Gambling can be a fickle thing. Sometimes no matter how much research you do, the ball can bounce the wrong way, or someone can get hurt, and it affects the entire outcome of the game; costing (or making) you a lot of money. The smart thing to do is not panic, play the odds, and realize that in the long run, the only way to make money is to keep from going on tilt. It doesn't hurt to be a little lucky.
With only a few games pending (Arizona up 6-0), it looks like I'm going 4-4 with my picks today, and K7 went 2-2. We both needed some help from the White Sox in the ninth and got it, just barely reaching the total of 10-5 (6-5 final). Like I said, sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. The Brewers win streak finally ended, and Wandy Rod threw a gem. The runline bet was probably a little optimistic, but you have to roll while the team is hot. The Phillies sure dissappointed, as Brad Lidge came in in the ninth to contain a 1-0 deficit. He proceeded to give up a grand slam to Brian McCann en route to an 8 run ninth.
More importantly though, pj20 went 2-0 again on the "strong endorsements". I hope some of you followed the lead and put big money on Danny Haren (NL CY Young winner, calling it) and the Rays. That's 9 for the past 9 if you are keeping track at home. I was also on record for saying the Nationals were the best value of the day, I'm interested to see how that game finishes.
And I'm going to start putting a daily poll of the "Best Bets", so at least maybe we can see some kind of census in the picks. Today's winner (with a whopping 2 votes) - Phillies. Guh.
No betting advice this weekend, be back Monday.
pj20
Friday, July 25, 2008
They can't all be winners!
Wow, what a way to end my 9 game pick streak. Taking the over this morning was a calculated gamble that the 2 offenses would be able to get to the starting pitchers, and the weather and ballpark factor would contribute to a few additional runs. Final score? 3-2 Marlins.
The only reason I'm writing here is because my logic was not horrible. In fact, there were TWENTY runners left on base, including the Cubs leaving the bases loaded TWICE, and runners on second and third two more times. The Marlins didn't score when they loaded the bases either. It was just one of those days.
Just venting frustration, nobody else probably bet that anyway.
email me if you have questions/comments/concerns.
petejohnson20@gmail.com
holla.
The only reason I'm writing here is because my logic was not horrible. In fact, there were TWENTY runners left on base, including the Cubs leaving the bases loaded TWICE, and runners on second and third two more times. The Marlins didn't score when they loaded the bases either. It was just one of those days.
Just venting frustration, nobody else probably bet that anyway.
email me if you have questions/comments/concerns.
petejohnson20@gmail.com
holla.
More Baseball picks - Friday July 25, 2008
Red - strong endorsement, Bold Underline - good bet.
Atl/Phi - The Phillies are already 8-1 vs the Braves this season, and they might be without Chipper. That, coupled with the fact they are playing in their home ballpark is the reason they are favorites. The fact they have fallen out of first place (which they held at the ASB) should give them a little extra motivation. The case for the Braves is their starter, Jair Jurrjens, who is 9-5 on the year, but has a 2.70 era and 1.05 whip in his past 5 starts. Kyle Kendrick on the other hand, is 2-1 in his last 5, but only has 14 k's in 30 innings with a 1.47 whip (coming off a 4.1 ip, 7 er loss to the marlins). Looking a little closer, "In the right-hander's (jurrjens) lone start against the Phillies on July 3, Jurrjens allowed four runs and eight hits in seven innings of a 4-1 loss.".....and "Kendrick is 3-0 with a 4.13 ERA in five career starts against the Braves, including 2-0 with a 4.15 ERA in three starts this season." At that price, with no Chipper possibly,I'm going with the Phillies -125 to bust out and try to get their lead back.
Stl/NYM - Pelfrey has won his last 4 decisions and has been noticably better at home during his recent hot streak. The Cardinals are having bullpen WOES (franklin, Izzy both struggling of late), with Franklin giving up 5 HR in his last 11 ip. If you want to put action on this game, I like Pelfrey and the Mets at -185, but that is a steep price. Bet with caution, and consider the runline. Also, the Cardinals starter Boggs is 3-1 in his last five starts, despite having a 6.75 era, and 1.72 whip in that span.
SD/Pit - don't touch this game. Zach Duke has been horrid lately, but the Pirates are hot. No telling which way this goes.
Col/Cin - Another tough game, but this one actually feature 2 good pitchers. Cook and Volquez have been 2 of the biggest/best surprises in the NL this year, and both have stats warranting support. Edinson, however, in his last 5 starts has only had a 5.20 era, despite only losing 1 decision. Another thing worth pointing out is that the Rockies are 11-24 in current situations (away, night games on grass). I'm staying away since the total I think is pretty accurate (8.5) for those offenses.
Hou/Mil - The Brewers are on an absolute roll, having not lost since the all-star break. Wandy, being the homer he is (get it, he's good at home), has been actually pretty good of late (3-0 past 5 starts). Manny Parra though, has been on another level. Brewers at home, and with Manny going 2-0 with a 1.61, 1.07 in his past 5, I'd find a way to bet the Brewers. Since Houston has lost 4 in a row (including being swept by the lowly pirates at home), and the Brewers have won 7 in a row, no reason to fade right now. I'd feel safe taking the runline -1.5 at +125.
SF/Ari - I competely agree with K7's research of this game (see below), so I'm finding a way to get on the Haren train. The under is set for a pitchers duel (7.0), and I'm pretty sure we see one with the Giants gaining confidence, and power-lefty Sanchez on the hill. Plus, the D-backs have the worst road OPS in the NL. Take Danny Haren -135, and/or the Under of 7.0.
LAD/Was - 2 pitchers on a roll, but the price on Billingsley is too high (-200). Consider Lannan +180 for a deeeep sleeper, as he is the best value pick of the day. Only if you feel like gambling though.
LAA/Bal - I havn't figure Saunders or the Orioles out. Maybe K7 can tackle this one.
CHW/Det - I like the over bet of 10.5, but I also like the Tigers -125. The White Sox are a good team though, so no matter how hot Detroit has been, the Sox offense can explode at any time. I say don't start either pitcher in fantasy, and hope for a slugfest. Over 10.5, I agree.
TB/KC - Today's starters have combined to give up 10! homers in their last five starts. So whose been worse? It would have to be Bannister and his 7.86 era over the past 5. Edwin has only struck out 12 batters in his last 31.2 ip, but had an 8 inning, 1 er win @ the Royals 2 starts ago. The Rays have lost 8 straight road games, but should be able to take advantage of Bannister..."Bannister allowed six earned runs and eight hits in five innings of an 11-2 loss at Tampa Bay on July 4." Take the better team, and the better (at least for upside) pitcher. Rays -120 is the bet.
PICK WINNERS, MAKE MONEY.
Wednesday's Results - 3-0-1 (1-0 on strong endorsements)
Yesterday's Results - 5-0 (no strong endorsements)
Overall - 7-0 past 7 strong endorsements
pj20
Atl/Phi - The Phillies are already 8-1 vs the Braves this season, and they might be without Chipper. That, coupled with the fact they are playing in their home ballpark is the reason they are favorites. The fact they have fallen out of first place (which they held at the ASB) should give them a little extra motivation. The case for the Braves is their starter, Jair Jurrjens, who is 9-5 on the year, but has a 2.70 era and 1.05 whip in his past 5 starts. Kyle Kendrick on the other hand, is 2-1 in his last 5, but only has 14 k's in 30 innings with a 1.47 whip (coming off a 4.1 ip, 7 er loss to the marlins). Looking a little closer, "In the right-hander's (jurrjens) lone start against the Phillies on July 3, Jurrjens allowed four runs and eight hits in seven innings of a 4-1 loss.".....and "Kendrick is 3-0 with a 4.13 ERA in five career starts against the Braves, including 2-0 with a 4.15 ERA in three starts this season." At that price, with no Chipper possibly,I'm going with the Phillies -125 to bust out and try to get their lead back.
Stl/NYM - Pelfrey has won his last 4 decisions and has been noticably better at home during his recent hot streak. The Cardinals are having bullpen WOES (franklin, Izzy both struggling of late), with Franklin giving up 5 HR in his last 11 ip. If you want to put action on this game, I like Pelfrey and the Mets at -185, but that is a steep price. Bet with caution, and consider the runline. Also, the Cardinals starter Boggs is 3-1 in his last five starts, despite having a 6.75 era, and 1.72 whip in that span.
SD/Pit - don't touch this game. Zach Duke has been horrid lately, but the Pirates are hot. No telling which way this goes.
Col/Cin - Another tough game, but this one actually feature 2 good pitchers. Cook and Volquez have been 2 of the biggest/best surprises in the NL this year, and both have stats warranting support. Edinson, however, in his last 5 starts has only had a 5.20 era, despite only losing 1 decision. Another thing worth pointing out is that the Rockies are 11-24 in current situations (away, night games on grass). I'm staying away since the total I think is pretty accurate (8.5) for those offenses.
Hou/Mil - The Brewers are on an absolute roll, having not lost since the all-star break. Wandy, being the homer he is (get it, he's good at home), has been actually pretty good of late (3-0 past 5 starts). Manny Parra though, has been on another level. Brewers at home, and with Manny going 2-0 with a 1.61, 1.07 in his past 5, I'd find a way to bet the Brewers. Since Houston has lost 4 in a row (including being swept by the lowly pirates at home), and the Brewers have won 7 in a row, no reason to fade right now. I'd feel safe taking the runline -1.5 at +125.
SF/Ari - I competely agree with K7's research of this game (see below), so I'm finding a way to get on the Haren train. The under is set for a pitchers duel (7.0), and I'm pretty sure we see one with the Giants gaining confidence, and power-lefty Sanchez on the hill. Plus, the D-backs have the worst road OPS in the NL. Take Danny Haren -135, and/or the Under of 7.0.
LAD/Was - 2 pitchers on a roll, but the price on Billingsley is too high (-200). Consider Lannan +180 for a deeeep sleeper, as he is the best value pick of the day. Only if you feel like gambling though.
LAA/Bal - I havn't figure Saunders or the Orioles out. Maybe K7 can tackle this one.
CHW/Det - I like the over bet of 10.5, but I also like the Tigers -125. The White Sox are a good team though, so no matter how hot Detroit has been, the Sox offense can explode at any time. I say don't start either pitcher in fantasy, and hope for a slugfest. Over 10.5, I agree.
TB/KC - Today's starters have combined to give up 10! homers in their last five starts. So whose been worse? It would have to be Bannister and his 7.86 era over the past 5. Edwin has only struck out 12 batters in his last 31.2 ip, but had an 8 inning, 1 er win @ the Royals 2 starts ago. The Rays have lost 8 straight road games, but should be able to take advantage of Bannister..."Bannister allowed six earned runs and eight hits in five innings of an 11-2 loss at Tampa Bay on July 4." Take the better team, and the better (at least for upside) pitcher. Rays -120 is the bet.
PICK WINNERS, MAKE MONEY.
Wednesday's Results - 3-0-1 (1-0 on strong endorsements)
Yesterday's Results - 5-0 (no strong endorsements)
Overall - 7-0 past 7 strong endorsements
pj20
Guest Contributor - Friday July 25, 2008
This is my buddy K7, The Wizard. He knows his shit...
Cleveland -1.5 on the run line at +105... I never like to do this but I don't want to lay -220 (it's just against what I do) but I'm also confident in Cliff Lee. Lee is 5-1 in his last six decisions and has allowed just two runs in his past fifteen innings of work including a complete game. ESPN says "Twins hitters have batted a combined .181 with three homers and a .529 OPS in 155 at-bats lifetime against the Indians' Cliff Lee. He should continue his phenomenal season against one of the league's worst offenses versus left-handers (.705 team OPS)." Lee is also a sparkling 5-0 at home with a 1.62 ERA. All of that is on Cleveland's side and then you see Livan Hernandez's numbers. Well they make you cringe... 2-5 on the road with an ERA of 7.48 and an ERA against Cleveland of 10.00 this season. I love Cleveland here...
Over 10.5 runs in the Detroit Chicago game... Both sides of this game scream runs, runs, runs. ESPN says "Load up on White Sox hitters against the Tigers' Nate Robertson, seeing that as a team, they have batted .304 with 16 homers and a .933 OPS lifetime against the left-hander. Even lefty-hitting Jim Thome has gotten into the act, batting .471 (8-for-17) with two doubles and two homers against Robertson. Jermaine Dye is a .371 career hitter (13-for-35) with five homers against the southpaw." Roberson has an ERA of 6.35 in two starts this year against Chicago and an ERA of 7.66 in July. He's allowed 12 earned runs in his last 9 1/3 innings worked. ESPN then later adds this bit of information cautioning against Gavin Floyd looking for trouble "in Detroit, seeing as he's 3-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in eight road starts. Not to mention that in his past seven starts, he has a 4.35 ERA and has allowed nine home runs. These Tigers can hit."
Boston over New York -135... Josh Beckett is on the hump for the Red Sox and he's 3-0 this year against their rivals from New York. His numbers in July (5.68 ERA) worry me, but then you look and see that he's 2-1 in the month. Whatever it is, the Red Sox seem to win when he pitches. He's coming off a somewhat shaky last three starts that have seen his ERA rise from 3.65 to 3.98 but he's won two of those starts. David Ortiz is back in the middle of the Red Sox order as they return to Fenway where they're a league best 25 games over .500. The Yankees have been hot but they're just a .500 team on the road and have struggled in Boston. ESPN adds "Josh Beckett is a must-start even against the Yankees, as he has won all three of his appearances against them this season, each of them a quality start. The challenge, then, is whether his opponent, Joba Chamberlain, is a worthwhile option for fantasy. I say yes, noting that he went six strong innings and allowed three runs against these Red Sox on July 6. Still, Chamberlain's win potential is a bit less, so keep it in mind"
DBacks over Giants -135... Danny Haren only gets better as the heat of summer kicks in as he is a career 12-5 in the month of July. "The Giants might have defeated the Diamondbacks and Dan Haren on May 27, but since that turn, the right-hander is 4-1 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in nine starts." He's among the hottest pitchers in baseball, so count on another masterpiece. Talk about hot, the guy has a 1.23 ERA in July. The Giants are coming off a sweep of the Nationals at home and they're one of the worst road teams in baseball. I look for Haren to bring them back to earth. ESPN adds "It's a shame for Jonathan Sanchez that he has to face Haren; he has a slim chance at a win as a result. Diamondbacks hitters have batted .363 with a .960 OPS in 80 career at-bats combined against Sanchez, although, to be fair, he has held his own against them in two meetings this season, with a 1-0 record, 4.09 ERA and 1.55 WHIP."
pj20 picks to come...
Cleveland -1.5 on the run line at +105... I never like to do this but I don't want to lay -220 (it's just against what I do) but I'm also confident in Cliff Lee. Lee is 5-1 in his last six decisions and has allowed just two runs in his past fifteen innings of work including a complete game. ESPN says "Twins hitters have batted a combined .181 with three homers and a .529 OPS in 155 at-bats lifetime against the Indians' Cliff Lee. He should continue his phenomenal season against one of the league's worst offenses versus left-handers (.705 team OPS)." Lee is also a sparkling 5-0 at home with a 1.62 ERA. All of that is on Cleveland's side and then you see Livan Hernandez's numbers. Well they make you cringe... 2-5 on the road with an ERA of 7.48 and an ERA against Cleveland of 10.00 this season. I love Cleveland here...
Over 10.5 runs in the Detroit Chicago game... Both sides of this game scream runs, runs, runs. ESPN says "Load up on White Sox hitters against the Tigers' Nate Robertson, seeing that as a team, they have batted .304 with 16 homers and a .933 OPS lifetime against the left-hander. Even lefty-hitting Jim Thome has gotten into the act, batting .471 (8-for-17) with two doubles and two homers against Robertson. Jermaine Dye is a .371 career hitter (13-for-35) with five homers against the southpaw." Roberson has an ERA of 6.35 in two starts this year against Chicago and an ERA of 7.66 in July. He's allowed 12 earned runs in his last 9 1/3 innings worked. ESPN then later adds this bit of information cautioning against Gavin Floyd looking for trouble "in Detroit, seeing as he's 3-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in eight road starts. Not to mention that in his past seven starts, he has a 4.35 ERA and has allowed nine home runs. These Tigers can hit."
Boston over New York -135... Josh Beckett is on the hump for the Red Sox and he's 3-0 this year against their rivals from New York. His numbers in July (5.68 ERA) worry me, but then you look and see that he's 2-1 in the month. Whatever it is, the Red Sox seem to win when he pitches. He's coming off a somewhat shaky last three starts that have seen his ERA rise from 3.65 to 3.98 but he's won two of those starts. David Ortiz is back in the middle of the Red Sox order as they return to Fenway where they're a league best 25 games over .500. The Yankees have been hot but they're just a .500 team on the road and have struggled in Boston. ESPN adds "Josh Beckett is a must-start even against the Yankees, as he has won all three of his appearances against them this season, each of them a quality start. The challenge, then, is whether his opponent, Joba Chamberlain, is a worthwhile option for fantasy. I say yes, noting that he went six strong innings and allowed three runs against these Red Sox on July 6. Still, Chamberlain's win potential is a bit less, so keep it in mind"
DBacks over Giants -135... Danny Haren only gets better as the heat of summer kicks in as he is a career 12-5 in the month of July. "The Giants might have defeated the Diamondbacks and Dan Haren on May 27, but since that turn, the right-hander is 4-1 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in nine starts." He's among the hottest pitchers in baseball, so count on another masterpiece. Talk about hot, the guy has a 1.23 ERA in July. The Giants are coming off a sweep of the Nationals at home and they're one of the worst road teams in baseball. I look for Haren to bring them back to earth. ESPN adds "It's a shame for Jonathan Sanchez that he has to face Haren; he has a slim chance at a win as a result. Diamondbacks hitters have batted .363 with a .960 OPS in 80 career at-bats combined against Sanchez, although, to be fair, he has held his own against them in two meetings this season, with a 1-0 record, 4.09 ERA and 1.55 WHIP."
pj20 picks to come...
Early Game - Friday July 25, 2008
Red - Strong Endorsement , Bold Underline - Good Bet
CHC/Fla - Ryan Dempster started 10-0 with a 2.58 era in his first 11 home starts this year, before losing his last one, while Florida's loss last night snapped a 10 game win streak vs. the Cubs (see yesterday). Soriano is back, and the offense is pumping (16 runs last 2). Also, the wind is blowing out pretty good, which could factor into the amount of home runs hit. Josh Johnson is returning from injury and has done decent so far (0-0, 3.86, 11 k's in 10 ip). Even though Dempster still has a sparkly era on the season (3.05), his past 5 starts are only at 4.50. The fact that the Cubs offense is starting to come alive, and the wind is blowing out, this could be a summer slugfest. I'm starting my day off with Over 9.5.
Rest of the games should be up by 2:00 pt.
Wednesday's Results - 3-0-1
Yesterday's Results - 5-0!!
pj20
CHC/Fla - Ryan Dempster started 10-0 with a 2.58 era in his first 11 home starts this year, before losing his last one, while Florida's loss last night snapped a 10 game win streak vs. the Cubs (see yesterday). Soriano is back, and the offense is pumping (16 runs last 2). Also, the wind is blowing out pretty good, which could factor into the amount of home runs hit. Josh Johnson is returning from injury and has done decent so far (0-0, 3.86, 11 k's in 10 ip). Even though Dempster still has a sparkly era on the season (3.05), his past 5 starts are only at 4.50. The fact that the Cubs offense is starting to come alive, and the wind is blowing out, this could be a summer slugfest. I'm starting my day off with Over 9.5.
Rest of the games should be up by 2:00 pt.
Wednesday's Results - 3-0-1
Yesterday's Results - 5-0!!
pj20
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