Red - strong endorsement, Bold underline - good bet.Tor/TB – On the surface, this game points to a pitchers duel. Firstly, both teams have quality starters going, and the Rays have played under in 4 straight games. Shields is 4-1 with a 3.38 era and 0.98 whip in his past 5 starts.
“A.J. Burnett has a 1.79 ERA in his past three starts, each against a different divisional foe. In each of the past two seasons Burnett has managed to string together a strong second half, and his strong strikeout rate this season combined with his ability to limit home runs (just 12 in 139 innings) make it easy to believe that trend will repeat itself.” Plus, the Rays have averaged 2.7 runs in their last 16 games, finishing with a double-figure hit total only once in that span while batting .211 as a team. In their previous match-up Shields won 2-1. Toronto also is 44-54 vs. the total this year. So the stats back up my first instinct, and
I’m taking the Under of 7.5, even though it is low.
Atl/Stl – I expect a lot of runs to be scored in this one. The Braves have played over for 4 straight games, and their offense is finally clicking. Facing the Cards pitching staff should help continue the trend
…“The Cardinals' starters are 2-3 with a 6.60 ERA in their last 11 games. They had a 4.13 ERA before the break. Their starter, Braden Looper (9-8, 4.49 ERA) is 0-3 with a 5.55 ERA in his last five starts….Looper was battered in his lone start at Turner Field. He gave up seven runs and 10 hits in 2 2-3 innings in a 14-6 Cardinals' loss on July 21, 2007.” The downside for the Braves is that they might be without Chipper Jones and Brian McCann, while St. Louis might be without Rick Ankiel. I think this will be a close game, but if you get these teams crappy bullpen’s involved,
I like Over 9.5.SD/Ari – 2 teams that know each other well, are playing both coming off of sweeps. The advantage for the Padres is Maddux, who despite not having a decision since May 10, he still has a 2.94 era in home starts during that span. However, he is only 2-11 vs. the D’backs, the worst vs any opponent. Owings is getting his first start since July 9, and
“In his only start of the season against the Padres on April 26, Owings gave up five runs and five hits in five innings of an 8-7, 13-inning loss. He is 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA in four career starts versus them.” The Pad’s are playing their best ball of the year, and a win here for Maddux would speak volumes about the current state of the team. I like the Padres at home -115 to take advantage of a rusty Owings. It is worth noting that the last 4 Ari-SD games have gone under the current total.
Min/Chw - The White Sox are 7-4 against the Twins in the season series, including wins in the last five meetings. Buehrle is starting and has a 1.76 era in his past 9 starts. He is also 21-11 against the Twinkies, his best record against any opponent (including 3 in a row at the Metrodome). Slowey has won his last three starts at the Metrodome, including a three-hit shutout of Milwaukee on June 29. As for Slowey,
“The right-hander lost for the first time in seven overall starts Tuesday, though, yielding four runs and five hits in 5 1-3 innings of an 8-2 road loss to the New York Yankees. Slowey has been hit hard in two losses to the White Sox this season -- both in Chicago -- giving up 11 runs and 14 hits over eight total innings.” I think the only reason the Sox aren’t favored is because of the home-park factor, and possibly Buehrle’s early season performance against them (when he was struggs, he’s righted the ship). Great value,
I’m backing Buehrle at +100, even on the road.
Tex/Sea – Temperatures are set for 100+!! Hernandez is 5-1 with a 1.98 ERA since May 31. Scott Feldman also has won three consecutive decisions over six starts since his last loss June 13. He went six innings on Monday, allowing one run and four hits in Texas' 6-1 victory over the Chicago White Sox. I’d stay away.
Hou/Cin – Oswalt is back from his recent injury, while he was “
2-1 with a 2.49 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 21 2-3 innings in four starts prior to getting hurt.” He says he feels NO pain, and they are coming off a 11-6 win over the Brewers. Against Cinncy, get this…”The eight-year veteran is 19-1 with a 2.46 ERA in 24 career games -- 22 starts -- against the Reds, his most wins against any opponent. He's been even better at home, going 9-0 with a 2.26 ERA in 12 appearances -- 11 starts -- versus Cincinnati.” Plus, the Astros have won the last 6 meetings in the series. The Reds, losers of five of their last seven, are coming off a disappointing sweep to Colorado, during which they were outscored 23-3 while batting .165 with one homer. Cueto gave up 5 runs last time vs these Astros.
Everything here screams the Astros -145.Col/Pit – The Rockies are on a TEAR lately, and I think they keep it up vs. Snell, even though he pitches decent at home. “
Over its last eight games, Colorado has a .394 team batting average with 10 home runs and 34 doubles. The Rockies have scored in double digits four times in their last seven contests and have compiled at least 11 hits in eight straight games, their longest streak since an eight-game run in September 1999.” Snell is also 0-1 with a 7.71 era in his last 3 starts. Colorado’s starter Jason Hirsh is making his first start of the season, and he is coming off of rotator cuff surgery. I think in that bandbox, the ball will be flying.
I love the over of 9.5.Expensive lines that I like…
Kuroda -205 @ SF - 2.63 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in eight starts at Dodger Stadium, and the Dodgers have won 3 in a row, while the Giants are reeling after being swept by Arizona.
Mussina -170 vs. Bal – The Yankees just had their 8 gamer snapped last night, but they send their hottest pitcher to the mound against a team that is leaving their friendly confines for the beginning a 9 game road trip. Even though they also send their best pitcher, the Yankees are too hot right now, and they FEAST on RHP.
PICK WINNERS, MAKE MONEY.Thursday's Results 5-0Friday's Results 4-4 (2-0 on strong endorsements)Weekend Results 2-3 (0-2 on strong endorsements)pj20
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