Picks for Tuesday August 5, 2008

FRUSTRATING DAY YESTERDAY, as the Twins blew a 6-0 sixth inning lead as my strong pick of the day. More on that later.

Phi/Flo – Jamie Moyer OWNS the Marlins. Plain and simple, “Moyer (10-6, 3.79 ERA) has won each of his 10 starts against the Marlins, including three this season, while posting a 3.03 ERA.” Overall, he is 3-0 in his last 5 starts, and the Phillies have won 8 of 9. The only thing that might stand in the way of 11-0 for Moyer will be Josh Johnson, who just got his first win since coming back from Tommy-john. He’s looked really good so far, and the Marlins are 4-0 when he starts. But he is facing a hot Phillies team, and only has a 4.64 ERA vs. Philly in 3 career starts. I’ll back the hot squad at home, Phillies -145.

LAD/STL – These teams both have reason for optimism the rest of the way out. The Dodgers just got Manny and are looking to get right back in the hunt of the NL West race. Their starter has been awesome lately. “The right-hander has allowed two runs and 10 hits in 16 2-3 innings over his last two starts. He was outstanding Wednesday, throwing his first career shutout by scattering five hits and striking out eight in a 4-0 victory over San Francisco…Billingsley is 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA in three games -- two starts -- against the Cardinals.” The Cards on the other hand are getting former CY Young winner Chris Carpenter back. He’s making his first start at home since 2006, and should provide an emotional lift. However, with Ankiel banged up and Pujols struggling, I will take advantage of a rusty Carpenter, and take the Dodgers -115. Interesting note, this game opened with St. Louis as a -120 favorite, and has since changed significantly.

NYY/Tex – I shouldn’t need a lot of stats to convince you that the Yankees and Rangers both know how to put some runs on the board. Especially when they play each other. The last 2 games have both played over the current total of 11.5, and the 2 prior games were played in Yankee stadium. The weather is expected to reach 100+ again, and that means the ball will be flying. Texas’ starter, Matt Harrison is 1-2 with a 9.35 ERA in his last four starts, and has never faced these Yankees (although they are less potent vs LH pitching). Pettitte has been less-than-stellar lately, posting a 4.05 ERA in his last 5 starts, winning 3 of them. I think this game could get ugly, quickly, so look for lots of runs and take over 11.5.

TB/Cle – I’ve been accused lately of taking a lot of Rays unders, and with good reason. I believe in their pitching staff, and not as much in their offense. For this matchup, here is another stat to look at. “The Indians are the only AL team the Rays have not beaten this season, as Tampa Bay's pitching has failed to deliver against Cleveland. Rays pitchers have a 7.68 ERA versus the Indians, nearly three runs worse than they've been against any other opponent.” However, “One pitcher the Indians have not beaten this year is Edwin Jackson, who didn't pitch in last month's series. Jackson (7-7, 4.20 ERA) made three starts against Cleveland last year, going 0-1 despite a 3.00 ERA.” His opponent, Fausto Carmona, is returning from a hip injury, but looked great in his last start where he beat Detroit. He pitched well in his only career start vs. these Rays, and I look for him to pitch well again. With Carl Crawford banged up, both pitchers should be able to contain the other team’s hitters again. If Edwin can avoid the long ball (6 in past 5 starts despite a 3.77 ERA), I really like this game to go under 8.5 again. Plus, Cleveland has played under in 4 straight games.

pj20

Not a lot of time today, so possibly more to come today, but definately more tomorrow...