STL/FLO – These teams had both been playing rather inspired of late, but have leveled off the past 10 games (Flo 5-5, Stl 4-6). Florida will enjoy coming home after a road series vs. the Mets, and the Cardinals just got drubbed by the Cubs, leaving them 7 out in the Central. Both teams can score runs, and in bunches. St. Louis has lost 3 of four overall, scoring 2 or fewer in each loss. “Pineiro (4-5, 5.04 ERA) has been healthy lately, but has struggled. The right-hander beat the Los Angeles Dodgers after allowing four runs in seven innings of a 9-6 win on Wednesday, but he has a 6.61 ERA in his last eight starts, allowing at least 10 hits six times over that span. Florida will send Anibal Sanchez to the mound for his third start after shoulder surgery. Sanchez (1-1, 4.22) hasn't gotten out of the sixth inning in his first two outings, giving up 11 hits and walking five in 10 2-3 innings.” Neither pitcher has faced their opponent, and these teams haven’t played this year. The over is 10-1-1 in St. Louis’s last 12 road games, and 11-3-1 in the last 15 overall. Florida has won 10 of Sanchez’s last 11 home starts, and the under is 7-3-1 in those games. However, he has not pitched the way he did when accumulating those stats, and I look for him to be closer to the pitcher he was last outing, than last season. The weather is set for 82F with a light rain. With Florida being in as much of a must-win situation as you can be at this time of year, I like the Marlins, and the over in this one.

CLE/BAL – There are 2 main things that stick out to me here. One, Fausto Carmona has not fully returned to form since his hip injury. He teased us with a great start in Detroit, but that was sandwiched with 2 awful outings, including his last where he only threw 41 strikes and had 5 walks. “In his last three, he is 1-2 with a shaky 11.25 ERA and 1.89 WHIP.” The second thing that sticks out is that the Orioles have a .294 average as a team since the break (2nd in majors). The Orioles pitcher, Dennis Sarfate, should be able to be got to also though. He was pulled quickly in his last start, and only last 7 innings total in his past 2 (only career starts). I think that there should be some runs scored in this one. The over is 22-7-1 in Baltimore’s last 30 road games, including 39-16-2 in the past 57 overall. Even though the under is 7-2 in Cleveland’s past 9 games, the over is 7-1 in Carmona’s last 8 home starts. Both teams have bullpens that have been getting knocked around. Look for them to help this total today, and take over 9.5.

LA/PHI – It has been fairly well-documented that the Dodgers have been pitching AMAZING at home, especially Derek Lowe. The under is 14-10 in his starts, but as a team the under is 6-2 following a loss (last 8) (LAD lost past 2 to SF). I feel like Lowe should be able to rebound from his past outing where he ran his road ERA to 5.88 compared to a 2.72 ERA at home (1.24 ERA last 4 starts at home). He is also 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA in 6 starts vs. these Phillies. Kyle Kendrick has not been as well documented as Lowe, but he has had the same success recently. He is leading the Phils in wins with 10 and has a 1.45 ERA in his last 3 starts. He is only 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in 2 career starts vs. the Dodgers, but they both came last season. He is starting to come into his own in his second season, and the Phillies have been struggling to score runs of late. I love the under of 8.0.

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