More picks for Wednesday

FLO/PHI – Sanchez is coming off his first start in 15 months, but it was a good start. Now he is facing a Phillies team that handed Moyer his first career loss vs. them in 11 tries last night. His opponent, Kyle Kendrick, had a 4.1 IP, 7 ER effort last time vs. these Marlins. All things being equal, I like the value for the Marlins at +135. Both of these teams can score runs, and I think it comes down to starting pitching in this one. Take a chance on the Fish at +135.

BOS/KC – Tim Wakefield has 10 quality starts in his past 12 games, but has only won 3 of those starts somehow. “The Red Sox (65-49) have scored three runs or fewer for Wakefield in eight of his last 12 outings, including a total of six runs in his last three starts.” However, those starts have been against much better offenses than the Royals. Luke Hochevar might provide Wakefield with that run support he needs too. “The right-hander is 1-4 with a 7.36 ERA and a .304 opponent batting average since July 1. He gave up four runs and a season high-tying 10 hits in six innings of Friday's 4-2 loss to the Chicago White Sox. Hochevar also struggled May 19 at Boston, allowing seven runs -- four earned -- five hits and six walks in six innings of a 7-0 defeat as he wound up on the losing end of Jon Lester's no-hitter.” Boston has too much to play for, and I think Wakefield at least throws a QS here, take the Red Sox -145.

LA/STL – I originally really liked the Dodgers in this one, although it is tough to gain from the stats. The most important thing in my mind though, is that Lowe, despite his lack of success vs the Cardinals in his career, is pitching too well right now. Here are a few quotes from the AP report. “Pineiro gave up six runs and 10 hits in six innings of a 9-4 loss at Atlanta on Thursday. Over his last four starts, the right-hander is 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA while allowing 10 hits in each contest.”...“In his only previous start versus the Dodgers, Pineiro allowed three earned runs in 6 1-3 innings of a 9-4 defeat to Los Angeles on June 20, 2006 while with Seattle.”...“The right-hander (lowe) is 3-1 with a 3.06 ERA in his last five outings, but 1-5 with a 5.24 ERA in six career starts against the Cardinals. He gave up two runs in seven innings of a 2-1 loss to St. Louis on May 23.” Read into that how you want, I'm taking the Dodgers -130.

Yesterday's Results 1-3
Monday's Results 2-1 (0-1 on strong picks)

pj20

Picks for Wednesday August 6, 2008

These are my favorite 2 games from the first set of research last night and this morning. The Twins game is set for an early start.

Min/Sea – This series has been a crazy one, as Minnesota has essentially tanked in the first two games, with their bullpen imploding in both. The Mariners, and especially Raul Ibanez, have come to life, and look to sweep the series. The Twins starter, Nick Blackburn, will give the Twins a chance to salvage the series though. Here’s another rookie, but you’d never know it by the way he’s been playing. “He appears to be getting stronger as the season goes on. The 26-year-old had a 2.45 ERA in July and he started off August with a brilliant seven-inning, six-hit, one-run showing against Cleveland, Aug. 1. Control is this young pitcher’s greatest strength; he’s walked just six batters in his last 10 starts.” Seattle’s starter Washburn has a 3.90 ERA in his past 5 starts, but is only 1-3 in that span and has only struck out 13 batters in the past 32.1 IP. The Twins are clearly the better team, and they need this game to stay on pace with Detroit and the White Sox. They get back in the win column today, Twinkies -135.

DET/CHW – This is a clash of two of the best offenses in the AL, against 2 above-average starting pitchers. “Verlander does have a nine-inning one-run gem against Chicago this season but consider this: in four starts against the White Sox this year, including the complete-game gem, Verlander has a 6.15 ERA. Besides that good outing, he's allowed 17 earned runs (22 total) in 17 1/3 innings.” On the other side, “ John Danks has only been average at home this season, with a 4.04 ERA in 11 starts at U.S. Cellular Field (2.63 ERA on the road).” He also has a streak of 3 straight non-quality starts. Not the type of confidence you’d want in your SP, despite his talent level. Both teams have played over in 3 straight games, and the bullpens are a little overworked (Detroit’s is in shambles). “Tigers relievers are 22-for-42 in save situations and have yielded 17 runs in 21 innings during the team's skid.” I think this game goes over 9.5 relatively easily.

pj20

A couple more games later...