Min/Sea – The Twins have the best record in the Majors in their last 41 games (28-13), while the Mariners have won only one of their past 8 home games (won last). “Seattle starter Miguel Batista (4-11, 6.43) continues to suffer through a brutal stretch, as he is 1-7 with a 7.11 ERA in 18 appearances -- 10 starts -- since May 16. The right-hander's 6.67 ERA in his 18 starts is the worst among major leaguers with at least 15 starts in 2008.” Glen Perkins, on the other hand is 8-3 on the year, and is coming off a win vs. the White Sox in his last start. The way the Twins have been playing, at -130, this is looking like the bargain of the day. Take the Twins -130 and don’t look back.
TB/Cle – The Rays have been great this season, and especially at home, where they have the AL’s best record at 43-16. Cliff Lee leads the AL in era, and has been brilliant against the Rays (1.57 ERA, last 3 outings vs. them). The Rays have won 11 of 16 since their last series vs. Cleveland, and they look to carry their momentum. Garza has been a different pitcher at home, going 6-1 with a 2.10 ERA in 10 starts at Tropicana this season. His last start was on the road, but it was also his first CG shutout of his career. The only poor performance in the last month was vs. these Indians, but he’s pitched well enough lately to call that an aberration. I think pitching will be the story in this game as well, and I’m taking the under of 7.5.
Atl/SF – If there is one thing I’ve learned as a Giants fan, it’s that they DO NOT score any runs for Matt Cain. It is almost a proven fact. The good thing for bettors is that Matt Cain does not give up many runs himself. He’s allowed only 1 homer since May, and the Braves lineup is bordering a AAA squad. I would love to recommend Cain as a small underdog of -105, but the reality is the Giants might not score a run off Jair today either. With the AT&T park factor, and the way these two have been pitching, I expect a duel to the end, with neither team getting much offensive output. The Giants have been under in five straight, while the Braves have been under in 3 straight. Look for that to continue, and take Under 7.0.
Notes on some heavy favorites....
Oak/Tor – The A’s have been horrible against anyone lately, and today will be no easier. But, they have a few things going for them. First, they have won 7 straight road games against the Blue Jays, and Halladay is only 5-4 with a 4.90 ERA against them. Halladay has won 3 straight decisions vs them, but the price he commands is unreasonable at -210. If you feel like taking a shot at an underdog, this seems like a great place to do it, as Gallagher should be able to keep the A’s in the game.
Bal/LAA – “The Orioles have hit well off Joe Saunders in two previous starts (5.40 ERA), including just two weeks ago, when Saunders allowed four runs (three earned) in 6 2/3 innings. The O's are also fairly tough on lefties, with a team OPS of .797 against lefties this season, so Saunders is no slam-dunk start.”
Bos/KC – Gil Meche is 4-2 with a 3.69 ERA in 8 starts vs. the Red Sox. Plus, “The Royals have won eight of the right-hander's last nine starts, and he is 6-1 with a 2.78 ERA in that span. Meche limited Oakland to two runs while fanning eight over seven innings in 5-2 road victory on Tuesday.” Buchholz, on the other hand, has done NOTHING to deserve the -115 line he has, except have the Red Sox offense behind him. That, and the fact that 5 Royals got ejected last night just when they were starting to show some signs of life on offense. Stay away.
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