shut out 2-0 in each of the first two games before losing 8-5 in the finale. On Monday, they'll try to ride Jon Garland (11-7, 4.26 ERA). The right-hander has won three of his last four starts despite a 4.97 ERA over that span. He was outstanding at Tropicana Field on May 9, pitching eight shutout innings before reliever Justin Speier gave up a walk-off home run to Evan Longoria in Tampa Bay's 2-0 win. Garland has never lost in St. Petersburg, going 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA in six career starts. The Angels took two of three from the Rays in Anaheim from June 9-11, but would still need to sweep this set to avoid losing the season series for only the second time. They are 65-36 all-time against the Rays.

TB - Tropicana Field has presented a different kind of problem all season for opponents, as the Rays (75-48) have won six of their last seven there to move to 45-17 at home -- tied for the best home record in baseball. The Rays have been playing well everywhere, as they return to Florida after going 7-3 on a 10-game road trip, capped with Sunday's 7-4 win over Texas. Thanks to Boston's 15-4 loss to Toronto earlier in the day, they opened a 4 1/2-game lead on the Red Sox atop the AL East. Garland will be opposed by Andy Sonnanstine (12-6, 4.35). The Rays' leader in victories has been sharp this month, going 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA in three August starts. The right-hander has struggled against Los Angeles, however, going 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in two career starts. He gave up five runs in five innings but did not receive a decision in Tampa Bay's 8-5 win on May 11.
Garland is pitching well enough, and the Angels are better team here, even on the road. The Rays have played admirably since Crawford and Longoria went down, but Sonnastine comes back to earth today, let's take the Angels as an underdog -105.

Monday 8/18: Red Sox -125 @ Orioles +110, 8.5

BOS - The Orioles' offense has the highest slugging percentage in the majors (by 15 points) since the All-Star break, and its .364 on-base percentage ranks second. The word "juggernaut" wouldn't normally be an adjective to describe the Orioles' offensive exploits -- their OPS ranked a respectable 12th before the All-Star break -- but until the bats cool down, protect your starters against them, Jon Lester included. … Lester, who is 8-1 with a 2.87 ERA over his last 12 starts, limited hard-hitting Texas to three runs and seven hits while fanning six over 7 1-3 innings in an 8-4 home victory on Wednesday. Lester is 4-0 with a 3.25 ERA in six career outing versus the Orioles, and held them to two runs and seven hits over seven innings against Guthrie in June. Boston is 7-5 versus Baltimore in 2008, taking two of three at Fenway Park from July 11-13.

BAL - Guthrie, who is 1-1 with a 3.58 ERA in seven career games versus the Red Sox, was reached for five runs and seven hits while walking a season-high five over 4 2-3 innings in a 9-2 loss at Boston on June 12. But the right-hander has since gone 7-1 with a 2.51 ERA in 11 outings for the Orioles (60-63), and has posted an impressive 1.23 ERA in winning a career-high four consecutive starts. He was dominant again Wednesday, holding Cleveland to one run and four hits in seven innings of a 6-1 road victory. Guthrie has allowed one earned run in each of his past four starts, and since June, nine of his 14 starts have resulted in exactly one earned run allowed, including a shutdown of the mighty Rangers offense two starts ago. With Guthrie pitching that well, you can feel comfortable starting him until he proves otherwise, even against the Red Sox (.801 team OPS, third in the majors). … "I haven't been a part of or seen a team swinging the bats as well as we are right now," right fielder Nick Markakis told the Orioles' official Web site. Markakis, who went 3-for-5 with an RBI on Sunday, is batting .313 (5-for-16) versus Boston's scheduled starter Jon Lester (11-4, 3.25).
The Sox have lost 2 in a row, and things don't get easier here. I think for value, the Orioles at +110 is a great value pick. I'll back Guthrie and the O's offense at home.

PICK - ORIOLES +110

Friday, August 15, 2008

Hey, sorry all, no picks/posts today. I fell asleep last night before I could any research, and that can never be a good thing for betting. Therefore, instead of giving you picks with half-assed research, I'll give you picks with NO research! Basically, I'm just saying who I'm betting on today. Been muuuch better the last 2 days (7-2 on wednesday!).

8/15/08
PHI -140 - Moyer is a road warrior
LAD -145 - Parra much better at home, LAD HOT
LAA +125 - ridiculous price for MLB's best team
TB -110 - No Josh Hamilton for Texas, Rays are the better team
CHW -130 - ALWAYS bet against the A's.

I might not have any picks for this weekend either, I'll see if K7 wants to contribute, or I might have an article or 2 on my underdog program.

Good luck All!!

Thursday - Boston -295 @ Texas +250, 10.5

BOS - The Red Sox have averaged more than nine runs over the course of their seven-game winning streak against the Rangers, which dates back to July 2007. Matsuzaka (13-2, 2.90) is coming off his longest outing of the season, as he gave up four hits and a run in eight innings of a 6-2 win over the Chicago White Sox on Saturday. Opposing hitters are batting just .206 against Daisuke Matsuzaka, meanwhile, and the right-hander has been particularly good lately. He's 5-1 with a 2.17 ERA in his last eight starts, allowing two or fewer runs in seven of those outings. Matsuzaka has been far from great against Texas, but he's beaten them the only two times he has faced them. In 10 1-3 innings in the two starts, he allowed eight runs and 12 hits, but the Red Sox have scored in double digits in both games. The Red Sox have won nine of 12 overall and are seeking their first four-game winning streak since a seven-game run from May 17-22. They've also won five straight at Fenway Park to improve to 42-16 there.

TEX - Tommy Hunter (0-1, 10.61 ERA) doesn't seem like the best candidate to reverse the trend, as the right-hander makes his third major league start Thursday after struggling in the first two. Both teams are likely to be missing some offense Thursday. Boston placed third baseman Mike Lowell on the 15-day disabled list with a strained oblique muscle, while Texas' Josh Hamilton left Wednesday's game and headed home to his wife, who gave birth to the couple's third child.

Over is 7-2 in TEX last 9 road games.
Over is 13-6-1 in TEX last 20 overall.

PICK – OVER 10.5

pj20

Thursday - Chicago -150@ Atlanta +135, 9.5

CHC - Chicago, which has won 13 of 16 overall, is outscoring its opponents 59-19 during its road winning streak. The Cubs last won seven straight on the road June 12-22, 2004, and have not won eight consecutive away from Wrigley since reeling off 12 straight from July 1-Aug. 3, 1945. Chicago's Ted Lilly (11-6, 4.26 ERA) takes the ball Thursday, and he has been at his best away from Wrigley lately, going 3-1 with a 2.53 ERA in his last seven road starts. Lilly has just one loss in his last 12 starts, and is 2-0 with a 2.76 ERA in five outings since the All-Star break. On Friday, the left-hander allowed two runs and seven hits in 7 1-3 innings of a 3-2, 11-inning win over St. Louis. In his only start against the Braves this season on June 10, Lilly allowed three runs and four hits with eight strikeouts in 6 2-3 innings to earn a 10-5 win.

ATL - The Braves (55-65), meanwhile, have lost nine of their last 11 at Turner Field, and have scored just three runs in losing their last three games overall. Glavine has been throwing for the past month, and has not had any further discomfort. In two minor league rehab starts, the 42-year-old left-hander allowed four runs and seven hits in nine innings. The two-time NL Cy Young Award winner is 15-14 with a 3.72 ERA in 36 career starts against the Cubs, but is 1-3 with a 6.08 ERA in five starts versus them since 2006.
The Braves are 3-9 in Glavine's starts this season, and the 10-time All-Star has not won since May 20.

CHC are 13-3 in their last 16 overall.
Over is 8-0 in CHC last 8 road games.
Over is 10-3 in ATL last 13 home games.
Over is 15-10 in Lilly’s starts this year.
Under is 14-7 in games Bucknor is behind the plate (7.96 rpg).

PICK - CHICAGO CUBS RUNLINE +110, and OVER 9.5

pj20

Thursday - Cinncinnati +105 @ Pittsburgh -120, 9.0

CIN - Lately, most of Cueto's issues have come in the first inning. Of the 11 earned runs he's allowed in his last three starts, eight of those have come in his first trip to the mound. Cueto is 1-1 with a 5.73 ERA against Pittsburgh, and hasn't allowed a run in the first.

PIT - Snell (4-9, 6.06) won 14 games for the Pirates (55-65) in 2006, and had an impressive 3.76 ERA last season despite only winning nine games. But he's been abysmal in 2008, winning just twice in his last 20 starts. Like Cueto, Snell's primary problems of late have come in the first inning. He's given up nine earned runs in the first frame in his five starts since the All-Star break, going 1-2 with a 6.58 ERA in those outings.In his last four starts against the Reds, Snell is 1-3 with a 9.55 ERA, allowing seven runs in the first. Pittsburgh has scored just 23 in its last eight, though the lineup should get a boost Wednesday. That's when first baseman Adam LaRoche, who was hitting .413 with eight homers and 21 RBIs since June 30, is expected to come off the disabled list. LaRoche will join his brother, third baseman Andy, in the infield for the first time since Andy was acquired as part of the Bay trade on July 31. The Reds lineup is hitting .348 against Ian Snell as well.

PICK - OVER 5.0 first 5 innings.
Under is 7-1 in PIT last 8 overall. (getting Laroche back today though)
Over is 65-48 for PIT on the season.
Over is 13-10 in Snell starts this season.

pj20

Arizona +115 @ Colorado -130, 9.5

ARI - The Diamondbacks look to win their fifth straight over the Rockies when they play the second game of their three-game series Wednesday at Coors Field. The Diamondbacks are 30-15 against the NL West -- the best record of any team within its own division. The Diamondbacks are 9-1 against Colorado this season, outscoring the Rockies 67-37. Arizona, batting .321 in the season series, has won all four meetings at Coors. After losing a perfect game with two outs in the seventh at San Diego on July 29, Davis has been pounded for 12 runs and 15 hits over six innings in losing his two August starts. On Friday, the left-hander gave up a season-high seven runs, nine hits and four walks in 4 1-3 innings of an 11-6 defeat to Atlanta. This will be Davis' first start of the season versus the Rockies after going 1-2 with a 3.18 ERA in three starts against them last season.

COL - Francis had a 2.84 ERA in three starts versus the Diamondbacks last season, but this year he's posted an 11.25 ERA in losing all three of his starts against them, yielding at least five runs in each outing. In first start since June 28, the left-hander allowed five runs and eight hits in 5 1-3 innings of a 6-3 loss to Washington on Thursday. He has a 9.19 ERA over his last three starts. "I think it's some bad habits I've picked up," he told the team's official Web site. Conor Jackson lights up Jeff Francis like a Christmas tree. He's 12-for-32 (.375) with four home runs and 10 RBIs. Teammates Chris Young, Stephen Drew, Mark Reynolds and Chad Tracy have averages better than .400 versus Francis. Start your Diamondbacks! ...

ARI are 8-3 in their last 11 road games.
Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Colorado.

PICK – OVER 9.5

Kansas City +180 @ Chicago (AL) -200

CHW - Buehrle (9-10, 3.94 ERA) looks for a better outing against the Royals than his one earlier this month. He allowed season highs of eight runs and 14 hits over 4 1-3 innings of a 9-7 loss on Aug. 2. The veteran southpaw is 17-8 with a 3.57 ERA in 34 career starts against the Royals, but he is 1-2 with a 5.30 ERA in three starts against them this season. Buehrle told the White Sox's official Web site on Friday that the heat affected him as he allowed one run over seven innings to win 5-3 over the Red Sox. "I was trying to get out alive," he said. "I didn't care if I gave up 100 runs that game; I was so beat out there. I was so exhausted out there."

KC - Kansas City lost for the fifth time in its last six games Tuesday. The last-place Royals have been outscored 40-13 during that stretch. Luke Hochevar (6-10, 5.54) takes the mound for the Royals on Wednesday, looking to snap a three-decision losing streak. He pitched 5 2-3 innings last Wednesday against Boston, allowing five runs and seven hits in an 8-2 loss. The right-hander is 1-5 with a 7.45 ERA in his last seven starts. Hochevar is 0-1 with a 6.17 ERA in two starts against the White Sox this season.

Under is 13-6 in KC last 19 overall.
CHW are 36-25 in their last 51 home games.
CHW are 9-2 in Buehrles last 11 starts vs. KC
KC are 14-39 in the last 53 meetings in Chicago.

PICK - WHITE SOX RUNLINE-110

Mets -150 @ Washington +135, 8.0

NYM - John Maine has a very favorable matchup as he comes off the DL to start in Washington. Washington has a .702 OPS since the All-Star break. He's 5-2 with a 4.44 ERA in nine starts versus Washington, including 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA against the Nationals in 2008. Wright is just 1-for-14 versus Jason Bergmann, and Delgado is 0-for-7.

WAS - Jason Bergmann (2-8, 4.13) takes the ball for the Nationals looking to win consecutive starts for the first time this season. The right-hander allowed a run and seven hits in seven innings of a 6-3 victory at Colorado on Thursday, his first victory since May 15 over the Mets at Shea Stadium. The right-hander allowed three hits and struck out nine in seven innings of a 1-0 win over the Mets in May, improving to 2-1 with a 2.55 ERA in four starts against them.

Over is 11-5 in NYM last 16 overall.
WAS are 20-44 in their last 64 overall.
Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Washington
NYM are 7-1 in Maines last 8 starts vs. Washington

PICK - METS -150

Just take the kid and call it a day

I have a ton of research today, but alas I am low on time, and slightly lower on confidence (on the Blog picks recently, not in myself or gambling ability). Therefore, I will leave you with one pick for now. I introduce, "The Franchise".

SF +105 @ HOU -120

The Astros HAVE won 13 of 17 games, are coming a win vs. these Giants, and send their ace to the mound at home. All good things that the Stros have in their favor, but they are generously taken into account in the price. No way a potential Cy Young Winner should be an underdog vs. a team that just lost the league's leading RBI man, Carlos Lee.

"Lincecum has squared off against Oswalt twice in his three career starts against Houston. The aces met in Lincecum's third and fourth career starts May 17 and 22, 2007, and Lincecum went 1-0 with a 1.20 ERA and 14 strikeouts in 15 innings in those games -- both Giants victories. Oswalt, who's 3-5 with a 3.99 ERA in 11 career starts against San Francisco, went 0-1 with a 2.57 ERA when matched up with Lincecum."

I have more stats, but honestly they don't make a difference to me. I know the Giants struggle to score runs, but Timmy Lincecum should pitch well enough to keep them in any game.

I'll try to get to some more late, but no promises....

Games I'm feeling though - Chicago White Sox, Bal/Cle over 10.5, Philadelphia, and the Phi/LAD over 7.0.

Underdog gambles - Texas +145, Minnesota +125

pj20

STL/FLO – These teams had both been playing rather inspired of late, but have leveled off the past 10 games (Flo 5-5, Stl 4-6). Florida will enjoy coming home after a road series vs. the Mets, and the Cardinals just got drubbed by the Cubs, leaving them 7 out in the Central. Both teams can score runs, and in bunches. St. Louis has lost 3 of four overall, scoring 2 or fewer in each loss. “Pineiro (4-5, 5.04 ERA) has been healthy lately, but has struggled. The right-hander beat the Los Angeles Dodgers after allowing four runs in seven innings of a 9-6 win on Wednesday, but he has a 6.61 ERA in his last eight starts, allowing at least 10 hits six times over that span. Florida will send Anibal Sanchez to the mound for his third start after shoulder surgery. Sanchez (1-1, 4.22) hasn't gotten out of the sixth inning in his first two outings, giving up 11 hits and walking five in 10 2-3 innings.” Neither pitcher has faced their opponent, and these teams haven’t played this year. The over is 10-1-1 in St. Louis’s last 12 road games, and 11-3-1 in the last 15 overall. Florida has won 10 of Sanchez’s last 11 home starts, and the under is 7-3-1 in those games. However, he has not pitched the way he did when accumulating those stats, and I look for him to be closer to the pitcher he was last outing, than last season. The weather is set for 82F with a light rain. With Florida being in as much of a must-win situation as you can be at this time of year, I like the Marlins, and the over in this one.

CLE/BAL – There are 2 main things that stick out to me here. One, Fausto Carmona has not fully returned to form since his hip injury. He teased us with a great start in Detroit, but that was sandwiched with 2 awful outings, including his last where he only threw 41 strikes and had 5 walks. “In his last three, he is 1-2 with a shaky 11.25 ERA and 1.89 WHIP.” The second thing that sticks out is that the Orioles have a .294 average as a team since the break (2nd in majors). The Orioles pitcher, Dennis Sarfate, should be able to be got to also though. He was pulled quickly in his last start, and only last 7 innings total in his past 2 (only career starts). I think that there should be some runs scored in this one. The over is 22-7-1 in Baltimore’s last 30 road games, including 39-16-2 in the past 57 overall. Even though the under is 7-2 in Cleveland’s past 9 games, the over is 7-1 in Carmona’s last 8 home starts. Both teams have bullpens that have been getting knocked around. Look for them to help this total today, and take over 9.5.

LA/PHI – It has been fairly well-documented that the Dodgers have been pitching AMAZING at home, especially Derek Lowe. The under is 14-10 in his starts, but as a team the under is 6-2 following a loss (last 8) (LAD lost past 2 to SF). I feel like Lowe should be able to rebound from his past outing where he ran his road ERA to 5.88 compared to a 2.72 ERA at home (1.24 ERA last 4 starts at home). He is also 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA in 6 starts vs. these Phillies. Kyle Kendrick has not been as well documented as Lowe, but he has had the same success recently. He is leading the Phils in wins with 10 and has a 1.45 ERA in his last 3 starts. He is only 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in 2 career starts vs. the Dodgers, but they both came last season. He is starting to come into his own in his second season, and the Phillies have been struggling to score runs of late. I love the under of 8.0.

PICK WINNERS MAKE MONEY.

pj20

Rough weekend - new approach

So after 3 straight losing days (1-3 for back-to-back-to-back days, and NOT happy about it), I decided to go all Jerry McGuire on this beast. Fewer picks, more research. I got some great stuff today, I should be able to post at lunchtime.

Everyone vote on the poll! Hope you got down on the Mets runline like I did!

pj20

Picks for Friday August 8, 2008

HOU/CIN – Wolf vs. Cueto -129, 9.5
Cueto 0-3 with a 6.30 ERA past 5 starts and the Reds have averaged only 3.2 runs and batted .224 while losing 11 of their last 13 games. Wolf is 7-2 with a 3.20 ERA in 13 starts versus the Reds, and has held them to two runs and eight hits while striking out 20 in 14 innings spanning his last two starts against them -- both victories. Cueto has lost each of his first two career starts against the Astros, giving up five runs and eight hits in each game. Neither pitcher has been throwing that great (combined 11 ERA last 5 games), but the offenses has both been a little stale also. I think today though there should be some runs put up on the board. But you never can tell with rookies, which person will show up. I’d be inclined to take the over, but I’m staying away.

FLA/NYM – Nolasco vs. Perez -130, 8.5
Perez is pretty hot coming into this match-up with a 2.56 ERA and 33 k’s in his last 5 starts, despite only winning one decision (blew it last time I recommended him also). Nolasco has pitched a gem against them already this year, but the middle of the lineup is hitting a combined .500 against him for their careers. However, “Nolasco is 2-0 with a 2.43 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 29 2-3 innings over his last four road starts. He's won his last two outings at New York, posting a 3.60 ERA. Nolasco, though, has struggled when facing Wright, who is 8-for-16 with a homer against him.” “Oliver Perez went 2-1 with a 1.36 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 39 2-3 innings over his previous six starts. He capped off that stretch -- which included a 1-0 record and 1.31 ERA in three games at Shea -- with a strong outing at Florida on July 29, giving up one run and five hits with five strikeouts in six innings of a 4-1 victory.” I’m not making a recommendation here, I’m just laying out the facts. I think this is enough to get me to consider both the Mets ML and Under 8.5.

SD/COL – Peavy vs. Rusch
Glendon Rusch has actually pitched really well the past few starts with a 3.67 ERA, and a 3-0 record in his past 5. He has to face Jake Peavy though, the reigning NL CY Young winner. The Rockies are MUCH better at home, so a small underdog is about right. The total is not Coors-ian today (only 9.0), but that is more an indication Peavy is starting. I’d stay away.

CLE/TOR – Reyes vs. Purcey -120, 9.5
"The Blue Jayslook for their fifth win in a row overall -- and their ninth straight against teams from the Central -- when they open a three-game home series with the Cleveland Indians on Friday. Toronto will hope to get a better start from David Purcey (1-2, 8.35 ERA) than what it's seen in the rookie's first four starts. He lasted five innings at Texas on Sunday, giving up five runs on just three hits -- all homers. The left-hander has allowed six home runs in the first 18 1-3 innings of his career." "Newcomer Anthony Reyes will make his first appearance with the Indians since they acquired him from St. Louis prior to the trade deadline. Reyes, who was 2-1 with a 4.91 ERA in 10 relief appearances with St. Louis, was once considered the Cardinals' top prospect and won Game 1 of the 2006 World Series."

ATL/ARI - This has been an up and down season for Doug Davis (cancer, near perfect game, got lit last start), but it has been pretty much all up for Jorge Campillo (not the Braves though). Campillo is almost 30, but still has rookie status. He is 6-4 with a 2.92 ERA since joining the rotation, and is 3-0 with a 1.26 ERA in his last 5 starts. Davis gave up 5 earned in his last start (1.2 IP), and is 1-0 with a 2.42 ERA in 4 starts vs. the Braves. Since I don't have much confidence in either team's offense right now, I am going to recommend the Under of 9.0.

Accidently deleted my research on these 2 games, but I am putting money down on both. Sorry no stats...

MIN/KC - Kevin Slowey has been really up and down, but when he is up, he is UP. He looks to dominate an offense that is one of the leagues worst, and faces a pitcher I have little to no respect for. The Twins are clearly the better team, so at -135, I'll take my chances.

CHW/BOS - Battle of 2 talented lefties with super-offenses behind them. Buehrle just recently ending a dominating run that seemingly lasted for 2 months, and Lester has a 2.14 ERA (4-0) in his last 5 starts. The difference between the 2 is how their opponents fare against LHP. Boston eats LH pitching for breakfast, while Buehrle has typically struggled against the Sox in the past. I'm still searching for the reason Lester is only a -115 favorite here. Take it.

pj20

Feel like gambling? Here are some underdog picks for 08-08-08

PIT/PHI – Maholm +160 vs. Blanton, 10
My first underdog pick is because of the starting pitching match-up. For the Pirates, Paul Maholm has a 3.60 ERA, 1.11 WHIP last 5 starts. His best start of the season was against the Phillies (2-hitter), and he is 3-1 vs. them in his career. He did struggle in his last outing, but that was in Chicago. He had given up 2 ER or less in 5 of the previous 6. The Phillies on the other hand have been struggling. “They have been held to 17 runs in six games this month, going 3-3, after scoring 40 during a five-game winning streak to close July.” Their pitcher, “Blanton won for the first time since joining the Phillies in a mid-July trade with Oakland. He's 6-12 overall and had a 6.65 ERA in his previous 12 outings, going 3-6.” There is no way Blanton, or the Phillies deserve this price.

WAS/MIL – Balester +270 vs. Sabathia, 8
The reason I chose to highlight this game is two-fold. Firstly, I don’t think the Nationals get ANY credit ever, but this is also the biggest line I’ve ever seen. “The Nationals will send rookie Collin Balester (2-3, 4.55 ERA) to the mound Friday. While the right-hander has struggled to pitch deep into games, he has a 3.31 ERA in three starts since the All-Star break. He beat Cincinnati on Sunday, allowing one run in 5 1-3 innings of a 4-2 win.” The Brewers offense has not been crushing the ball lately, and “The Brewers and Nationals split four games in Washington in May, but the Nats were swept in a three-game series the last time they visited Milwaukee from May 7-9, 2007.” Worth a chance?

TEX/BAL – Mendoza +155vs. Guthrie, 9.5
This isn’t the biggest line, but I think Texas definitely has a chance to win this game, and at that price is a bargain. Texas starter Mendoza beat the Orioles in his lone appearance against them last year, allowing one run in five innings of Texas' 3-2 win on Sept. 21. The Rangers have won four of six overall in the season series with the Orioles, dropping both series openers but bouncing back to win the final two games of each three-game set. The reason the Orioles are such heavy favorites is because their starter Guthrie is 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA over his last 5 starts, and the Orioles are 23-14 in night games at home.

TB/SEA – Shields vs. Silva +160, 8.5
I hate the Mariners right now, but there is no denying that they are starting to show some signs of life. Plus, they get to play the Rays (AL best home record) at home. The same can be said for Shields, who “has pitched at home this season, however, he hasn't been the same away from St. Petersburg. He's 7-1 with a 2.21 ERA at Tropicana Field, but 2-6 with a 5.93 ERA on the road, where Tampa Bay has lost seven of his 10 starts.” Shields hasn't faced the Mariners this season, but he has a 1.57 ERA in three career starts against them and went eight innings both times he pitched at Safeco Field. The Mariners Carlos Silva, however, has a 1.57 ERA in 3 starts vs TB (none this year though). My main reason for liking the M’s is Raul Ibanez. “Ibanez, who many thought would be dealt to a contender at the trade deadline, has been baseball's best hitter over the last week. The left fielder is batting .480 (12-for-25) with three homers and 16 RBIs in his last six games.”
pj20

My bad

Oops. 4-4 after 4 innings.

I could not have been further from the actual results with my prediction. This goes to show that no matter how many stats you have, you still: a) need to be able to read into them and b) need to be prepared for bad breaks, poor outings, etc... You gut feeling is not enough, and statistics can be misleading.

Point is, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. All that matters in gambling on baseball is winners and losers, the journey is not important. Some people learn that the hard way.

It it makes anyone feel better, I put my money where my mouth (er, keyboard) is, and bet heavy on the under myself. I lost, and am not currently too happy of a camper.

They can't all be winners!

One game for Thursday August 7, 2008

This is possibly my pick of the week right here, and I know I am only setting myself up for failure by saying so. But truth be told, even though I’m 0-2 in my last 2 Strong Picks, I would make those same bets again if I had the chance. They call it gambling for a reason.

Tor/Oak - Every single thing I have researched and think, says this game goes under the posted total of 7.0, even though that is an extremely low total. I half-expected it to be set at 5.5. Put it this way, the total has gone under in 6 of the last 7 games in this series, and the Under is 22-7 in Oakland’s last 29 overall. Even Toronto on the year is only 45-62 on the over. The SP’s in this game are two of the AL’s hottest/best. The MLB ERA leader “has never made a start against the Blue Jays, though he has a 1.96 ERA in 10 relief appearances against them, giving up four runs and 10 hits in 18 1-3 innings.” Burnett is 7-2 in his last nine outings, with a 3.28 ERA, and is facing an Oakland offense that has lost 9 in a row, and has averaged 2.65 runs while hitting .214 in its last 20 games. They lost all four of Duchscherer’s starts in that stretch even though he pitched great in 3 of them. One piece of evidence against this under is that Burnett is only 0-1 with a 6.97 ERA in 2 starts vs. the A’s, but the last time he faced them he only lost 3-1 (under). Plus, Oakland hasn’t scored more than 3 runs in any game during the 9 game losing streak. Obviously, the Duke should give the A’s a chance to stay in the game, and gives reason to fade Oakland, but in reality the A’s might not score a run. And despite Burnett’s struggles vs. the A’s, ask anyone who talks to me, the most weight for me goes to recent outings over career performance. Burnett is 4-1 with a 2.18 ERA in his past 5. TAKE THE UNDER, AND PREPARE FOR A GREAT PITCHERS DUEL.

Last 3 days 5-5 (0-2 on strong picks)

pj20

More picks for Wednesday

FLO/PHI – Sanchez is coming off his first start in 15 months, but it was a good start. Now he is facing a Phillies team that handed Moyer his first career loss vs. them in 11 tries last night. His opponent, Kyle Kendrick, had a 4.1 IP, 7 ER effort last time vs. these Marlins. All things being equal, I like the value for the Marlins at +135. Both of these teams can score runs, and I think it comes down to starting pitching in this one. Take a chance on the Fish at +135.

BOS/KC – Tim Wakefield has 10 quality starts in his past 12 games, but has only won 3 of those starts somehow. “The Red Sox (65-49) have scored three runs or fewer for Wakefield in eight of his last 12 outings, including a total of six runs in his last three starts.” However, those starts have been against much better offenses than the Royals. Luke Hochevar might provide Wakefield with that run support he needs too. “The right-hander is 1-4 with a 7.36 ERA and a .304 opponent batting average since July 1. He gave up four runs and a season high-tying 10 hits in six innings of Friday's 4-2 loss to the Chicago White Sox. Hochevar also struggled May 19 at Boston, allowing seven runs -- four earned -- five hits and six walks in six innings of a 7-0 defeat as he wound up on the losing end of Jon Lester's no-hitter.” Boston has too much to play for, and I think Wakefield at least throws a QS here, take the Red Sox -145.

LA/STL – I originally really liked the Dodgers in this one, although it is tough to gain from the stats. The most important thing in my mind though, is that Lowe, despite his lack of success vs the Cardinals in his career, is pitching too well right now. Here are a few quotes from the AP report. “Pineiro gave up six runs and 10 hits in six innings of a 9-4 loss at Atlanta on Thursday. Over his last four starts, the right-hander is 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA while allowing 10 hits in each contest.”...“In his only previous start versus the Dodgers, Pineiro allowed three earned runs in 6 1-3 innings of a 9-4 defeat to Los Angeles on June 20, 2006 while with Seattle.”...“The right-hander (lowe) is 3-1 with a 3.06 ERA in his last five outings, but 1-5 with a 5.24 ERA in six career starts against the Cardinals. He gave up two runs in seven innings of a 2-1 loss to St. Louis on May 23.” Read into that how you want, I'm taking the Dodgers -130.

Yesterday's Results 1-3
Monday's Results 2-1 (0-1 on strong picks)

pj20

Picks for Wednesday August 6, 2008

These are my favorite 2 games from the first set of research last night and this morning. The Twins game is set for an early start.

Min/Sea – This series has been a crazy one, as Minnesota has essentially tanked in the first two games, with their bullpen imploding in both. The Mariners, and especially Raul Ibanez, have come to life, and look to sweep the series. The Twins starter, Nick Blackburn, will give the Twins a chance to salvage the series though. Here’s another rookie, but you’d never know it by the way he’s been playing. “He appears to be getting stronger as the season goes on. The 26-year-old had a 2.45 ERA in July and he started off August with a brilliant seven-inning, six-hit, one-run showing against Cleveland, Aug. 1. Control is this young pitcher’s greatest strength; he’s walked just six batters in his last 10 starts.” Seattle’s starter Washburn has a 3.90 ERA in his past 5 starts, but is only 1-3 in that span and has only struck out 13 batters in the past 32.1 IP. The Twins are clearly the better team, and they need this game to stay on pace with Detroit and the White Sox. They get back in the win column today, Twinkies -135.

DET/CHW – This is a clash of two of the best offenses in the AL, against 2 above-average starting pitchers. “Verlander does have a nine-inning one-run gem against Chicago this season but consider this: in four starts against the White Sox this year, including the complete-game gem, Verlander has a 6.15 ERA. Besides that good outing, he's allowed 17 earned runs (22 total) in 17 1/3 innings.” On the other side, “ John Danks has only been average at home this season, with a 4.04 ERA in 11 starts at U.S. Cellular Field (2.63 ERA on the road).” He also has a streak of 3 straight non-quality starts. Not the type of confidence you’d want in your SP, despite his talent level. Both teams have played over in 3 straight games, and the bullpens are a little overworked (Detroit’s is in shambles). “Tigers relievers are 22-for-42 in save situations and have yielded 17 runs in 21 innings during the team's skid.” I think this game goes over 9.5 relatively easily.

pj20

A couple more games later...

Picks for Tuesday August 5, 2008

FRUSTRATING DAY YESTERDAY, as the Twins blew a 6-0 sixth inning lead as my strong pick of the day. More on that later.

Phi/Flo – Jamie Moyer OWNS the Marlins. Plain and simple, “Moyer (10-6, 3.79 ERA) has won each of his 10 starts against the Marlins, including three this season, while posting a 3.03 ERA.” Overall, he is 3-0 in his last 5 starts, and the Phillies have won 8 of 9. The only thing that might stand in the way of 11-0 for Moyer will be Josh Johnson, who just got his first win since coming back from Tommy-john. He’s looked really good so far, and the Marlins are 4-0 when he starts. But he is facing a hot Phillies team, and only has a 4.64 ERA vs. Philly in 3 career starts. I’ll back the hot squad at home, Phillies -145.

LAD/STL – These teams both have reason for optimism the rest of the way out. The Dodgers just got Manny and are looking to get right back in the hunt of the NL West race. Their starter has been awesome lately. “The right-hander has allowed two runs and 10 hits in 16 2-3 innings over his last two starts. He was outstanding Wednesday, throwing his first career shutout by scattering five hits and striking out eight in a 4-0 victory over San Francisco…Billingsley is 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA in three games -- two starts -- against the Cardinals.” The Cards on the other hand are getting former CY Young winner Chris Carpenter back. He’s making his first start at home since 2006, and should provide an emotional lift. However, with Ankiel banged up and Pujols struggling, I will take advantage of a rusty Carpenter, and take the Dodgers -115. Interesting note, this game opened with St. Louis as a -120 favorite, and has since changed significantly.

NYY/Tex – I shouldn’t need a lot of stats to convince you that the Yankees and Rangers both know how to put some runs on the board. Especially when they play each other. The last 2 games have both played over the current total of 11.5, and the 2 prior games were played in Yankee stadium. The weather is expected to reach 100+ again, and that means the ball will be flying. Texas’ starter, Matt Harrison is 1-2 with a 9.35 ERA in his last four starts, and has never faced these Yankees (although they are less potent vs LH pitching). Pettitte has been less-than-stellar lately, posting a 4.05 ERA in his last 5 starts, winning 3 of them. I think this game could get ugly, quickly, so look for lots of runs and take over 11.5.

TB/Cle – I’ve been accused lately of taking a lot of Rays unders, and with good reason. I believe in their pitching staff, and not as much in their offense. For this matchup, here is another stat to look at. “The Indians are the only AL team the Rays have not beaten this season, as Tampa Bay's pitching has failed to deliver against Cleveland. Rays pitchers have a 7.68 ERA versus the Indians, nearly three runs worse than they've been against any other opponent.” However, “One pitcher the Indians have not beaten this year is Edwin Jackson, who didn't pitch in last month's series. Jackson (7-7, 4.20 ERA) made three starts against Cleveland last year, going 0-1 despite a 3.00 ERA.” His opponent, Fausto Carmona, is returning from a hip injury, but looked great in his last start where he beat Detroit. He pitched well in his only career start vs. these Rays, and I look for him to pitch well again. With Carl Crawford banged up, both pitchers should be able to contain the other team’s hitters again. If Edwin can avoid the long ball (6 in past 5 starts despite a 3.77 ERA), I really like this game to go under 8.5 again. Plus, Cleveland has played under in 4 straight games.

pj20

Not a lot of time today, so possibly more to come today, but definately more tomorrow...

Picks for Monday August 4, 2008

A LOT of heavy favorites today, gamble at your own risk. If I have time, I would love to put a piece out on my "underdog program". For now, let's concentrate on the games with reasonable prices.

Min/Sea – The Twins have the best record in the Majors in their last 41 games (28-13), while the Mariners have won only one of their past 8 home games (won last). “Seattle starter Miguel Batista (4-11, 6.43) continues to suffer through a brutal stretch, as he is 1-7 with a 7.11 ERA in 18 appearances -- 10 starts -- since May 16. The right-hander's 6.67 ERA in his 18 starts is the worst among major leaguers with at least 15 starts in 2008.” Glen Perkins, on the other hand is 8-3 on the year, and is coming off a win vs. the White Sox in his last start. The way the Twins have been playing, at -130, this is looking like the bargain of the day. Take the Twins -130 and don’t look back.

TB/Cle – The Rays have been great this season, and especially at home, where they have the AL’s best record at 43-16. Cliff Lee leads the AL in era, and has been brilliant against the Rays (1.57 ERA, last 3 outings vs. them). The Rays have won 11 of 16 since their last series vs. Cleveland, and they look to carry their momentum. Garza has been a different pitcher at home, going 6-1 with a 2.10 ERA in 10 starts at Tropicana this season. His last start was on the road, but it was also his first CG shutout of his career. The only poor performance in the last month was vs. these Indians, but he’s pitched well enough lately to call that an aberration. I think pitching will be the story in this game as well, and I’m taking the under of 7.5.

Atl/SF – If there is one thing I’ve learned as a Giants fan, it’s that they DO NOT score any runs for Matt Cain. It is almost a proven fact. The good thing for bettors is that Matt Cain does not give up many runs himself. He’s allowed only 1 homer since May, and the Braves lineup is bordering a AAA squad. I would love to recommend Cain as a small underdog of -105, but the reality is the Giants might not score a run off Jair today either. With the AT&T park factor, and the way these two have been pitching, I expect a duel to the end, with neither team getting much offensive output. The Giants have been under in five straight, while the Braves have been under in 3 straight. Look for that to continue, and take Under 7.0.

Notes on some heavy favorites....

Oak/Tor – The A’s have been horrible against anyone lately, and today will be no easier. But, they have a few things going for them. First, they have won 7 straight road games against the Blue Jays, and Halladay is only 5-4 with a 4.90 ERA against them. Halladay has won 3 straight decisions vs them, but the price he commands is unreasonable at -210. If you feel like taking a shot at an underdog, this seems like a great place to do it, as Gallagher should be able to keep the A’s in the game.

Bal/LAA – “The Orioles have hit well off Joe Saunders in two previous starts (5.40 ERA), including just two weeks ago, when Saunders allowed four runs (three earned) in 6 2/3 innings. The O's are also fairly tough on lefties, with a team OPS of .797 against lefties this season, so Saunders is no slam-dunk start.”

Bos/KC – Gil Meche is 4-2 with a 3.69 ERA in 8 starts vs. the Red Sox. Plus, “The Royals have won eight of the right-hander's last nine starts, and he is 6-1 with a 2.78 ERA in that span. Meche limited Oakland to two runs while fanning eight over seven innings in 5-2 road victory on Tuesday.” Buchholz, on the other hand, has done NOTHING to deserve the -115 line he has, except have the Red Sox offense behind him. That, and the fact that 5 Royals got ejected last night just when they were starting to show some signs of life on offense. Stay away.

pj20

Picks for Saturday August 2, 2008 by K7

After a week of fourteen to fifteen hour days in the office, I hopped back on the horse with a little handicapping last night and ran off a 5-2 day. Winners included Minnesota on the run line for two units at +120, the Halos for two units, DBacks for two units, Los Gigantes for two units and the over in the Mets Houston for two units. My losers yesterday came in Seattle where the Orioles beat up on the Ms and Olson decided he wanted to display the nasty stuff that he showed off at Cal Poly (where he threw with my boy Hollywood Bud Norris) and I lost by a half a run (9.5 was the over) in a 9-0 Milwaukee win over Atlanta. Overall, strong day and looking to continue things today...

Pirates versus Cubs... Glance quickly at this game and what immediately jumps out at you? Well if you're like me, you notice the Cubs are at home (where they play out of their skulls) and you see that heavy -200 line next to Ted Lilly's name. The bookies are telling you that Lilly is a lock here. Ahhh, but not so fast my friend. Let's break down these numbers. The Cubs are a tremendous home team (39-15) and that is absolutely getting taken into consideration with this line, but in their last fourteen games Chicago is a very human 7-7 at Wrigley Field including yesterday's loss to the Pirates. Solid home team of not, this line is simply too heavy. The Pirates are sending quality start machine, Paul Maholm (7-6, 3.79 ERA), to the hill and he is yet to lose to the Cubs in his career. He is 4-0 despite posting a 6.15 ERA in seven career outings against Chicago, and the Pirates have won six of those appearances. The left-hander, who went 2-1 with a 2.43 ERA in five July starts, equaled a career high with nine strikeouts and yielded one run and four hits in seven innings in his most recent turn in the rotation. Ted Lilly allowed three runs and seven hits -- two homers -- in six innings Monday, but didn't receive a decision in a 6-4 win at Milwaukee. The left-hander is 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA in seven career appearances against Pittsburgh and he sports an 8.38 ERA against them this year. ESPN notes that Lilly has two rotten starts against Pittsburgh this year, allowing 17 hits in 9 2/3 innings. Lilly has also been much worse at home this season with a 5.34 ERA at Wrigley Field, compared to 3.89 on the road. Leave him on the bench for this one. In over 100 cumulative ABs the Pirates lineup is hitting above .300 against Lilly. Maholm always gives the Pirates a chance to win and is 5-1 in his last 11 starts. There's simply too much value here to ignore it. Let's go against the popular consensus and let's look for the value priced underdog to start our Saturday off right. I'm going Maholm and the Pirates for 2 units...

Brewers versus Braves... Looking at the basics, the Braves are a solid and not spectacular 32-24 at home and the Brewers are a solid and not spectacular 29-26 on the road. Look closer at the Brewers road numbers and you will see that they have won eight straight road games since the All-Star break, outscoring their opponents by an absurd 50-19. Milwaukee won the opener in this road series 9-0, in an important game after struggling in their previous series against the Cubs. Today, Milwaukee sends CC Sabathia to the mound and that means trouble for Braves hitters. Sabathia has a .50 ERA on the road in his first two starts away from Miller Park since his move to the NL (both were complete games) and his July ERA was 2.27. The man is obviously dealing lately and I look for him to continue his momentum today. August is statistically Sabathia's best month in the past three years, as his 10-2 W/L record in 17 starts and 2.49 ERA displays. Atlanta counters Milwaukee's left-handed ace with Charlie Morton. Who you ask? I said Charlie Morton, he of a 7.26 ERA and 1.66 WHIP this season. Yes, Charlie Morton the guy with a 0-3 record at home and a 10.70 ERA. Opponents are actually hitting .375 with a .1010 OPS against Morton at home versus his impressive .200 batting average against and .621 OPS on the road. He is 0-1 this year against the Brewers, whom he had a quality start against at Miller Park, going 6 innings and allowing 7 hits and 4 runs (only two earned). That doesn't mean that the Brewers didn't see the ball well though facing him as the collective lineup has a .292 batting average against him. Since then, there's been trouble for Morton and he's seen his ERA rise from 4.24 to its current level of 7.26. That's a huge leap folks. Can you tell who I like in this game? The line is heavy at -200, and I like the Brewers enough here that I'm recommending them on the run line at -120. The Brewers continue their fantastic play on the road and Sabathia shuts down the Braves and I'll put 2 units on the run line...

White Sox versus Royals... Chicago won the opener in this series 4-2 behind Javier Vazquez and the under won (PJ, you talked me off both those picks in our quick conversation last night) and according to ESPN look for things to remain the same. Mark Buehrle is a great start against Kansas City. He has a 1.88 ERA in two starts against the Royals this year and is 17-7 lifetime against the club. What do David DeJesus, John Buck, Esteban German, Billy Butler and Alex Gordon all have in common when it comes to Buehrle? They have each faced him at least 10 times and have a batting average below the Mendoza line. The Royals entire roster is hitting just .228 against Buehrle in 228 total at bats. Chicago's consistent lefty has split his two starts against the Royals this season, losing in Kansas City on July 10 despite allowing just two unearned runs over 7 1-3 innings in a 4-1 loss. He had been 3-0 with a 2.67 ERA in his previous four starts at Kauffman Stadium. Kansas City counters with Kyle Davies. The right-hander is 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA in two starts against the White Sox this year. He pitched 5 2-3 innings against them on July 8, allowing three runs in a 13-inning, 8-7 loss. The White Sox lineup has a career .354 batting average against Davies. The under is actually 9-0 in Kansas City's last 9 games against teams with winning records and in their last 9 on grass, so those numbers and Buehrle's might point me towards the under but I also am recommending the White Sox here if you're willing to lay the -150. I am, so I'm going 2 units on the White Sox to win and 1 unit on under 5 runs through 5 innings and 1 unit on under 9.5 for the game

Angels versus Yankees... I'm sitting in my apartment doing research and it's been raining all day. I mean, legit thunder shower rain. I'm not doing much research on this game because I don't believe it's actually going to get played but here is what ESPN says Jered Weaver looked pretty sharp in his most recent outing in Fenway Park and now travels to Yankee Stadium, where he is 2-0 in his career with a 3.27 ERA. Weaver should come close to a quality start, but he'll have to duel with Mike Mussina for the win. ... As for Mussina, he had a rough outing against Baltimore, but still escapes July with a 2.61 ERA in 31 innings in which he only walked two batters while striking out 27. Let's just say it was a good month. The Moose should be a good start versus the Angels. He has held Vladimir Guerrero (26 at-bats) and Mark Teixeira (25) below the Mendoza line against him. Torii Hunter, who has faced Mussina 42 times, has just 10 hits in those at-bats (.238). Those numbers make under 9 a good bet but I really don't see this game getting played based off the weather at the moment and the afternoon start time...

Col/Fla – Talking about pitchers with my friends recently, we were talking about people who had the perception of being bad, but that you can’t really judge until you watch them pitch. Ubaldo Jimenez was my prime example. I once heard Peter Gammons refer to him as a guy who comes around in an organization “maybe once every decade”. I became intrigued from there, and I have since watched him pitch numerous times. The point of all this? He is an extremely talented pitcher who doesn’t get the credit he deserves, because he is young and inconsistent. Lately, however, “With six scoreless innings against the Reds in his most recent start, Ubaldo Jimenez improved his ERA to a 2.07 mark in his past 10 starts. The Marlins' offense has struggled in July and actually hits worse at home than on the road, so there's no reason Jimenez shouldn't continue to pitch well and possibly pick up his seventh win in nine starts.” He faces a rookie in Chris Volstad, who has also had a phenomenal start to his career, starting 2-1 with a 2.38 era, and 1.19 whip. The Marlins are playing too well to take Ubaldo straight up, but I like the promise that Volstad has shown (3 QS – @LAD, Atl, @Chc) as well as the fact the Rockies don’t hit as well on the road. I like under 9.0 as both pitchers keep up their good pitching.

Atl/Mil – Both teams are kind of in a funk right now, but for different reasons. The Braves just avoided being swept by the Cards, while the Brewers just got swept at home by the Cubs. “A meeting with the Braves (50-58) could be a good opportunity for the Brewers to get back on track. Milwaukee has won four of six games against Atlanta this season, including two of three at Turner Field from June 23-25.” The starting pitchers have opposite track records against their opponents, but neither has pitched well this year at all. Suppan is 0-4 with a 7.25 era in 4 games at Turner field, while James is 1-0 with a 1.42 era in 2 games vs. the Brewers. The Brewers are pissed, and are going to be looking to end their five game win streak, so I think there will be some runs on the board. That, coupled with the fact that both teams have played over in their past 6 games (braves 8 straight), leads me to believe they go over 9.5 again.

LAD/Ari – The Dodgers seem motivated finally to go out and win the NL west. But the fact of the matter is, the title still goes through Arizona. The D’backs were able to get past Lowe last night, and tonight they get a slightly easier opponent in the rookie Clayton Kershaw, who has been pitching much better since his recent re-callup. Randy Johnson, though, has won 4 straight starts, and has finally found his grove as well. “Johnson has a 15-inning scoreless streak over his last three starts -- his longest since 19 straight in September 2002 -- and has a 1.71 ERA in winning his last four starts. This run came after he posted a 7.94 ERA in losing his previous six outings.” Even with Manny’s first game in LA, I think the D’backs have plenty of offense to get to Kershaw, and Randy Johnson has enough in the tank to get to LA hitters. As an underdog, I like the D’backs +110 to take this game as well for good value.

SF/SD – A la Danny Haren, it doesn’t matter who Tim Lincecum is facing these days, you figure he always has a shot for a win. Therefore, I’m only going to give you a few quotes. One, “the Giants (44-63) won the only two meetings of 2008 in San Diego, holding the Padres to two runs from April 23-24.” Two, “San Diego will hand the ball to rookie Josh Banks (3-4, 3.92 ERA), who won for the first time in nearly two months on Saturday despite allowing five runs in 5 2-3 innings in a 9-6 victory in Pittsburgh. The right-hander, who yielded two homers for the third time in four starts, had gone 0-4 with a 5.03 ERA in eight outings since his last win on May 31 in San Francisco.” As for the Franchise, the stats back him up as well. “The Giants will counter with Tim Lincecum (11-3, 2.78 ERA), who owns a 1.58 ERA and a 1-1 record in five career starts against the Padres. In three starts against San Diego this season, the right-hander is 1-0 with an 0.93 ERA.” I will back Lincecum as the stopper, and the Giants -140 get back on track.

Other games of interest….

Det/TB – The way Detroit has been hitting the ball, even against Kazmir, a +170 price tag is probably worth the gamble.

Oak/Bos – Wakefield vs. Duchscherer, I think getting the era leader at +140 is also great value, but risky at the defending champs. I’d stay away.

Sea/Bal – I actually really like the Mariners -125 as a sneaky play. Usually that offense can’t be trusted, but at home vs Garret Olson, who has an 8.77 era in his past 5 starts, is a good play. Plus, they are coming off a big win vs. Texas, and Washburn has a 2.67 era over his past 5. The only good stat I have for Baltimore is that they have won 7 of 8 vs. the Mariners so far this season, but 6 of those were in April. The Mariners have 6 consecutive games with 11 plus hits. Take the M’s -125.

PICK WINNERS, MAKE MONEY.

Wednesday's Results - 4-2 (1-0 on strong endorsements)
Yesterday's Results - Not good

pj20

Picks for Thursday July 31, 2008

So after a Dave Bush gave up a grandslam, that Brewers recommendation this morning isn't looking like such great value afterall.

Red - Strong Endorsement, Bold Underline - good bet.

Sea/Tex – I got 2 stats for you. First, the Mariners are 2-7 when R.A Dickey starts, and second, the Rangers have the most runs scored in the league. Even though Harrison is not that great (7.32 ERA in 4 starts), the Rangers have been pretty hot recently and should be able to at least outscore the M’s. The oddsmakers must agree with that, as they set the line at a relatively high -150. Still, I think the Rangers take this one is a high-scoring battle. Texas -150 is a good bet if you can pay the price.

Ari/LAD – This is lowest total the oddsmakers could have drawn up, and all the evidence seems to support it. The problem is, 6.5 runs can be scored by one team if just one of the SP’s pitches less than stellar. Both these teams have capable offenses that have been inconsistent this year. Lowe,…”was roughed up a bit in early May, but since then has been a major asset in mixed leagues. Lowe finished May with seven shutout innings against the potent Cubs at Wrigley Field. He then posted a 2.81 ERA in June and is 3-0 so far in July, with his most recent start an eight-inning one-hitter versus the Nationals. Lowe has already beaten Arizona twice this year and is in solid midseason form.” He is really starting to heat up, and when he faces a former CY Young winner, the potential is definitely there for a 1-0 game. “Webb (14-4, 3.14) has been impressive all season, but he's been especially good lately -- going 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last four starts. He has also dominated division opponents, going 7-0 with a 2.20 ERA in eight starts as NL West hitters are batting .199 against him.“ But here is something else interesting. The under has won in 5 of the last 6 games for the Dodgers, but 3 of those games were shutouts (2 vs SF). 6 of the 8 meetings between these teams have gone over though, and none have been set at 6.5. Also, the over is 12-7 in Webb’s starts this season. Unless you think one (or both) pitchers are going to throw shutouts, I think this game goes over 6.5.

Atl/Stl - The Braves lineup looks pretty sorry without Brian McCann, Chipper Jones, and Mark Teixera. To be able to get the Cardinals at this good a price, you should probably take it. Hampton hasn’t shown much since he came back from his 32nd DL stint of his career. Pujols and Co. are gaining momentum, and they are looking to sweep the series in Atlanta for the first time since they moved from Milwaukee. Cardinals -125 win this one in another high-scoring game.

LAA/NYY - Best record in baseball, no love. I know why, they are the Bronx Bombers, but still Pettite is facing one of the hottest teams in the league. The Angels though, have the best road record as well, and their starting pitcher has at least been pitching well enough to keep them in games. “He improved to 2-1 despite a 5.70 ERA in four starts in July by winning Saturday at Baltimore as he yielded five runs over 5 1-3 innings in an 11-6 victory.” The Angels and Yankees have both been putting up football scores, and I think this one will be another similar contest. The Angels are great value at +135, but I think this game goes over 9.5 pretty easily.

CHW/Min - This game features 2 pretty good pitchers, and 2 pretty good offenses. "The Twins right-hander has allowed more than three runs only twice all year, both times on the road against good offenses (Texas and Detroit.) He even notched 11 strikeouts and just one walk in those two subpar outings. For the season, Baker owns a sporty 81/18 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His 1.11 WHIP is the seventh-lowest in the major leagues among full-time starting pitchers." My original thought was to take the White Sox, but when I saw that Baker was only a -125 favorite, I am switching to the Twins. The game is a little risky though, even though the Twins play so well at home, mainly because Danks has good numbers vs these Twins, and Chicago can easily put some runs on the board. I'd stay away.

PICK WINNERS, MAKE MONEY

Wednesday's Results 2-3 (1-0 on strong endorsments)
Yesterday's Results 4-2 (1-0 on strong endorsements)

pj20

Thursday morning...

Another positive day! 4-2 was good for +290 units again yesterday, with another 1-0 on strong endorsements. People were following my lead, and jumped all over Danny Haren, who pitched a gem after giving up 2 runs in the first. The D'backs received all five votes yesterday, and they won easily, 8-3. The Astros and Mets made it interesting until the end, but alas came up short.

Chc/Mil - Oh man, this is the series that keeps on giving. Two teams battling each other keep throwing out some of the best starters in the National League. On the surface, it would seem the Cubs have the clear advantage. Look closer, and you can see that Dave Bush has a 2.95 ERA and .266 BAA at home. Also, “Bush has made three July starts, spanning 21 innings, and for the month he's notched 25 strikeouts and has not issued a single walk!” In his career vs the Cubs though, he hasn’t fared so well. “The right-hander has struggled no matter where he's faced the Cubs, going 1-6 with a 4.88 ERA. He allowed six runs in 5 1-3 innings of a 6-3 loss at Chicago on April 3 for his fourth consecutive defeat to the Cubs.” The Brewers haven’t broken out offensively yet, but they are capable of doing so at any time. Meanwhile, Harden hasn’t won a game yet as a Cub (3 starts), “Harden (0-1, 1.04 ERA) has allowed two earned runs and eight hits in 17 1-3 innings over three starts since being traded to Chicago from Oakland on July 8. He's struck out 10 in each contest .“ Sometimes, you just got to go with your gut. It is very hard to sweep a team on the roal in the MLB, especially a team as potent as the Brewers. This represents some of the best value you will get all year with them, Take a chance on the Brew-crew at +130.

Yesterday's Results 4-2 (1-0 on strong endorsements)

pj20

Picks for Wednesday July 30, 2008

Red - strong endorsement, Bold Underline - good bet.

Phi/Was - This one seems like such a no-brainer, it almost kind of worries me. Moyer has owned the Nats in the past (7 wins in 94 IP, with a 2.96 ERA), and has been pitching extremely effectively the past month, especially for a 57 year old. Plus, he will have the Phillies offense backing him. The Nationals counter with perhaps their best chance of winning however, as Redding has also pitched well against the Phillies (2.34 ERA, 1.14 WHIP). This year, he hasn't even give up a run in 13.1 IP. But Moyer carries a 2.93 era in road starts this year, and the Nats might be without their all-star Guzman. I still like the Phillies -135 here, but Reddings success vs the Phils keeps me from making a strong endorsement. Neither offense is playing well either, but the total was set at 9. I'd take advantage of that too.

Chc/Mil - This series has been an absolute BATTLE so far, with the Cubs beating CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets on back-to-back night in Milwaukee. The Brewers offense has been slowed by great starting pitching, and today's matchup doesn't seem to get any easier. At least however, the Brew-crew roll more than 2 deep. ESPN notes that..."Parra's first loss in nine decisions and 15 starts can be attributed to David Riske, as the reliever allowed all three inherited runners to score July 25 in Houston. Parra had pitched a shutout until loading the bases in the seventh and getting the hook. Look for the rookie lefty to right the ship against the Cubs. Chicago has just a league-average .751 OPS in July". The Brewers are set at slight favorites, but Dempster has pitched well all season, and in his career vs. the Cubs. Like I said the past 2 days, this game could easily go either way, so I'd either take the Cubs for value, or stay away. I'm not betting this game.

Cin/Hou - Houston has taken the first two games of the series, scoring 11 runs in the 2 wins, but 8 of them can be attributed to timely grand slams. Ironically, I won a bet on Monday because of one, and lost on Tuesday because of the other. Either way, Houston has all the momentum (their win streak vs. Cinncy has reached eight) and they send their best home pitcher to the mound. Wandy Rodriguez has a 2.54 era at Minute Maid and should be able to handle the Reds. Also, there might be reason to be concerned about Edinson, who is a rookie after all. "He is quickly approaching his career high for innings (144 2/3 between the minors and majors last season) and might be suffering from fatigue. That would certainly explain his uninspiring starts in his two most recent outings. In fact, throw out his 10-strikeout performance against the Brewers on July 12, and Volquez has whiffed only 14 batters in his previous 24 2/3 innings. That's a K/9 of 5.11, well below his season K/9 of 9.52." You are getting Wandy at a discounted price because of Volquez's potential. But at Minute Maid park, and the way Edinson has been pitching, I'm all over the Astros -115.

NYM/Flo – Mike Pelfrey has been on fire in the month of July, going deep into ballgames, and not giving up runs. But more importantly, he has won SEVEN straight decisions. The last team to beat him was these Marlins, but the Mets havn’t lost a game he’s started since. Josh Johnson is coming off Tommy John, but he actually looked really impressive. In three career starts versus New York, Johnson is 2-0, giving up seven hits and three runs (0ER) over 17 innings. But the Mets are really starting to hit their stride. This should be a great divisional match-up, but I think you have to back Pelfrey and the Mets -120 until they prove otherwise.

Col/Pit - The runs have come in bunches and have not seemed to stop in this series. Yesterday's game just barely went under the 10.5 total (sorry bout that one), but the Rockies are still on an absolute tear right now. I don't need any stats for this one to know that it will be an extremely unpredictable game. I love Aaron Cook, but at -165, I think it is too expensive.

Ari/SD - I don't really need stats when Danny Haren is pitching these days, because no matter who he faces/where he faces them, I pretty much EXPECT him to win. It reminds me of the tear that Webb went on last year where he threw like 35 straight scoreless. The dude was unconscious. Haren is pitching like that over the last month. The stats? They do back him up. Haren is still maintaining a 0.96 WHIP (for the SEASON) and has allowed just two earned runs in 14 innings against the Padres this season. For his career he has a 1.50 era vs San Diego. The only question is the price, but this one seems managable again. I will continue to ride the Haren-train until he takes a Pujols ball off the face or something. Take the D'backs -140 all day long.

Chc/Min - "Gavin Floyd has three quality starts against the Twins this season, while compiling a 2-1 record with a 2.11 ERA in those starts. Other than a rough outing in Arlington, Floyd has been just fine this month, with three quality starts in his other three efforts." The Twinkies have looked pretty impressive in the first two games, pounding them in a shutout game 1, and coming back from a 4-0 deficit in game 2. Plus, Livo "has enjoyed pitching in the Metrodome this season, compiling an 8-1 record with a 3.91 ERA." Too bad he can't bat in this game, because he went 3-3 with a jack vs. Floyd last time. The White Sox bats have been stymied for the entire series, and even with those decent Livo stats, it is still the same damn Livan Hernandez, we all know and hate. I think Floyd pitches his fourth quality start and gets enough run support. I think the White Sox -115 salvage this final game of the series.

And a few quick notes....

Ana/Bos - It is going to be really interesting to see how the Red Sox respond to losing the first two games and almost being no-hit last night at home. The Angels have to be riding high, especially after they landed the biggest name on the trading block in Mark Teixera. If you feel like gambling, the Angels are an absolute bargain at +170. They have baseball's best record!

Det/Ind - "The Tigers' are hitting great in the month of July (.824 OPS), but Cliff Lee's most recent opponent -- the Twins -- had been just about that good this month, too (.809 OPS), and Lee dominated them. There is some concern due to the fact that the Tigers (.834 OPS, second-best in majors) are much better than the Twins (.694 OPS) versus left-handers, but Lee has won 14 games this year for a reason." I love Cliff Lee, but I also love the Tigers offense. Something has to give, I just don't know what it is.

Tex/Sea - "Padilla has a 2 ERA in 3 starts vs the Mariners this season, and Texas has been pounding the ball. Seattle is also one of the worst teams in the league vs. RHP." Another 100+ degree day in Arlington, I'll take the guy who pitches there more. And Seattles offense is a little league team compared to Kinsler, Hamilton, Bradley and crew. Texas -185, if you have the balls. Over 11.5 is never a bad bet here either.

PICK WINNERS, MAKE MONEY.

Monday's results 4-1 (1-0 on strong endorsements)
Yesterday's results 2-3 (1-0 on strong endorsements)

pj20

Early pick - Wednesday July 30, 2008

KC/Oak - "The A's (.654 July OPS) and Royals (.679 July OPS) are among the bottom-five offenses for OPS this month. Both pitchers are coming off a 5 1/3-inning performance in which they allowed more runs than they were charged with, but should approach quality starts here thanks to the favorable matchup." The Royals have taken the first two games, however, and have hit 4 HR already. Reading this about Bannister, "My ball had a little more life and action to it" gives me confidence that he might be starting to turn things back around. Considering the Royals are going for their first sweep in Oakland in 20 years, and their bats have shown signs of life lately, I like the Royals as an underdog of +125. Plus, Bannister’s ERA is almost 2 runs lower during the day this year. Don't take the pick as an endorsement for Gallagher to pitch badly, however, I just think this represents great value for a team that is possibly starting to heat up vs. a team that hasn't really scored any runs lately.

Yesterday's Results 2-3 (1-0 on strong endorsements)

pj20

MLB picks for Tuesday July 29, 2008

Red - strong endorsement, Bold underline - good bet.

Stl/Atl - “St. Louis has scored the fifth-most runs in the NL (512), but has lacked consistency lately, scoring 22 runs in its last two wins and only 12 in its past six losses. The Cardinals finished with a season high in runs Monday after losing 9-1 to the New York Mets on Sunday.” Neither starter has any starts vs the opponent, but Campillo is coming off a win in his last decision (last start only 1.2 because of rain 2 days ago). Wellemeyer, on the other hand…”has been struggling lately, going 1-3 with a 7.00 ERA in his last seven starts after going 5-0 with a 1.88 ERA in his previous seven.” The Braves just put Chipper and Hudson on the DL, while the Cardinals just named Isringhausen the closer. Bottom line, these teams are a mess, but at least the Cardinals are in the thick of things. Atlanta has apparently thrown in the towel, as they announced that they were going to trade Teixera. If I had to make a bet here, I like over 9.0 again, as both teams have played over in at least 3 straight games (braves 5 straight).

Bos/LAA “Buchholz has struggled to a 6.60 ERA in three starts since his return to Beantown. That figure includes an eight-run drubbing (four earned) at the hands of the Angels slightly more than a week ago. The 23-year-old is still a great long-term property, but he's not in good current form” As for Lackey…“July has told a different story for the right-hander, who has a 7.61 ERA and a .346 opponent batting average this month while surrendering six runs in three of his four starts. Lackey's record is 2-1 in July, due to the fact the Angels have scored at least 10 runs for him in each of his last three outings. Lackey is 2-6 with a 6.01 ERA in 12 career outings versus Boston, but his only quality start this month came at home against the Red Sox (61-46). He limited them to three runs and five hits over seven innings of an 11-3 win July 18.” The Angels are 10-2 in their last 12 games, and have the best record in baseball. I remember doing this same research for this game the other week, and being brutally scared on Lackey’s numbers vs the Sox. I wasn’t sold with Buchholz, however, so I bet/won the over, which was set for 9.5 that day. Today’s is set for 9.0, and with the way these offenses are playing, I’d say that is a decent place to start. The Angels look motivated, but I can see the Sox touching Lackey a little bit again. I’d say the best bet here is over 9.0, so long as these current trends continue.

Cin/Hou - The Reds have lost four in a row, and 7 straight in their series with the Astros, but they have the clear edge in starting pitching tonight. I believe Arroyo will be their stopper. Both teams have capable offenses. “Bronson Arroyo may finally be coming around. The Reds right-hander is having his best month of the season and has won five straight starts. Arroyo has hurled 15 innings in his past two outings, surrendering five runs and compiling an 11-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.” “After giving up a career-high 10 runs in one inning of a road loss to Toronto on June 24, the right-hander has posted a 3.09 ERA while winning a career-high five consecutive starts.” Moehler, on the other hand, has only struck out 12 batters in his last 27 innings. While the Reds are strikeout-prone, it seems unlikely Moehler takes advantage. “The right-hander had posted a 3.72 ERA as a starter before giving up six runs in 2 1-3 innings of Houston's 8-7 loss to Pittsburgh on Wednesday. Moehler is 0-4 with an 8.10 ERA in five career starts against the Reds, and has a 6.82 ERA in eight total games.” Houston might be pumped they held on last night, but that was a tough, grinding victory. As an underdog, I think the Reds +100 is a great bet.

Min/Chw - The Twins are 35-19 at home, where they've won eight of nine and four in a row over the Sox. I spoke yesterday about how the Twinkies are getting much love, and I think the line reflects that. Perkins is a -130 favorite, but only has 1 loss since May 30, but that was against the white-hot Yankees last week. He’s 5-1 in his last 10 starts, while his opponent is making his second Major League start after he allowed 5 runs in 4 innings in his first start. The dude was a QB at Michigan, but unless he has a little Tom Brady in him, I really like the Twins -130 in this matchup.

NYM/Flo - In a battle of a pair of lefties, the stats suggest a fairly even contest. Scott Olsen has a lower ERA, a lower WHIP, and fewer losses than Oliver Perez. However, those stats can be misleading. “ New York's Oliver Perez has found his groove recently, as he's allowed just five earned runs, 21 hits and 12 walks in his past five starts. Those outings spanned 33.2 innings against some solid offenses (twice against the Reds and Phillies, once against the Yankees), during which Perez fanned 39 batters, including a 12-strikeout performance his last time out. Florida's Scott Olsen, meanwhile, has struggled to a 6.75 July ERA while managing just 3.4 strikeouts per nine innings this month.” Every Mets-Marlins game this year (7 of them) have gone over 8 runs. I think that might be true here, but I’m more confident that the Mets at -135 score more of them.

Col/Pit - Total set at 10.5. Like I said yesterday, these teams are putting up bigtime runs, and they covered easily yesterday. The total started a run higher than yesterday, but still could be a bargain with 2 pitchers with a combined 16.59 era on the mound. Get on the Atkins diet, enjoy the Holliday and Hawpe on the over of 10.5. Haha, damn I’m funny.

Chc/Mil - “Zambrano, who is 9-8 in 22 lifetime appearances against Milwaukee, has limited the Brewers to one run in 13 innings over two starts this season without a decision. He matched zeros over 6 2-3 innings with Ben Sheets (10-3, 2.87) -- Milwaukee's scheduled starter Tuesday -- to open the season March 31, then watched his bullpen squander a two-run, ninth-inning lead in a 4-3 defeat May 1.” But that start was extremely early in the season, and this Brewers team looks very motivated to take down the division leaders at home. “Sheets has won his last three decisions versus the Cubs, against whom he is 10-7 with a 3.76 ERA in 24 lifetime starts.” This game could easily go either way, so I think it is best to stay away, or possibly play the Cubs as underdogs. Risky though.

Tor/TB - When I was doing research last night, I was hoping for a line that was more reflective of Garza's last few starts against TB (13 innings, 3 hits vs Tor this year), then his road starts this year (2-5 with a 6.04 era). But alas, they named Halladay a -160 favorite, a fair line for the guy who could quite possibly win his second CY Young. I don't know which way to read into Garza's stats, so I would flag this game (because of the Toronto price) as one to avoid. The Rays have been under for 6 straight games, but the Jays O has shown signs of life.

Det/Cle - Galarraga has been great for the Tigers all year, and he is coming off a start in which he had a perfect game into the seventh. He is 2-0 with a 2.92 era against the Indians this year, while his opposing starter is a fill-in with no starts against Detroit (1.80 era in 5 relief appearances). I think even though Detroit has lost 3 of 4, their offense is too potent and could explode at any time. Decent line at -130, I'd consider it.

PICK WINNERS, MAKE MONEY.

Weekend Results 2-3 (0-2 on strong endorsements)
Yesterday's Results 4-1 (1-0 on strong endorsement)

pj20

Back to winning - WAY more fun

I thought I had some good research today, and 4-1 surely justifies it for me (+400 units). Hitting the Strong Endorsement was the key, but Oswalt sure had to work for it. An Adam Dunn granny to take a 4-3 lead seriously got the adrenaline flowing, and I was still at work watching it on the damn online baseball package. A win is a win though, and the Astros held on 5-4.

All three games where I recommended the total (TB/Tor, Pit/Col, Atl/Stl) hit, and all of them relatively easily. I saw the action on the Colorado game was moving towards game-time, but different books had different prices. I bet we see an 11.5 tomorrow. The Texas/Sea game, which I said to stay away from, actually received 2 votes for the under.

Mark Buehrle ended his run of impressive pitching, which is almost more of a testament to the Twins, as it is to how well Buehrle has been pitching. The Twins have been playing extremely well over the past month, yet nobody really seems to be talking about them. Very interesting, hopefully the oddsmakers are not taking notice either.

The reason I put the Yankees and the Dodgers in a different style today was because I thought they were both going to win, but I didn't think the price associated with the game represented good value. I threw out a few stats just to discuss the possibility. I considered runlines, but really those games are best to stay away from.

Thanks everyone for the feedback today, I really appreciate it. If you think I am out of my mind with any of these picks, I absolutely want to hear about it. Feel free to post a comment, or send me an email petejohnson20@gmail.com.

holla

MLB picks for Monday July 28, 2008

Red - strong endorsement, Bold underline - good bet.

Tor/TB – On the surface, this game points to a pitchers duel. Firstly, both teams have quality starters going, and the Rays have played under in 4 straight games. Shields is 4-1 with a 3.38 era and 0.98 whip in his past 5 starts. “A.J. Burnett has a 1.79 ERA in his past three starts, each against a different divisional foe. In each of the past two seasons Burnett has managed to string together a strong second half, and his strong strikeout rate this season combined with his ability to limit home runs (just 12 in 139 innings) make it easy to believe that trend will repeat itself.” Plus, the Rays have averaged 2.7 runs in their last 16 games, finishing with a double-figure hit total only once in that span while batting .211 as a team. In their previous match-up Shields won 2-1. Toronto also is 44-54 vs. the total this year. So the stats back up my first instinct, and I’m taking the Under of 7.5, even though it is low.

Atl/Stl – I expect a lot of runs to be scored in this one. The Braves have played over for 4 straight games, and their offense is finally clicking. Facing the Cards pitching staff should help continue the trend…“The Cardinals' starters are 2-3 with a 6.60 ERA in their last 11 games. They had a 4.13 ERA before the break. Their starter, Braden Looper (9-8, 4.49 ERA) is 0-3 with a 5.55 ERA in his last five starts….Looper was battered in his lone start at Turner Field. He gave up seven runs and 10 hits in 2 2-3 innings in a 14-6 Cardinals' loss on July 21, 2007.” The downside for the Braves is that they might be without Chipper Jones and Brian McCann, while St. Louis might be without Rick Ankiel. I think this will be a close game, but if you get these teams crappy bullpen’s involved, I like Over 9.5.

SD/Ari – 2 teams that know each other well, are playing both coming off of sweeps. The advantage for the Padres is Maddux, who despite not having a decision since May 10, he still has a 2.94 era in home starts during that span. However, he is only 2-11 vs. the D’backs, the worst vs any opponent. Owings is getting his first start since July 9, and “In his only start of the season against the Padres on April 26, Owings gave up five runs and five hits in five innings of an 8-7, 13-inning loss. He is 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA in four career starts versus them.” The Pad’s are playing their best ball of the year, and a win here for Maddux would speak volumes about the current state of the team. I like the Padres at home -115 to take advantage of a rusty Owings. It is worth noting that the last 4 Ari-SD games have gone under the current total.

Min/Chw - The White Sox are 7-4 against the Twins in the season series, including wins in the last five meetings. Buehrle is starting and has a 1.76 era in his past 9 starts. He is also 21-11 against the Twinkies, his best record against any opponent (including 3 in a row at the Metrodome). Slowey has won his last three starts at the Metrodome, including a three-hit shutout of Milwaukee on June 29. As for Slowey, “The right-hander lost for the first time in seven overall starts Tuesday, though, yielding four runs and five hits in 5 1-3 innings of an 8-2 road loss to the New York Yankees. Slowey has been hit hard in two losses to the White Sox this season -- both in Chicago -- giving up 11 runs and 14 hits over eight total innings.” I think the only reason the Sox aren’t favored is because of the home-park factor, and possibly Buehrle’s early season performance against them (when he was struggs, he’s righted the ship). Great value, I’m backing Buehrle at +100, even on the road.

Tex/Sea – Temperatures are set for 100+!! Hernandez is 5-1 with a 1.98 ERA since May 31. Scott Feldman also has won three consecutive decisions over six starts since his last loss June 13. He went six innings on Monday, allowing one run and four hits in Texas' 6-1 victory over the Chicago White Sox. I’d stay away.

Hou/Cin – Oswalt is back from his recent injury, while he was “2-1 with a 2.49 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 21 2-3 innings in four starts prior to getting hurt.” He says he feels NO pain, and they are coming off a 11-6 win over the Brewers. Against Cinncy, get this…”The eight-year veteran is 19-1 with a 2.46 ERA in 24 career games -- 22 starts -- against the Reds, his most wins against any opponent. He's been even better at home, going 9-0 with a 2.26 ERA in 12 appearances -- 11 starts -- versus Cincinnati.” Plus, the Astros have won the last 6 meetings in the series. The Reds, losers of five of their last seven, are coming off a disappointing sweep to Colorado, during which they were outscored 23-3 while batting .165 with one homer. Cueto gave up 5 runs last time vs these Astros. Everything here screams the Astros -145.

Col/Pit – The Rockies are on a TEAR lately, and I think they keep it up vs. Snell, even though he pitches decent at home. “Over its last eight games, Colorado has a .394 team batting average with 10 home runs and 34 doubles. The Rockies have scored in double digits four times in their last seven contests and have compiled at least 11 hits in eight straight games, their longest streak since an eight-game run in September 1999.” Snell is also 0-1 with a 7.71 era in his last 3 starts. Colorado’s starter Jason Hirsh is making his first start of the season, and he is coming off of rotator cuff surgery. I think in that bandbox, the ball will be flying. I love the over of 9.5.

Expensive lines that I like…

Kuroda -205 @ SF - 2.63 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in eight starts at Dodger Stadium, and the Dodgers have won 3 in a row, while the Giants are reeling after being swept by Arizona.

Mussina -170 vs. Bal – The Yankees just had their 8 gamer snapped last night, but they send their hottest pitcher to the mound against a team that is leaving their friendly confines for the beginning a 9 game road trip. Even though they also send their best pitcher, the Yankees are too hot right now, and they FEAST on RHP.

PICK WINNERS, MAKE MONEY.

Thursday's Results 5-0
Friday's Results 4-4 (2-0 on strong endorsements)
Weekend Results 2-3 (0-2 on strong endorsements)

pj20

Smart Betting - don't bet on weekends

Well after winning money in all five days last week, I came down negative units both Saturday (-185) and Sunday (-220). The point of this post is give one betting tip: Never bet just to bet. I titled this post "don't bet on weekends", but that mainly just applies to me. I am a man of dillegent research and statistics, and that takes both time and effort. After a night full of partying and little to no sleep, research at 9am is not ideal. There is no point betting on a game if you have not done enough research on it, and I am guilty sometimes of doing just that. Not that I didn't research stats for the games posted on Saturday (I did), but I just want to reiterate the point of gambling - Take calculated risks, that give you the best chance to win money. If you want to put your faith on a 50-50 coin flip, that is a sure-fire way to lose money in the long-run.

Tough game last night, as I recommend the Red Sox-Yankees Under 10.5, only to see the final be 9-2, losing by 0.5 a run. Once again, even though I lost the bet, I am happy with my logic.

Back to well-researched, full of statistical tidbit research for the week...

pj20

Sunday Night

Not a great day yesterday, (-165 units) and I didn't get up in time to do any research, but I do like the Under of 10.5 in the Red Sox-Yankees game.  Yankees are less potent vs LHP, and the Sox starter Jon Lester pitched a CG shutout last time he faced the Bombers.  The weather for the game might be a little shaky, possibly affecting the ability to score runs.  The ball won't carry as well, and a wet batters box is not ideal for hitting.  With the potential of Manny Rameriz to be out of the lineup again, coupled with the fact that Ortiz is still returning to form coming off his injury, makes me more confident in this pick.  Even Sidney Ponson has decent road numbers.  Remember a 6-4 game would still play under this high total.  I like both teams bullpens to hold the offenses in check, if the starters turn it over to them in a low-scoring one.

More picks tomorrow.