Phi/Was - This one seems like such a no-brainer, it almost kind of worries me. Moyer has owned the Nats in the past (7 wins in 94 IP, with a 2.96 ERA), and has been pitching extremely effectively the past month, especially for a 57 year old. Plus, he will have the Phillies offense backing him. The Nationals counter with perhaps their best chance of winning however, as Redding has also pitched well against the Phillies (2.34 ERA, 1.14 WHIP). This year, he hasn't even give up a run in 13.1 IP. But Moyer carries a 2.93 era in road starts this year, and the Nats might be without their all-star Guzman. I still like the Phillies -135 here, but Reddings success vs the Phils keeps me from making a strong endorsement. Neither offense is playing well either, but the total was set at 9. I'd take advantage of that too.
Chc/Mil - This series has been an absolute BATTLE so far, with the Cubs beating CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets on back-to-back night in Milwaukee. The Brewers offense has been slowed by great starting pitching, and today's matchup doesn't seem to get any easier. At least however, the Brew-crew roll more than 2 deep. ESPN notes that..."Parra's first loss in nine decisions and 15 starts can be attributed to David Riske, as the reliever allowed all three inherited runners to score July 25 in Houston. Parra had pitched a shutout until loading the bases in the seventh and getting the hook. Look for the rookie lefty to right the ship against the Cubs. Chicago has just a league-average .751 OPS in July". The Brewers are set at slight favorites, but Dempster has pitched well all season, and in his career vs. the Cubs. Like I said the past 2 days, this game could easily go either way, so I'd either take the Cubs for value, or stay away. I'm not betting this game.
Cin/Hou - Houston has taken the first two games of the series, scoring 11 runs in the 2 wins, but 8 of them can be attributed to timely grand slams. Ironically, I won a bet on Monday because of one, and lost on Tuesday because of the other. Either way, Houston has all the momentum (their win streak vs. Cinncy has reached eight) and they send their best home pitcher to the mound. Wandy Rodriguez has a 2.54 era at Minute Maid and should be able to handle the Reds. Also, there might be reason to be concerned about Edinson, who is a rookie after all. "He is quickly approaching his career high for innings (144 2/3 between the minors and majors last season) and might be suffering from fatigue. That would certainly explain his uninspiring starts in his two most recent outings. In fact, throw out his 10-strikeout performance against the Brewers on July 12, and Volquez has whiffed only 14 batters in his previous 24 2/3 innings. That's a K/9 of 5.11, well below his season K/9 of 9.52." You are getting Wandy at a discounted price because of Volquez's potential. But at Minute Maid park, and the way Edinson has been pitching, I'm all over the Astros -115.
NYM/Flo – Mike Pelfrey has been on fire in the month of July, going deep into ballgames, and not giving up runs. But more importantly, he has won SEVEN straight decisions. The last team to beat him was these Marlins, but the Mets havn’t lost a game he’s started since. Josh Johnson is coming off Tommy John, but he actually looked really impressive. In three career starts versus New York, Johnson is 2-0, giving up seven hits and three runs (0ER) over 17 innings. But the Mets are really starting to hit their stride. This should be a great divisional match-up, but I think you have to back Pelfrey and the Mets -120 until they prove otherwise.
Col/Pit - The runs have come in bunches and have not seemed to stop in this series. Yesterday's game just barely went under the 10.5 total (sorry bout that one), but the Rockies are still on an absolute tear right now. I don't need any stats for this one to know that it will be an extremely unpredictable game. I love Aaron Cook, but at -165, I think it is too expensive.
Ari/SD - I don't really need stats when Danny Haren is pitching these days, because no matter who he faces/where he faces them, I pretty much EXPECT him to win. It reminds me of the tear that Webb went on last year where he threw like 35 straight scoreless. The dude was unconscious. Haren is pitching like that over the last month. The stats? They do back him up. Haren is still maintaining a 0.96 WHIP (for the SEASON) and has allowed just two earned runs in 14 innings against the Padres this season. For his career he has a 1.50 era vs San Diego. The only question is the price, but this one seems managable again. I will continue to ride the Haren-train until he takes a Pujols ball off the face or something. Take the D'backs -140 all day long.
Chc/Min - "Gavin Floyd has three quality starts against the Twins this season, while compiling a 2-1 record with a 2.11 ERA in those starts. Other than a rough outing in Arlington, Floyd has been just fine this month, with three quality starts in his other three efforts." The Twinkies have looked pretty impressive in the first two games, pounding them in a shutout game 1, and coming back from a 4-0 deficit in game 2. Plus, Livo "has enjoyed pitching in the Metrodome this season, compiling an 8-1 record with a 3.91 ERA." Too bad he can't bat in this game, because he went 3-3 with a jack vs. Floyd last time. The White Sox bats have been stymied for the entire series, and even with those decent Livo stats, it is still the same damn Livan Hernandez, we all know and hate. I think Floyd pitches his fourth quality start and gets enough run support. I think the White Sox -115 salvage this final game of the series.
And a few quick notes....
Ana/Bos - It is going to be really interesting to see how the Red Sox respond to losing the first two games and almost being no-hit last night at home. The Angels have to be riding high, especially after they landed the biggest name on the trading block in Mark Teixera. If you feel like gambling, the Angels are an absolute bargain at +170. They have baseball's best record!
Det/Ind - "The Tigers' are hitting great in the month of July (.824 OPS), but Cliff Lee's most recent opponent -- the Twins -- had been just about that good this month, too (.809 OPS), and Lee dominated them. There is some concern due to the fact that the Tigers (.834 OPS, second-best in majors) are much better than the Twins (.694 OPS) versus left-handers, but Lee has won 14 games this year for a reason." I love Cliff Lee, but I also love the Tigers offense. Something has to give, I just don't know what it is.
Tex/Sea - "Padilla has a 2 ERA in 3 starts vs the Mariners this season, and Texas has been pounding the ball. Seattle is also one of the worst teams in the league vs. RHP." Another 100+ degree day in Arlington, I'll take the guy who pitches there more. And Seattles offense is a little league team compared to Kinsler, Hamilton, Bradley and crew. Texas -185, if you have the balls. Over 11.5 is never a bad bet here either.
PICK WINNERS, MAKE MONEY.
Monday's results 4-1 (1-0 on strong endorsements)
Yesterday's results 2-3 (1-0 on strong endorsements)
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