Col/Fla – Talking about pitchers with my friends recently, we were talking about people who had the perception of being bad, but that you can’t really judge until you watch them pitch. Ubaldo Jimenez was my prime example. I once heard Peter Gammons refer to him as a guy who comes around in an organization “maybe once every decade”. I became intrigued from there, and I have since watched him pitch numerous times. The point of all this? He is an extremely talented pitcher who doesn’t get the credit he deserves, because he is young and inconsistent. Lately, however, “With six scoreless innings against the Reds in his most recent start, Ubaldo Jimenez improved his ERA to a 2.07 mark in his past 10 starts. The Marlins' offense has struggled in July and actually hits worse at home than on the road, so there's no reason Jimenez shouldn't continue to pitch well and possibly pick up his seventh win in nine starts.” He faces a rookie in Chris Volstad, who has also had a phenomenal start to his career, starting 2-1 with a 2.38 era, and 1.19 whip. The Marlins are playing too well to take Ubaldo straight up, but I like the promise that Volstad has shown (3 QS – @LAD, Atl, @Chc) as well as the fact the Rockies don’t hit as well on the road. I like under 9.0 as both pitchers keep up their good pitching.

Atl/Mil – Both teams are kind of in a funk right now, but for different reasons. The Braves just avoided being swept by the Cards, while the Brewers just got swept at home by the Cubs. “A meeting with the Braves (50-58) could be a good opportunity for the Brewers to get back on track. Milwaukee has won four of six games against Atlanta this season, including two of three at Turner Field from June 23-25.” The starting pitchers have opposite track records against their opponents, but neither has pitched well this year at all. Suppan is 0-4 with a 7.25 era in 4 games at Turner field, while James is 1-0 with a 1.42 era in 2 games vs. the Brewers. The Brewers are pissed, and are going to be looking to end their five game win streak, so I think there will be some runs on the board. That, coupled with the fact that both teams have played over in their past 6 games (braves 8 straight), leads me to believe they go over 9.5 again.

LAD/Ari – The Dodgers seem motivated finally to go out and win the NL west. But the fact of the matter is, the title still goes through Arizona. The D’backs were able to get past Lowe last night, and tonight they get a slightly easier opponent in the rookie Clayton Kershaw, who has been pitching much better since his recent re-callup. Randy Johnson, though, has won 4 straight starts, and has finally found his grove as well. “Johnson has a 15-inning scoreless streak over his last three starts -- his longest since 19 straight in September 2002 -- and has a 1.71 ERA in winning his last four starts. This run came after he posted a 7.94 ERA in losing his previous six outings.” Even with Manny’s first game in LA, I think the D’backs have plenty of offense to get to Kershaw, and Randy Johnson has enough in the tank to get to LA hitters. As an underdog, I like the D’backs +110 to take this game as well for good value.

SF/SD – A la Danny Haren, it doesn’t matter who Tim Lincecum is facing these days, you figure he always has a shot for a win. Therefore, I’m only going to give you a few quotes. One, “the Giants (44-63) won the only two meetings of 2008 in San Diego, holding the Padres to two runs from April 23-24.” Two, “San Diego will hand the ball to rookie Josh Banks (3-4, 3.92 ERA), who won for the first time in nearly two months on Saturday despite allowing five runs in 5 2-3 innings in a 9-6 victory in Pittsburgh. The right-hander, who yielded two homers for the third time in four starts, had gone 0-4 with a 5.03 ERA in eight outings since his last win on May 31 in San Francisco.” As for the Franchise, the stats back him up as well. “The Giants will counter with Tim Lincecum (11-3, 2.78 ERA), who owns a 1.58 ERA and a 1-1 record in five career starts against the Padres. In three starts against San Diego this season, the right-hander is 1-0 with an 0.93 ERA.” I will back Lincecum as the stopper, and the Giants -140 get back on track.

Other games of interest….

Det/TB – The way Detroit has been hitting the ball, even against Kazmir, a +170 price tag is probably worth the gamble.

Oak/Bos – Wakefield vs. Duchscherer, I think getting the era leader at +140 is also great value, but risky at the defending champs. I’d stay away.

Sea/Bal – I actually really like the Mariners -125 as a sneaky play. Usually that offense can’t be trusted, but at home vs Garret Olson, who has an 8.77 era in his past 5 starts, is a good play. Plus, they are coming off a big win vs. Texas, and Washburn has a 2.67 era over his past 5. The only good stat I have for Baltimore is that they have won 7 of 8 vs. the Mariners so far this season, but 6 of those were in April. The Mariners have 6 consecutive games with 11 plus hits. Take the M’s -125.

PICK WINNERS, MAKE MONEY.

Wednesday's Results - 4-2 (1-0 on strong endorsements)
Yesterday's Results - Not good

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