Oops. 4-4 after 4 innings.
I could not have been further from the actual results with my prediction. This goes to show that no matter how many stats you have, you still: a) need to be able to read into them and b) need to be prepared for bad breaks, poor outings, etc... You gut feeling is not enough, and statistics can be misleading.
Point is, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. All that matters in gambling on baseball is winners and losers, the journey is not important. Some people learn that the hard way.
It it makes anyone feel better, I put my money where my mouth (er, keyboard) is, and bet heavy on the under myself. I lost, and am not currently too happy of a camper.
They can't all be winners!
Thursday, August 7, 2008
One game for Thursday August 7, 2008
This is possibly my pick of the week right here, and I know I am only setting myself up for failure by saying so. But truth be told, even though I’m 0-2 in my last 2 Strong Picks, I would make those same bets again if I had the chance. They call it gambling for a reason.
Tor/Oak - Every single thing I have researched and think, says this game goes under the posted total of 7.0, even though that is an extremely low total. I half-expected it to be set at 5.5. Put it this way, the total has gone under in 6 of the last 7 games in this series, and the Under is 22-7 in Oakland’s last 29 overall. Even Toronto on the year is only 45-62 on the over. The SP’s in this game are two of the AL’s hottest/best. The MLB ERA leader “has never made a start against the Blue Jays, though he has a 1.96 ERA in 10 relief appearances against them, giving up four runs and 10 hits in 18 1-3 innings.” Burnett is 7-2 in his last nine outings, with a 3.28 ERA, and is facing an Oakland offense that has lost 9 in a row, and has averaged 2.65 runs while hitting .214 in its last 20 games. They lost all four of Duchscherer’s starts in that stretch even though he pitched great in 3 of them. One piece of evidence against this under is that Burnett is only 0-1 with a 6.97 ERA in 2 starts vs. the A’s, but the last time he faced them he only lost 3-1 (under). Plus, Oakland hasn’t scored more than 3 runs in any game during the 9 game losing streak. Obviously, the Duke should give the A’s a chance to stay in the game, and gives reason to fade Oakland, but in reality the A’s might not score a run. And despite Burnett’s struggles vs. the A’s, ask anyone who talks to me, the most weight for me goes to recent outings over career performance. Burnett is 4-1 with a 2.18 ERA in his past 5. TAKE THE UNDER, AND PREPARE FOR A GREAT PITCHERS DUEL.
Last 3 days 5-5 (0-2 on strong picks)
pj20
Tor/Oak - Every single thing I have researched and think, says this game goes under the posted total of 7.0, even though that is an extremely low total. I half-expected it to be set at 5.5. Put it this way, the total has gone under in 6 of the last 7 games in this series, and the Under is 22-7 in Oakland’s last 29 overall. Even Toronto on the year is only 45-62 on the over. The SP’s in this game are two of the AL’s hottest/best. The MLB ERA leader “has never made a start against the Blue Jays, though he has a 1.96 ERA in 10 relief appearances against them, giving up four runs and 10 hits in 18 1-3 innings.” Burnett is 7-2 in his last nine outings, with a 3.28 ERA, and is facing an Oakland offense that has lost 9 in a row, and has averaged 2.65 runs while hitting .214 in its last 20 games. They lost all four of Duchscherer’s starts in that stretch even though he pitched great in 3 of them. One piece of evidence against this under is that Burnett is only 0-1 with a 6.97 ERA in 2 starts vs. the A’s, but the last time he faced them he only lost 3-1 (under). Plus, Oakland hasn’t scored more than 3 runs in any game during the 9 game losing streak. Obviously, the Duke should give the A’s a chance to stay in the game, and gives reason to fade Oakland, but in reality the A’s might not score a run. And despite Burnett’s struggles vs. the A’s, ask anyone who talks to me, the most weight for me goes to recent outings over career performance. Burnett is 4-1 with a 2.18 ERA in his past 5. TAKE THE UNDER, AND PREPARE FOR A GREAT PITCHERS DUEL.
Last 3 days 5-5 (0-2 on strong picks)
pj20
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