Monday 8/18: Red Sox -125 @ Orioles +110, 8.5

BOS - The Orioles' offense has the highest slugging percentage in the majors (by 15 points) since the All-Star break, and its .364 on-base percentage ranks second. The word "juggernaut" wouldn't normally be an adjective to describe the Orioles' offensive exploits -- their OPS ranked a respectable 12th before the All-Star break -- but until the bats cool down, protect your starters against them, Jon Lester included. … Lester, who is 8-1 with a 2.87 ERA over his last 12 starts, limited hard-hitting Texas to three runs and seven hits while fanning six over 7 1-3 innings in an 8-4 home victory on Wednesday. Lester is 4-0 with a 3.25 ERA in six career outing versus the Orioles, and held them to two runs and seven hits over seven innings against Guthrie in June. Boston is 7-5 versus Baltimore in 2008, taking two of three at Fenway Park from July 11-13.

BAL - Guthrie, who is 1-1 with a 3.58 ERA in seven career games versus the Red Sox, was reached for five runs and seven hits while walking a season-high five over 4 2-3 innings in a 9-2 loss at Boston on June 12. But the right-hander has since gone 7-1 with a 2.51 ERA in 11 outings for the Orioles (60-63), and has posted an impressive 1.23 ERA in winning a career-high four consecutive starts. He was dominant again Wednesday, holding Cleveland to one run and four hits in seven innings of a 6-1 road victory. Guthrie has allowed one earned run in each of his past four starts, and since June, nine of his 14 starts have resulted in exactly one earned run allowed, including a shutdown of the mighty Rangers offense two starts ago. With Guthrie pitching that well, you can feel comfortable starting him until he proves otherwise, even against the Red Sox (.801 team OPS, third in the majors). … "I haven't been a part of or seen a team swinging the bats as well as we are right now," right fielder Nick Markakis told the Orioles' official Web site. Markakis, who went 3-for-5 with an RBI on Sunday, is batting .313 (5-for-16) versus Boston's scheduled starter Jon Lester (11-4, 3.25).
The Sox have lost 2 in a row, and things don't get easier here. I think for value, the Orioles at +110 is a great value pick. I'll back Guthrie and the O's offense at home.

PICK - ORIOLES +110