Picks for Saturday August 2, 2008 by K7

After a week of fourteen to fifteen hour days in the office, I hopped back on the horse with a little handicapping last night and ran off a 5-2 day. Winners included Minnesota on the run line for two units at +120, the Halos for two units, DBacks for two units, Los Gigantes for two units and the over in the Mets Houston for two units. My losers yesterday came in Seattle where the Orioles beat up on the Ms and Olson decided he wanted to display the nasty stuff that he showed off at Cal Poly (where he threw with my boy Hollywood Bud Norris) and I lost by a half a run (9.5 was the over) in a 9-0 Milwaukee win over Atlanta. Overall, strong day and looking to continue things today...

Pirates versus Cubs... Glance quickly at this game and what immediately jumps out at you? Well if you're like me, you notice the Cubs are at home (where they play out of their skulls) and you see that heavy -200 line next to Ted Lilly's name. The bookies are telling you that Lilly is a lock here. Ahhh, but not so fast my friend. Let's break down these numbers. The Cubs are a tremendous home team (39-15) and that is absolutely getting taken into consideration with this line, but in their last fourteen games Chicago is a very human 7-7 at Wrigley Field including yesterday's loss to the Pirates. Solid home team of not, this line is simply too heavy. The Pirates are sending quality start machine, Paul Maholm (7-6, 3.79 ERA), to the hill and he is yet to lose to the Cubs in his career. He is 4-0 despite posting a 6.15 ERA in seven career outings against Chicago, and the Pirates have won six of those appearances. The left-hander, who went 2-1 with a 2.43 ERA in five July starts, equaled a career high with nine strikeouts and yielded one run and four hits in seven innings in his most recent turn in the rotation. Ted Lilly allowed three runs and seven hits -- two homers -- in six innings Monday, but didn't receive a decision in a 6-4 win at Milwaukee. The left-hander is 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA in seven career appearances against Pittsburgh and he sports an 8.38 ERA against them this year. ESPN notes that Lilly has two rotten starts against Pittsburgh this year, allowing 17 hits in 9 2/3 innings. Lilly has also been much worse at home this season with a 5.34 ERA at Wrigley Field, compared to 3.89 on the road. Leave him on the bench for this one. In over 100 cumulative ABs the Pirates lineup is hitting above .300 against Lilly. Maholm always gives the Pirates a chance to win and is 5-1 in his last 11 starts. There's simply too much value here to ignore it. Let's go against the popular consensus and let's look for the value priced underdog to start our Saturday off right. I'm going Maholm and the Pirates for 2 units...

Brewers versus Braves... Looking at the basics, the Braves are a solid and not spectacular 32-24 at home and the Brewers are a solid and not spectacular 29-26 on the road. Look closer at the Brewers road numbers and you will see that they have won eight straight road games since the All-Star break, outscoring their opponents by an absurd 50-19. Milwaukee won the opener in this road series 9-0, in an important game after struggling in their previous series against the Cubs. Today, Milwaukee sends CC Sabathia to the mound and that means trouble for Braves hitters. Sabathia has a .50 ERA on the road in his first two starts away from Miller Park since his move to the NL (both were complete games) and his July ERA was 2.27. The man is obviously dealing lately and I look for him to continue his momentum today. August is statistically Sabathia's best month in the past three years, as his 10-2 W/L record in 17 starts and 2.49 ERA displays. Atlanta counters Milwaukee's left-handed ace with Charlie Morton. Who you ask? I said Charlie Morton, he of a 7.26 ERA and 1.66 WHIP this season. Yes, Charlie Morton the guy with a 0-3 record at home and a 10.70 ERA. Opponents are actually hitting .375 with a .1010 OPS against Morton at home versus his impressive .200 batting average against and .621 OPS on the road. He is 0-1 this year against the Brewers, whom he had a quality start against at Miller Park, going 6 innings and allowing 7 hits and 4 runs (only two earned). That doesn't mean that the Brewers didn't see the ball well though facing him as the collective lineup has a .292 batting average against him. Since then, there's been trouble for Morton and he's seen his ERA rise from 4.24 to its current level of 7.26. That's a huge leap folks. Can you tell who I like in this game? The line is heavy at -200, and I like the Brewers enough here that I'm recommending them on the run line at -120. The Brewers continue their fantastic play on the road and Sabathia shuts down the Braves and I'll put 2 units on the run line...

White Sox versus Royals... Chicago won the opener in this series 4-2 behind Javier Vazquez and the under won (PJ, you talked me off both those picks in our quick conversation last night) and according to ESPN look for things to remain the same. Mark Buehrle is a great start against Kansas City. He has a 1.88 ERA in two starts against the Royals this year and is 17-7 lifetime against the club. What do David DeJesus, John Buck, Esteban German, Billy Butler and Alex Gordon all have in common when it comes to Buehrle? They have each faced him at least 10 times and have a batting average below the Mendoza line. The Royals entire roster is hitting just .228 against Buehrle in 228 total at bats. Chicago's consistent lefty has split his two starts against the Royals this season, losing in Kansas City on July 10 despite allowing just two unearned runs over 7 1-3 innings in a 4-1 loss. He had been 3-0 with a 2.67 ERA in his previous four starts at Kauffman Stadium. Kansas City counters with Kyle Davies. The right-hander is 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA in two starts against the White Sox this year. He pitched 5 2-3 innings against them on July 8, allowing three runs in a 13-inning, 8-7 loss. The White Sox lineup has a career .354 batting average against Davies. The under is actually 9-0 in Kansas City's last 9 games against teams with winning records and in their last 9 on grass, so those numbers and Buehrle's might point me towards the under but I also am recommending the White Sox here if you're willing to lay the -150. I am, so I'm going 2 units on the White Sox to win and 1 unit on under 5 runs through 5 innings and 1 unit on under 9.5 for the game

Angels versus Yankees... I'm sitting in my apartment doing research and it's been raining all day. I mean, legit thunder shower rain. I'm not doing much research on this game because I don't believe it's actually going to get played but here is what ESPN says Jered Weaver looked pretty sharp in his most recent outing in Fenway Park and now travels to Yankee Stadium, where he is 2-0 in his career with a 3.27 ERA. Weaver should come close to a quality start, but he'll have to duel with Mike Mussina for the win. ... As for Mussina, he had a rough outing against Baltimore, but still escapes July with a 2.61 ERA in 31 innings in which he only walked two batters while striking out 27. Let's just say it was a good month. The Moose should be a good start versus the Angels. He has held Vladimir Guerrero (26 at-bats) and Mark Teixeira (25) below the Mendoza line against him. Torii Hunter, who has faced Mussina 42 times, has just 10 hits in those at-bats (.238). Those numbers make under 9 a good bet but I really don't see this game getting played based off the weather at the moment and the afternoon start time...