One game for Thursday August 7, 2008

This is possibly my pick of the week right here, and I know I am only setting myself up for failure by saying so. But truth be told, even though I’m 0-2 in my last 2 Strong Picks, I would make those same bets again if I had the chance. They call it gambling for a reason.

Tor/Oak - Every single thing I have researched and think, says this game goes under the posted total of 7.0, even though that is an extremely low total. I half-expected it to be set at 5.5. Put it this way, the total has gone under in 6 of the last 7 games in this series, and the Under is 22-7 in Oakland’s last 29 overall. Even Toronto on the year is only 45-62 on the over. The SP’s in this game are two of the AL’s hottest/best. The MLB ERA leader “has never made a start against the Blue Jays, though he has a 1.96 ERA in 10 relief appearances against them, giving up four runs and 10 hits in 18 1-3 innings.” Burnett is 7-2 in his last nine outings, with a 3.28 ERA, and is facing an Oakland offense that has lost 9 in a row, and has averaged 2.65 runs while hitting .214 in its last 20 games. They lost all four of Duchscherer’s starts in that stretch even though he pitched great in 3 of them. One piece of evidence against this under is that Burnett is only 0-1 with a 6.97 ERA in 2 starts vs. the A’s, but the last time he faced them he only lost 3-1 (under). Plus, Oakland hasn’t scored more than 3 runs in any game during the 9 game losing streak. Obviously, the Duke should give the A’s a chance to stay in the game, and gives reason to fade Oakland, but in reality the A’s might not score a run. And despite Burnett’s struggles vs. the A’s, ask anyone who talks to me, the most weight for me goes to recent outings over career performance. Burnett is 4-1 with a 2.18 ERA in his past 5. TAKE THE UNDER, AND PREPARE FOR A GREAT PITCHERS DUEL.

Last 3 days 5-5 (0-2 on strong picks)

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