Feel like gambling? Here are some underdog picks for 08-08-08

PIT/PHI – Maholm +160 vs. Blanton, 10
My first underdog pick is because of the starting pitching match-up. For the Pirates, Paul Maholm has a 3.60 ERA, 1.11 WHIP last 5 starts. His best start of the season was against the Phillies (2-hitter), and he is 3-1 vs. them in his career. He did struggle in his last outing, but that was in Chicago. He had given up 2 ER or less in 5 of the previous 6. The Phillies on the other hand have been struggling. “They have been held to 17 runs in six games this month, going 3-3, after scoring 40 during a five-game winning streak to close July.” Their pitcher, “Blanton won for the first time since joining the Phillies in a mid-July trade with Oakland. He's 6-12 overall and had a 6.65 ERA in his previous 12 outings, going 3-6.” There is no way Blanton, or the Phillies deserve this price.

WAS/MIL – Balester +270 vs. Sabathia, 8
The reason I chose to highlight this game is two-fold. Firstly, I don’t think the Nationals get ANY credit ever, but this is also the biggest line I’ve ever seen. “The Nationals will send rookie Collin Balester (2-3, 4.55 ERA) to the mound Friday. While the right-hander has struggled to pitch deep into games, he has a 3.31 ERA in three starts since the All-Star break. He beat Cincinnati on Sunday, allowing one run in 5 1-3 innings of a 4-2 win.” The Brewers offense has not been crushing the ball lately, and “The Brewers and Nationals split four games in Washington in May, but the Nats were swept in a three-game series the last time they visited Milwaukee from May 7-9, 2007.” Worth a chance?

TEX/BAL – Mendoza +155vs. Guthrie, 9.5
This isn’t the biggest line, but I think Texas definitely has a chance to win this game, and at that price is a bargain. Texas starter Mendoza beat the Orioles in his lone appearance against them last year, allowing one run in five innings of Texas' 3-2 win on Sept. 21. The Rangers have won four of six overall in the season series with the Orioles, dropping both series openers but bouncing back to win the final two games of each three-game set. The reason the Orioles are such heavy favorites is because their starter Guthrie is 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA over his last 5 starts, and the Orioles are 23-14 in night games at home.

TB/SEA – Shields vs. Silva +160, 8.5
I hate the Mariners right now, but there is no denying that they are starting to show some signs of life. Plus, they get to play the Rays (AL best home record) at home. The same can be said for Shields, who “has pitched at home this season, however, he hasn't been the same away from St. Petersburg. He's 7-1 with a 2.21 ERA at Tropicana Field, but 2-6 with a 5.93 ERA on the road, where Tampa Bay has lost seven of his 10 starts.” Shields hasn't faced the Mariners this season, but he has a 1.57 ERA in three career starts against them and went eight innings both times he pitched at Safeco Field. The Mariners Carlos Silva, however, has a 1.57 ERA in 3 starts vs TB (none this year though). My main reason for liking the M’s is Raul Ibanez. “Ibanez, who many thought would be dealt to a contender at the trade deadline, has been baseball's best hitter over the last week. The left fielder is batting .480 (12-for-25) with three homers and 16 RBIs in his last six games.”
pj20