Stl/Atl - “St. Louis has scored the fifth-most runs in the NL (512), but has lacked consistency lately, scoring 22 runs in its last two wins and only 12 in its past six losses. The Cardinals finished with a season high in runs Monday after losing 9-1 to the New York Mets on Sunday.” Neither starter has any starts vs the opponent, but Campillo is coming off a win in his last decision (last start only 1.2 because of rain 2 days ago). Wellemeyer, on the other hand…”has been struggling lately, going 1-3 with a 7.00 ERA in his last seven starts after going 5-0 with a 1.88 ERA in his previous seven.” The Braves just put Chipper and Hudson on the DL, while the Cardinals just named Isringhausen the closer. Bottom line, these teams are a mess, but at least the Cardinals are in the thick of things. Atlanta has apparently thrown in the towel, as they announced that they were going to trade Teixera. If I had to make a bet here, I like over 9.0 again, as both teams have played over in at least 3 straight games (braves 5 straight).
Bos/LAA “Buchholz has struggled to a 6.60 ERA in three starts since his return to Beantown. That figure includes an eight-run drubbing (four earned) at the hands of the Angels slightly more than a week ago. The 23-year-old is still a great long-term property, but he's not in good current form” As for Lackey…“July has told a different story for the right-hander, who has a 7.61 ERA and a .346 opponent batting average this month while surrendering six runs in three of his four starts. Lackey's record is 2-1 in July, due to the fact the Angels have scored at least 10 runs for him in each of his last three outings. Lackey is 2-6 with a 6.01 ERA in 12 career outings versus Boston, but his only quality start this month came at home against the Red Sox (61-46). He limited them to three runs and five hits over seven innings of an 11-3 win July 18.” The Angels are 10-2 in their last 12 games, and have the best record in baseball. I remember doing this same research for this game the other week, and being brutally scared on Lackey’s numbers vs the Sox. I wasn’t sold with Buchholz, however, so I bet/won the over, which was set for 9.5 that day. Today’s is set for 9.0, and with the way these offenses are playing, I’d say that is a decent place to start. The Angels look motivated, but I can see the Sox touching Lackey a little bit again. I’d say the best bet here is over 9.0, so long as these current trends continue.
Cin/Hou - The Reds have lost four in a row, and 7 straight in their series with the Astros, but they have the clear edge in starting pitching tonight. I believe Arroyo will be their stopper. Both teams have capable offenses. “Bronson Arroyo may finally be coming around. The Reds right-hander is having his best month of the season and has won five straight starts. Arroyo has hurled 15 innings in his past two outings, surrendering five runs and compiling an 11-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.” “After giving up a career-high 10 runs in one inning of a road loss to Toronto on June 24, the right-hander has posted a 3.09 ERA while winning a career-high five consecutive starts.” Moehler, on the other hand, has only struck out 12 batters in his last 27 innings. While the Reds are strikeout-prone, it seems unlikely Moehler takes advantage. “The right-hander had posted a 3.72 ERA as a starter before giving up six runs in 2 1-3 innings of Houston's 8-7 loss to Pittsburgh on Wednesday. Moehler is 0-4 with an 8.10 ERA in five career starts against the Reds, and has a 6.82 ERA in eight total games.” Houston might be pumped they held on last night, but that was a tough, grinding victory. As an underdog, I think the Reds +100 is a great bet.Min/Chw - The Twins are 35-19 at home, where they've won eight of nine and four in a row over the Sox. I spoke yesterday about how the Twinkies are getting much love, and I think the line reflects that. Perkins is a -130 favorite, but only has 1 loss since May 30, but that was against the white-hot Yankees last week. He’s 5-1 in his last 10 starts, while his opponent is making his second Major League start after he allowed 5 runs in 4 innings in his first start. The dude was a QB at Michigan, but unless he has a little Tom Brady in him, I really like the Twins -130 in this matchup.
NYM/Flo - In a battle of a pair of lefties, the stats suggest a fairly even contest. Scott Olsen has a lower ERA, a lower WHIP, and fewer losses than Oliver Perez. However, those stats can be misleading. “ New York's Oliver Perez has found his groove recently, as he's allowed just five earned runs, 21 hits and 12 walks in his past five starts. Those outings spanned 33.2 innings against some solid offenses (twice against the Reds and Phillies, once against the Yankees), during which Perez fanned 39 batters, including a 12-strikeout performance his last time out. Florida's Scott Olsen, meanwhile, has struggled to a 6.75 July ERA while managing just 3.4 strikeouts per nine innings this month.” Every Mets-Marlins game this year (7 of them) have gone over 8 runs. I think that might be true here, but I’m more confident that the Mets at -135 score more of them.
Col/Pit - Total set at 10.5. Like I said yesterday, these teams are putting up bigtime runs, and they covered easily yesterday. The total started a run higher than yesterday, but still could be a bargain with 2 pitchers with a combined 16.59 era on the mound. Get on the Atkins diet, enjoy the Holliday and Hawpe on the over of 10.5. Haha, damn I’m funny.
Chc/Mil - “Zambrano, who is 9-8 in 22 lifetime appearances against Milwaukee, has limited the Brewers to one run in 13 innings over two starts this season without a decision. He matched zeros over 6 2-3 innings with Ben Sheets (10-3, 2.87) -- Milwaukee's scheduled starter Tuesday -- to open the season March 31, then watched his bullpen squander a two-run, ninth-inning lead in a 4-3 defeat May 1.” But that start was extremely early in the season, and this Brewers team looks very motivated to take down the division leaders at home. “Sheets has won his last three decisions versus the Cubs, against whom he is 10-7 with a 3.76 ERA in 24 lifetime starts.” This game could easily go either way, so I think it is best to stay away, or possibly play the Cubs as underdogs. Risky though.
Tor/TB - When I was doing research last night, I was hoping for a line that was more reflective of Garza's last few starts against TB (13 innings, 3 hits vs Tor this year), then his road starts this year (2-5 with a 6.04 era). But alas, they named Halladay a -160 favorite, a fair line for the guy who could quite possibly win his second CY Young. I don't know which way to read into Garza's stats, so I would flag this game (because of the Toronto price) as one to avoid. The Rays have been under for 6 straight games, but the Jays O has shown signs of life.
Det/Cle - Galarraga has been great for the Tigers all year, and he is coming off a start in which he had a perfect game into the seventh. He is 2-0 with a 2.92 era against the Indians this year, while his opposing starter is a fill-in with no starts against Detroit (1.80 era in 5 relief appearances). I think even though Detroit has lost 3 of 4, their offense is too potent and could explode at any time. Decent line at -130, I'd consider it.PICK WINNERS, MAKE MONEY.
Weekend Results 2-3 (0-2 on strong endorsements)
Yesterday's Results 4-1 (1-0 on strong endorsement)
pj20
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment