So after a 0-3 day yesterday with the blog picks (2-4 in real life), I decided to take a day off from making some blog picks. I wanted to discuss something that me and K7 have been talking about for a few weeks now. THE RUN LINE.
Here is a quick definition...
RUN LINES
The run line involves a team getting 1 1/2 runs (the underdog) while the favorite must lay 1 1/2 runs. A money line is also with to the 1 1/2 runs For a favorite to win on the run line, the team must then win by 2 runs.
The odds on a favorite will usually be a plus number because the team must win by at least 2 runs. The money line attached to the team getting 1 1/2 runs will usually be a minus number because the team can still lose by one run and still be a winning bet.
The same rules that apply for totals apply for run lines: listed pitchers must start, and the game can not be called early.
Here is and example of a Run Line Yankees - 1 1/2 +120 Devil Rays + 1 1/2 - 140 If you bet the Yankees would win by 2 runs or more you would win $1.20 for every $1.00 bet If you bet that the Devil Rays would win or they can lose by less than two runs you will have to risk $1.40 for every $1.00 you want to win.
(taken from http://www.docsports.com/betting-baseball.html)
The reason I bring this up is because of the unusual amount of HEAVY favorites today. Let's look at some games on today's card.
Philadelphia -240 vs. Washington
St. Louis -205 vs. Pittsburgh
Boston -175 @ Baltimore
Minnestoa -235 vs. Oakland
Chicago Cubs -330 vs. Cincinnati
Now, I think it is safe to say, that in a vaccuum with straight odds, we would all pick the heavy favorites to win their games. The Cubs, Cardinals, Twins, and Phillies are all playing inferior teams at home. They SHOULD win. But with the prices attached, there is no reason to take that risk. A 2-1 day could potentially lose you money. This is where betting the Run Line can be adventagous. Let's look at the same games, but with Run Line odds listed instead.
Philadelphia -115 vs. Washington
St. Louis -110 vs. Pittsburgh
Boston -125 @ Baltimore
Minnesota -115 vs. Oakland
Chicago Cubs -145 vs. Cincinnati
Needless to say, those lines are MUCH more appealing and represent much better value. If you think these teams are going to win (the oddsmakers certainly do), they why not take the chance that they could win by 2?
This is a very interesting debate, and I would love to have some feedback on it.
PLEASE USE THE COMMENTS TO GIVE SOME FEEDBACK. HOW DO WE FEEL ABOUT BETTING RUN LINES? SUCKER BET, OR GREAT VALUE??
holla, pj20
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2 comments:
I like betting run lines in certain situations, for instance when the opposing pitcher is someone like Josh Fogg, who will NEVER keep a game close against a good offense. With pitchers like Cueto and Bergman- especially tonight against Blanton, who's pretty awful himself- I tend to stay away from run lines since they can occasionally throw a low scoring game. With the total at 7 for the Cubs game, I'm taking it the wind is blowing in as well, so there not might be a ton of runs scored. That being said, I did take the Brewers in the run line tonight, which is a game I think you neglected to mention.
-Shoeless Tito Jackson
Good info.
I did forget to mention it, but I thought 5 games illustrated my point.
I did NOT take the Phillies Runline, and that is an excellent point. I agree you should only bet the Runline if the situation is favorable i.e. a GOOD pitcher at home vs. an inferior team. I guess you can loosely define "good", but I'd put the bar above Joe Blanton.
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