Picks for Friday August 8, 2008

HOU/CIN – Wolf vs. Cueto -129, 9.5
Cueto 0-3 with a 6.30 ERA past 5 starts and the Reds have averaged only 3.2 runs and batted .224 while losing 11 of their last 13 games. Wolf is 7-2 with a 3.20 ERA in 13 starts versus the Reds, and has held them to two runs and eight hits while striking out 20 in 14 innings spanning his last two starts against them -- both victories. Cueto has lost each of his first two career starts against the Astros, giving up five runs and eight hits in each game. Neither pitcher has been throwing that great (combined 11 ERA last 5 games), but the offenses has both been a little stale also. I think today though there should be some runs put up on the board. But you never can tell with rookies, which person will show up. I’d be inclined to take the over, but I’m staying away.

FLA/NYM – Nolasco vs. Perez -130, 8.5
Perez is pretty hot coming into this match-up with a 2.56 ERA and 33 k’s in his last 5 starts, despite only winning one decision (blew it last time I recommended him also). Nolasco has pitched a gem against them already this year, but the middle of the lineup is hitting a combined .500 against him for their careers. However, “Nolasco is 2-0 with a 2.43 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 29 2-3 innings over his last four road starts. He's won his last two outings at New York, posting a 3.60 ERA. Nolasco, though, has struggled when facing Wright, who is 8-for-16 with a homer against him.” “Oliver Perez went 2-1 with a 1.36 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 39 2-3 innings over his previous six starts. He capped off that stretch -- which included a 1-0 record and 1.31 ERA in three games at Shea -- with a strong outing at Florida on July 29, giving up one run and five hits with five strikeouts in six innings of a 4-1 victory.” I’m not making a recommendation here, I’m just laying out the facts. I think this is enough to get me to consider both the Mets ML and Under 8.5.

SD/COL – Peavy vs. Rusch
Glendon Rusch has actually pitched really well the past few starts with a 3.67 ERA, and a 3-0 record in his past 5. He has to face Jake Peavy though, the reigning NL CY Young winner. The Rockies are MUCH better at home, so a small underdog is about right. The total is not Coors-ian today (only 9.0), but that is more an indication Peavy is starting. I’d stay away.

CLE/TOR – Reyes vs. Purcey -120, 9.5
"The Blue Jayslook for their fifth win in a row overall -- and their ninth straight against teams from the Central -- when they open a three-game home series with the Cleveland Indians on Friday. Toronto will hope to get a better start from David Purcey (1-2, 8.35 ERA) than what it's seen in the rookie's first four starts. He lasted five innings at Texas on Sunday, giving up five runs on just three hits -- all homers. The left-hander has allowed six home runs in the first 18 1-3 innings of his career." "Newcomer Anthony Reyes will make his first appearance with the Indians since they acquired him from St. Louis prior to the trade deadline. Reyes, who was 2-1 with a 4.91 ERA in 10 relief appearances with St. Louis, was once considered the Cardinals' top prospect and won Game 1 of the 2006 World Series."

ATL/ARI - This has been an up and down season for Doug Davis (cancer, near perfect game, got lit last start), but it has been pretty much all up for Jorge Campillo (not the Braves though). Campillo is almost 30, but still has rookie status. He is 6-4 with a 2.92 ERA since joining the rotation, and is 3-0 with a 1.26 ERA in his last 5 starts. Davis gave up 5 earned in his last start (1.2 IP), and is 1-0 with a 2.42 ERA in 4 starts vs. the Braves. Since I don't have much confidence in either team's offense right now, I am going to recommend the Under of 9.0.

Accidently deleted my research on these 2 games, but I am putting money down on both. Sorry no stats...

MIN/KC - Kevin Slowey has been really up and down, but when he is up, he is UP. He looks to dominate an offense that is one of the leagues worst, and faces a pitcher I have little to no respect for. The Twins are clearly the better team, so at -135, I'll take my chances.

CHW/BOS - Battle of 2 talented lefties with super-offenses behind them. Buehrle just recently ending a dominating run that seemingly lasted for 2 months, and Lester has a 2.14 ERA (4-0) in his last 5 starts. The difference between the 2 is how their opponents fare against LHP. Boston eats LH pitching for breakfast, while Buehrle has typically struggled against the Sox in the past. I'm still searching for the reason Lester is only a -115 favorite here. Take it.

pj20

Feel like gambling? Here are some underdog picks for 08-08-08

PIT/PHI – Maholm +160 vs. Blanton, 10
My first underdog pick is because of the starting pitching match-up. For the Pirates, Paul Maholm has a 3.60 ERA, 1.11 WHIP last 5 starts. His best start of the season was against the Phillies (2-hitter), and he is 3-1 vs. them in his career. He did struggle in his last outing, but that was in Chicago. He had given up 2 ER or less in 5 of the previous 6. The Phillies on the other hand have been struggling. “They have been held to 17 runs in six games this month, going 3-3, after scoring 40 during a five-game winning streak to close July.” Their pitcher, “Blanton won for the first time since joining the Phillies in a mid-July trade with Oakland. He's 6-12 overall and had a 6.65 ERA in his previous 12 outings, going 3-6.” There is no way Blanton, or the Phillies deserve this price.

WAS/MIL – Balester +270 vs. Sabathia, 8
The reason I chose to highlight this game is two-fold. Firstly, I don’t think the Nationals get ANY credit ever, but this is also the biggest line I’ve ever seen. “The Nationals will send rookie Collin Balester (2-3, 4.55 ERA) to the mound Friday. While the right-hander has struggled to pitch deep into games, he has a 3.31 ERA in three starts since the All-Star break. He beat Cincinnati on Sunday, allowing one run in 5 1-3 innings of a 4-2 win.” The Brewers offense has not been crushing the ball lately, and “The Brewers and Nationals split four games in Washington in May, but the Nats were swept in a three-game series the last time they visited Milwaukee from May 7-9, 2007.” Worth a chance?

TEX/BAL – Mendoza +155vs. Guthrie, 9.5
This isn’t the biggest line, but I think Texas definitely has a chance to win this game, and at that price is a bargain. Texas starter Mendoza beat the Orioles in his lone appearance against them last year, allowing one run in five innings of Texas' 3-2 win on Sept. 21. The Rangers have won four of six overall in the season series with the Orioles, dropping both series openers but bouncing back to win the final two games of each three-game set. The reason the Orioles are such heavy favorites is because their starter Guthrie is 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA over his last 5 starts, and the Orioles are 23-14 in night games at home.

TB/SEA – Shields vs. Silva +160, 8.5
I hate the Mariners right now, but there is no denying that they are starting to show some signs of life. Plus, they get to play the Rays (AL best home record) at home. The same can be said for Shields, who “has pitched at home this season, however, he hasn't been the same away from St. Petersburg. He's 7-1 with a 2.21 ERA at Tropicana Field, but 2-6 with a 5.93 ERA on the road, where Tampa Bay has lost seven of his 10 starts.” Shields hasn't faced the Mariners this season, but he has a 1.57 ERA in three career starts against them and went eight innings both times he pitched at Safeco Field. The Mariners Carlos Silva, however, has a 1.57 ERA in 3 starts vs TB (none this year though). My main reason for liking the M’s is Raul Ibanez. “Ibanez, who many thought would be dealt to a contender at the trade deadline, has been baseball's best hitter over the last week. The left fielder is batting .480 (12-for-25) with three homers and 16 RBIs in his last six games.”
pj20