So instead of doing my research and emailing it to a select few people, I have decided to share the wealth! Tune here to pj20-cutty.blogspot.com for Daily Gambling Picks (MLB, NFL, NHL). Weekends might be a little difficult, so no guarantees. I'll try to have everything posted by 2:00 pt daily.
NOTE: I also intend this to be somewhat of a fantasy blog, I just need to write all the damn articles I've been planning for weeks now. Coming soon...
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Baseball Picks - Thursday July 24, 2008
Red - Strong Endorsement, Underline - Good bet
Tor/Bal - Love Halladay, but concerned about the weather, and I don't think it's great value for an offensively-challenged road team. Hallday wins at -150, mainly because the bullpens are worn, and you can guarantee Doc Halladay goes deeper into the game then Daniel "shit the bed" Cabrera. Still, Orioles offense is much better at home. Plus, the game started at 10:30 et.
TB/KC - Garza gave up a season-high seven earned runs to Cleveland in his last road start July 12 to fall to 2-4 with a 5.91 ERA away from home. He is 0-3 career vs the Royals, including their only defeat in 4 games last month v KC. Meche is 1-4 career against the Rays, but the Royals just got blasted by the Tigers in all 3 games. Good news for Gil - "Gil Meche is proving to be the ace the Royals were looking for when they broke the bank to sign him. Even though Kansas City is struggling at 11 games under .500, the club has won six of his last seven outings, including a 9-1 shellacking of the White Sox in his last trip to the hill. Meche allowed just two hits over 6 1/3 innings." Both pitchers can be dominating at times. The fact that the Rays play better at home leads me to believe this might be one of those times. I like Under 8.5.
Phi/NYM - I went with the Under 9.0 in this game, without doing a ton of research. "Perez, who is 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA in seven day starts this season, also enters on a bit of a roll, going 1-1 with a 1.38 ERA over his last four outings." Also, Perez has 18.1 scoreless against philly this year, with only 11 singles. Plus, Moyer is coming off a decent start and has been great over the last month.
Was/SF - I can't bet the total, especially since the first two games have been so unpredictably high-scoring, and the bullpens have been blowing it. I really like Cain -140 here, as the Giants have confidence. "the Giants have outscored the Nationals 37-13 in winning the teams' first six matchups this year." And I don't think you can under-sell the importance of the come-back last night. Cain "The right-hander has posted a 3.79 ERA and struck out 19 in 19 innings spanning his last three starts, but he's 0-2 in that stretch and the Giants have lost all three games. Cain, who gave up four runs in six innings of a 9-1 loss to Milwaukee on Friday, is 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA in five career starts against the Nationals. He held them to one run in 6 1-3 innings of a 3-2 victory June 9." Chance for their first sweep at home all year? I'm backing the kid.
SD/Pit - "Herrera was called up from Double-A ball before the All-Star break to help out and the Cardinals greeted him with 11 hits and six earned runs in just over four innings of work. Herrera's first start following the break was worse when the Rockies put seven runs on him over less than two innings." And THAT dude is favored. I don't know much about him, and all I know about Clay Hensley is that he is a converted reliever, with a decent skill set, and above-average velocity. The Pirates (47-54) have won only two of the last 14 meetings with the Padres (38-64), dating to August 2005, but they are coming off a sweep of Houston. SD is reeling on the other hand..."San Diego lost 9-5 at Cincinnati on Wednesday to fall to 1-6 during its season-high 11-game road trip. Its bullpen has an 8.69 ERA over the last seven games, and ranks last in the NL with a 4.53 ERA on the season." No telling who wins this one, but I bet more than 10.5 runs are scored in that Band box. Not confident.
Flo/Chc - I like the Cubs to win tonight, and I don't even need research. Everything points to a Cubs breakout (esp. after 10! runs last night and getting Soriano back), and they need to be big coming back home to stay even with the Brewers. But get this, the Marlins have won 10 in a row against the Cubs! Still, the Cubs are an NL-best 37-12 at Wrigley (marlins won 4 straight there though). Zambrano though, walked 6 in his last start (season-high), but still is 3-1 in 7 starts against Florida (2.54 era). Olson has been getting plenty of run support but Uggla is 1 for his last 22, and Hanley is 2 for his last 21. Not only do I like Zambrano to dominate, I'm taking the Runline, Cubs -1.5 -105.
Mil/Stl - Brewers are 13-6 in Sheets starts this season, and Milwaukee hasn't lost since the break. Wellemeyer on the other hand, has lostin 5 of his last 6 starts with a 7.72 era in that span. ESPN doesn't like him either - "but he's not the same pitcher he was before missing time because of elbow trouble. The Cardinals right-hander has allowed 18 earned runs in 22 innings during July and is not a good bet going forward." Roll with the Brewcrew at a great price of -135.
PICK WINNERS, MAKE MONEY.
Tuesdays picks 5-3 (2-0 on strong endorsements)
Yesterday's picks 3-0-1 (1-0 on strong endorsements)
pj20
Tor/Bal - Love Halladay, but concerned about the weather, and I don't think it's great value for an offensively-challenged road team. Hallday wins at -150, mainly because the bullpens are worn, and you can guarantee Doc Halladay goes deeper into the game then Daniel "shit the bed" Cabrera. Still, Orioles offense is much better at home. Plus, the game started at 10:30 et.
TB/KC - Garza gave up a season-high seven earned runs to Cleveland in his last road start July 12 to fall to 2-4 with a 5.91 ERA away from home. He is 0-3 career vs the Royals, including their only defeat in 4 games last month v KC. Meche is 1-4 career against the Rays, but the Royals just got blasted by the Tigers in all 3 games. Good news for Gil - "Gil Meche is proving to be the ace the Royals were looking for when they broke the bank to sign him. Even though Kansas City is struggling at 11 games under .500, the club has won six of his last seven outings, including a 9-1 shellacking of the White Sox in his last trip to the hill. Meche allowed just two hits over 6 1/3 innings." Both pitchers can be dominating at times. The fact that the Rays play better at home leads me to believe this might be one of those times. I like Under 8.5.
Phi/NYM - I went with the Under 9.0 in this game, without doing a ton of research. "Perez, who is 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA in seven day starts this season, also enters on a bit of a roll, going 1-1 with a 1.38 ERA over his last four outings." Also, Perez has 18.1 scoreless against philly this year, with only 11 singles. Plus, Moyer is coming off a decent start and has been great over the last month.
Was/SF - I can't bet the total, especially since the first two games have been so unpredictably high-scoring, and the bullpens have been blowing it. I really like Cain -140 here, as the Giants have confidence. "the Giants have outscored the Nationals 37-13 in winning the teams' first six matchups this year." And I don't think you can under-sell the importance of the come-back last night. Cain "The right-hander has posted a 3.79 ERA and struck out 19 in 19 innings spanning his last three starts, but he's 0-2 in that stretch and the Giants have lost all three games. Cain, who gave up four runs in six innings of a 9-1 loss to Milwaukee on Friday, is 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA in five career starts against the Nationals. He held them to one run in 6 1-3 innings of a 3-2 victory June 9." Chance for their first sweep at home all year? I'm backing the kid.
SD/Pit - "Herrera was called up from Double-A ball before the All-Star break to help out and the Cardinals greeted him with 11 hits and six earned runs in just over four innings of work. Herrera's first start following the break was worse when the Rockies put seven runs on him over less than two innings." And THAT dude is favored. I don't know much about him, and all I know about Clay Hensley is that he is a converted reliever, with a decent skill set, and above-average velocity. The Pirates (47-54) have won only two of the last 14 meetings with the Padres (38-64), dating to August 2005, but they are coming off a sweep of Houston. SD is reeling on the other hand..."San Diego lost 9-5 at Cincinnati on Wednesday to fall to 1-6 during its season-high 11-game road trip. Its bullpen has an 8.69 ERA over the last seven games, and ranks last in the NL with a 4.53 ERA on the season." No telling who wins this one, but I bet more than 10.5 runs are scored in that Band box. Not confident.
Flo/Chc - I like the Cubs to win tonight, and I don't even need research. Everything points to a Cubs breakout (esp. after 10! runs last night and getting Soriano back), and they need to be big coming back home to stay even with the Brewers. But get this, the Marlins have won 10 in a row against the Cubs! Still, the Cubs are an NL-best 37-12 at Wrigley (marlins won 4 straight there though). Zambrano though, walked 6 in his last start (season-high), but still is 3-1 in 7 starts against Florida (2.54 era). Olson has been getting plenty of run support but Uggla is 1 for his last 22, and Hanley is 2 for his last 21. Not only do I like Zambrano to dominate, I'm taking the Runline, Cubs -1.5 -105.
Mil/Stl - Brewers are 13-6 in Sheets starts this season, and Milwaukee hasn't lost since the break. Wellemeyer on the other hand, has lostin 5 of his last 6 starts with a 7.72 era in that span. ESPN doesn't like him either - "but he's not the same pitcher he was before missing time because of elbow trouble. The Cardinals right-hander has allowed 18 earned runs in 22 innings during July and is not a good bet going forward." Roll with the Brewcrew at a great price of -135.
PICK WINNERS, MAKE MONEY.
Tuesdays picks 5-3 (2-0 on strong endorsements)
Yesterday's picks 3-0-1 (1-0 on strong endorsements)
pj20
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