Brutal day yesterday, going 0-2 (-245 units, worst day of the year by far) and losing BOTH games in extra innings. Have no fear though, today's games offer some great value...
Few teams are swinging the bat the way the Arizona Diamondbacks are right now. And leaving the task of slowing them down to youngster Clayton Kershaw might not be the most productive result. Kershaw only went 4.2 in his last start, as he was chased early by walks. He is winless in 3 career starts vs. the D'backs, and actually hasn't won a decision of any-kind since July 18, 2009. Ian Kennedy is far from the D'backs ace, and he was unspectacular in his first start (5 IP, 3 ER v SD). Considering how much better the Dodgers play at home, and how well the Diamondbacks are swinging the bats, I think this total is way too low. Take the over with confidence.
Pick: Over 8
Gavin Floyd -105 @ Ricky Romero -115, 8.5
Floyd has an 8.10 career ERA against Toronto and has never beaten them. His ERA on the road in the past 2 seasons is almost 5. Couple that with the fact that the White Sox beat Toronto in Toronto for the first time in 11 games last night (and it was in extras thanks to a blown Frasor save), and I think it's clear who has the edge here. Even Romero has been pitching well, and has a solid offense behind him for this one. Last April, Romero started out on fire, going 2-0 with a 1.61 ERA in four starts. Look for him to continue that success (esp. since CHW hitters have never seen him) and go deep into this game.
Pick: Toronto -115
Paul Maholm +175 @ Matt Cain -210, 7.5
Now I love the Giants more than a person should love a non-significant other or family member, but I still try to remain realistic when it comes to expectations and gambling. Usually I try to avoid betting on Gyros wins (unless LinCY is on the mound) and just focus on the total. Well, I think this is a good opportunity for that here. The Giants were on-fire last night at the plate, and gave Zito some much-deserved support. The same might be needed tonight, but I'm not so sure how easy those runs will come. Maholm owns a career 2.85 ERA against the Giants (6 starts). Cain was phenominal against the Pirates last year, going 1-0 with a 0.56 ERA. If you watched his last start, you know he was cruising until he got in trouble in the seventh. Basically, he pitched better than his line suggested. I like the Giants here, but the price isn't right. Instead, bet on the bats of both teams to be slowed in the early innings.
Pick: Under 4.0 (first 5 innings)
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