MIN - No team in baseball has been better than Minnesota over the past two months, and it's been even longer since the Twins lost a series at the Metrodome. The Twins are 36-17 in the past two months -- a record that's all the more impressive considering they are 11-11 on the road in that span. Minnesota has gone 25-6 in its last 31 games at the Metrodome to climb to the top of the division -- a surge due in large part to a prolific offense. The Twins have averaged 6.2 runs in those 31 home games, a number they pushed up during a three-game sweep of Seattle over the weekend. Minnesota scored 27 runs in the series, capped by an 11-8 win Sunday. The A's will try to get their offense going Monday against Nick Blackburn (9-6, 3.73 ERA). The rookie right-hander has looked excellent in stretches this season, but struggled in his latest start. He gave up four runs in 4 2-3 innings of a 9-6, 12-inning loss to New York on Tuesday. They picked up a rare win Friday by beating Chicago 6-4, but totaled two runs in the series' final two games, capped by a 13-1 loss Sunday. Blackburn has never faced the A's.
OAK - All-Star Justin Duchscherer (10-8, 2.59) will oppose Blackburn. Duchscherer hasn't pitched well recently, going 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA in his last four starts, but was better in his last outing. He gave up three runs over 6 1-3 innings in a 3-2 loss to Tampa Bay on Wednesday. Oakland took two of three at home against the Twins from April 22-24. The A's are the only team in baseball with an OBP below .300 (the Mendoza Line equivalent of on-base percentage) since the All-Star break. After averaging nearly seven innings over his first 17 starts, Justin Duchscherer is averaging just more than 5 2/3 innings in his past four starts. With a near nonexistent offense backing him, Duchscherer doesn't have much margin for error, and with his luck beginning to balance out, he's no longer a fantasy ace. The A's score slightly less than four runs per game, but they've averaged 2.8 since the All-Star break in going 5-23.
PICK - TWINS -150
Monday, August 18, 2008
Monday 8/18: Angels -105 @ Rays -110, 9.5
ANA - The Angels (76-46) have firsthand experience playing in TB, getting swept in St. Petersburg May 9-11. They were shut out 2-0 in each of the first two games before losing 8-5 in the finale. On Monday, they'll try to ride Jon Garland (11-7, 4.26 ERA). The right-hander has won three of his last four starts despite a 4.97 ERA over that span. He was outstanding at Tropicana Field on May 9, pitching eight shutout innings before reliever Justin Speier gave up a walk-off home run to Evan Longoria in Tampa Bay's 2-0 win. Garland has never lost in St. Petersburg, going 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA in six career starts. The Angels took two of three from the Rays in Anaheim from June 9-11, but would still need to sweep this set to avoid losing the season series for only the second time. They are 65-36 all-time against the Rays.
TB - Tropicana Field has presented a different kind of problem all season for opponents, as the Rays (75-48) have won six of their last seven there to move to 45-17 at home -- tied for the best home record in baseball. The Rays have been playing well everywhere, as they return to Florida after going 7-3 on a 10-game road trip, capped with Sunday's 7-4 win over Texas. Thanks to Boston's 15-4 loss to Toronto earlier in the day, they opened a 4 1/2-game lead on the Red Sox atop the AL East. Garland will be opposed by Andy Sonnanstine (12-6, 4.35). The Rays' leader in victories has been sharp this month, going 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA in three August starts. The right-hander has struggled against Los Angeles, however, going 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in two career starts. He gave up five runs in five innings but did not receive a decision in Tampa Bay's 8-5 win on May 11.
Garland is pitching well enough, and the Angels are better team here, even on the road. The Rays have played admirably since Crawford and Longoria went down, but Sonnastine comes back to earth today, let's take the Angels as an underdog -105.
TB - Tropicana Field has presented a different kind of problem all season for opponents, as the Rays (75-48) have won six of their last seven there to move to 45-17 at home -- tied for the best home record in baseball. The Rays have been playing well everywhere, as they return to Florida after going 7-3 on a 10-game road trip, capped with Sunday's 7-4 win over Texas. Thanks to Boston's 15-4 loss to Toronto earlier in the day, they opened a 4 1/2-game lead on the Red Sox atop the AL East. Garland will be opposed by Andy Sonnanstine (12-6, 4.35). The Rays' leader in victories has been sharp this month, going 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA in three August starts. The right-hander has struggled against Los Angeles, however, going 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in two career starts. He gave up five runs in five innings but did not receive a decision in Tampa Bay's 8-5 win on May 11.
Garland is pitching well enough, and the Angels are better team here, even on the road. The Rays have played admirably since Crawford and Longoria went down, but Sonnastine comes back to earth today, let's take the Angels as an underdog -105.
Monday 8/18: Red Sox -125 @ Orioles +110, 8.5
BOS - The Orioles' offense has the highest slugging percentage in the majors (by 15 points) since the All-Star break, and its .364 on-base percentage ranks second. The word "juggernaut" wouldn't normally be an adjective to describe the Orioles' offensive exploits -- their OPS ranked a respectable 12th before the All-Star break -- but until the bats cool down, protect your starters against them, Jon Lester included. … Lester, who is 8-1 with a 2.87 ERA over his last 12 starts, limited hard-hitting Texas to three runs and seven hits while fanning six over 7 1-3 innings in an 8-4 home victory on Wednesday. Lester is 4-0 with a 3.25 ERA in six career outing versus the Orioles, and held them to two runs and seven hits over seven innings against Guthrie in June. Boston is 7-5 versus Baltimore in 2008, taking two of three at Fenway Park from July 11-13.
BAL - Guthrie, who is 1-1 with a 3.58 ERA in seven career games versus the Red Sox, was reached for five runs and seven hits while walking a season-high five over 4 2-3 innings in a 9-2 loss at Boston on June 12. But the right-hander has since gone 7-1 with a 2.51 ERA in 11 outings for the Orioles (60-63), and has posted an impressive 1.23 ERA in winning a career-high four consecutive starts. He was dominant again Wednesday, holding Cleveland to one run and four hits in seven innings of a 6-1 road victory. Guthrie has allowed one earned run in each of his past four starts, and since June, nine of his 14 starts have resulted in exactly one earned run allowed, including a shutdown of the mighty Rangers offense two starts ago. With Guthrie pitching that well, you can feel comfortable starting him until he proves otherwise, even against the Red Sox (.801 team OPS, third in the majors). … "I haven't been a part of or seen a team swinging the bats as well as we are right now," right fielder Nick Markakis told the Orioles' official Web site. Markakis, who went 3-for-5 with an RBI on Sunday, is batting .313 (5-for-16) versus Boston's scheduled starter Jon Lester (11-4, 3.25).
The Sox have lost 2 in a row, and things don't get easier here. I think for value, the Orioles at +110 is a great value pick. I'll back Guthrie and the O's offense at home.
PICK - ORIOLES +110
BAL - Guthrie, who is 1-1 with a 3.58 ERA in seven career games versus the Red Sox, was reached for five runs and seven hits while walking a season-high five over 4 2-3 innings in a 9-2 loss at Boston on June 12. But the right-hander has since gone 7-1 with a 2.51 ERA in 11 outings for the Orioles (60-63), and has posted an impressive 1.23 ERA in winning a career-high four consecutive starts. He was dominant again Wednesday, holding Cleveland to one run and four hits in seven innings of a 6-1 road victory. Guthrie has allowed one earned run in each of his past four starts, and since June, nine of his 14 starts have resulted in exactly one earned run allowed, including a shutdown of the mighty Rangers offense two starts ago. With Guthrie pitching that well, you can feel comfortable starting him until he proves otherwise, even against the Red Sox (.801 team OPS, third in the majors). … "I haven't been a part of or seen a team swinging the bats as well as we are right now," right fielder Nick Markakis told the Orioles' official Web site. Markakis, who went 3-for-5 with an RBI on Sunday, is batting .313 (5-for-16) versus Boston's scheduled starter Jon Lester (11-4, 3.25).
The Sox have lost 2 in a row, and things don't get easier here. I think for value, the Orioles at +110 is a great value pick. I'll back Guthrie and the O's offense at home.
PICK - ORIOLES +110
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