Picks for Thursday July 31, 2008

So after a Dave Bush gave up a grandslam, that Brewers recommendation this morning isn't looking like such great value afterall.

Red - Strong Endorsement, Bold Underline - good bet.

Sea/Tex – I got 2 stats for you. First, the Mariners are 2-7 when R.A Dickey starts, and second, the Rangers have the most runs scored in the league. Even though Harrison is not that great (7.32 ERA in 4 starts), the Rangers have been pretty hot recently and should be able to at least outscore the M’s. The oddsmakers must agree with that, as they set the line at a relatively high -150. Still, I think the Rangers take this one is a high-scoring battle. Texas -150 is a good bet if you can pay the price.

Ari/LAD – This is lowest total the oddsmakers could have drawn up, and all the evidence seems to support it. The problem is, 6.5 runs can be scored by one team if just one of the SP’s pitches less than stellar. Both these teams have capable offenses that have been inconsistent this year. Lowe,…”was roughed up a bit in early May, but since then has been a major asset in mixed leagues. Lowe finished May with seven shutout innings against the potent Cubs at Wrigley Field. He then posted a 2.81 ERA in June and is 3-0 so far in July, with his most recent start an eight-inning one-hitter versus the Nationals. Lowe has already beaten Arizona twice this year and is in solid midseason form.” He is really starting to heat up, and when he faces a former CY Young winner, the potential is definitely there for a 1-0 game. “Webb (14-4, 3.14) has been impressive all season, but he's been especially good lately -- going 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last four starts. He has also dominated division opponents, going 7-0 with a 2.20 ERA in eight starts as NL West hitters are batting .199 against him.“ But here is something else interesting. The under has won in 5 of the last 6 games for the Dodgers, but 3 of those games were shutouts (2 vs SF). 6 of the 8 meetings between these teams have gone over though, and none have been set at 6.5. Also, the over is 12-7 in Webb’s starts this season. Unless you think one (or both) pitchers are going to throw shutouts, I think this game goes over 6.5.

Atl/Stl - The Braves lineup looks pretty sorry without Brian McCann, Chipper Jones, and Mark Teixera. To be able to get the Cardinals at this good a price, you should probably take it. Hampton hasn’t shown much since he came back from his 32nd DL stint of his career. Pujols and Co. are gaining momentum, and they are looking to sweep the series in Atlanta for the first time since they moved from Milwaukee. Cardinals -125 win this one in another high-scoring game.

LAA/NYY - Best record in baseball, no love. I know why, they are the Bronx Bombers, but still Pettite is facing one of the hottest teams in the league. The Angels though, have the best road record as well, and their starting pitcher has at least been pitching well enough to keep them in games. “He improved to 2-1 despite a 5.70 ERA in four starts in July by winning Saturday at Baltimore as he yielded five runs over 5 1-3 innings in an 11-6 victory.” The Angels and Yankees have both been putting up football scores, and I think this one will be another similar contest. The Angels are great value at +135, but I think this game goes over 9.5 pretty easily.

CHW/Min - This game features 2 pretty good pitchers, and 2 pretty good offenses. "The Twins right-hander has allowed more than three runs only twice all year, both times on the road against good offenses (Texas and Detroit.) He even notched 11 strikeouts and just one walk in those two subpar outings. For the season, Baker owns a sporty 81/18 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His 1.11 WHIP is the seventh-lowest in the major leagues among full-time starting pitchers." My original thought was to take the White Sox, but when I saw that Baker was only a -125 favorite, I am switching to the Twins. The game is a little risky though, even though the Twins play so well at home, mainly because Danks has good numbers vs these Twins, and Chicago can easily put some runs on the board. I'd stay away.

PICK WINNERS, MAKE MONEY

Wednesday's Results 2-3 (1-0 on strong endorsments)
Yesterday's Results 4-2 (1-0 on strong endorsements)

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Thursday morning...

Another positive day! 4-2 was good for +290 units again yesterday, with another 1-0 on strong endorsements. People were following my lead, and jumped all over Danny Haren, who pitched a gem after giving up 2 runs in the first. The D'backs received all five votes yesterday, and they won easily, 8-3. The Astros and Mets made it interesting until the end, but alas came up short.

Chc/Mil - Oh man, this is the series that keeps on giving. Two teams battling each other keep throwing out some of the best starters in the National League. On the surface, it would seem the Cubs have the clear advantage. Look closer, and you can see that Dave Bush has a 2.95 ERA and .266 BAA at home. Also, “Bush has made three July starts, spanning 21 innings, and for the month he's notched 25 strikeouts and has not issued a single walk!” In his career vs the Cubs though, he hasn’t fared so well. “The right-hander has struggled no matter where he's faced the Cubs, going 1-6 with a 4.88 ERA. He allowed six runs in 5 1-3 innings of a 6-3 loss at Chicago on April 3 for his fourth consecutive defeat to the Cubs.” The Brewers haven’t broken out offensively yet, but they are capable of doing so at any time. Meanwhile, Harden hasn’t won a game yet as a Cub (3 starts), “Harden (0-1, 1.04 ERA) has allowed two earned runs and eight hits in 17 1-3 innings over three starts since being traded to Chicago from Oakland on July 8. He's struck out 10 in each contest .“ Sometimes, you just got to go with your gut. It is very hard to sweep a team on the roal in the MLB, especially a team as potent as the Brewers. This represents some of the best value you will get all year with them, Take a chance on the Brew-crew at +130.

Yesterday's Results 4-2 (1-0 on strong endorsements)

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