Back to winning - WAY more fun

I thought I had some good research today, and 4-1 surely justifies it for me (+400 units). Hitting the Strong Endorsement was the key, but Oswalt sure had to work for it. An Adam Dunn granny to take a 4-3 lead seriously got the adrenaline flowing, and I was still at work watching it on the damn online baseball package. A win is a win though, and the Astros held on 5-4.

All three games where I recommended the total (TB/Tor, Pit/Col, Atl/Stl) hit, and all of them relatively easily. I saw the action on the Colorado game was moving towards game-time, but different books had different prices. I bet we see an 11.5 tomorrow. The Texas/Sea game, which I said to stay away from, actually received 2 votes for the under.

Mark Buehrle ended his run of impressive pitching, which is almost more of a testament to the Twins, as it is to how well Buehrle has been pitching. The Twins have been playing extremely well over the past month, yet nobody really seems to be talking about them. Very interesting, hopefully the oddsmakers are not taking notice either.

The reason I put the Yankees and the Dodgers in a different style today was because I thought they were both going to win, but I didn't think the price associated with the game represented good value. I threw out a few stats just to discuss the possibility. I considered runlines, but really those games are best to stay away from.

Thanks everyone for the feedback today, I really appreciate it. If you think I am out of my mind with any of these picks, I absolutely want to hear about it. Feel free to post a comment, or send me an email petejohnson20@gmail.com.

holla

MLB picks for Monday July 28, 2008

Red - strong endorsement, Bold underline - good bet.

Tor/TB – On the surface, this game points to a pitchers duel. Firstly, both teams have quality starters going, and the Rays have played under in 4 straight games. Shields is 4-1 with a 3.38 era and 0.98 whip in his past 5 starts. “A.J. Burnett has a 1.79 ERA in his past three starts, each against a different divisional foe. In each of the past two seasons Burnett has managed to string together a strong second half, and his strong strikeout rate this season combined with his ability to limit home runs (just 12 in 139 innings) make it easy to believe that trend will repeat itself.” Plus, the Rays have averaged 2.7 runs in their last 16 games, finishing with a double-figure hit total only once in that span while batting .211 as a team. In their previous match-up Shields won 2-1. Toronto also is 44-54 vs. the total this year. So the stats back up my first instinct, and I’m taking the Under of 7.5, even though it is low.

Atl/Stl – I expect a lot of runs to be scored in this one. The Braves have played over for 4 straight games, and their offense is finally clicking. Facing the Cards pitching staff should help continue the trend…“The Cardinals' starters are 2-3 with a 6.60 ERA in their last 11 games. They had a 4.13 ERA before the break. Their starter, Braden Looper (9-8, 4.49 ERA) is 0-3 with a 5.55 ERA in his last five starts….Looper was battered in his lone start at Turner Field. He gave up seven runs and 10 hits in 2 2-3 innings in a 14-6 Cardinals' loss on July 21, 2007.” The downside for the Braves is that they might be without Chipper Jones and Brian McCann, while St. Louis might be without Rick Ankiel. I think this will be a close game, but if you get these teams crappy bullpen’s involved, I like Over 9.5.

SD/Ari – 2 teams that know each other well, are playing both coming off of sweeps. The advantage for the Padres is Maddux, who despite not having a decision since May 10, he still has a 2.94 era in home starts during that span. However, he is only 2-11 vs. the D’backs, the worst vs any opponent. Owings is getting his first start since July 9, and “In his only start of the season against the Padres on April 26, Owings gave up five runs and five hits in five innings of an 8-7, 13-inning loss. He is 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA in four career starts versus them.” The Pad’s are playing their best ball of the year, and a win here for Maddux would speak volumes about the current state of the team. I like the Padres at home -115 to take advantage of a rusty Owings. It is worth noting that the last 4 Ari-SD games have gone under the current total.

Min/Chw - The White Sox are 7-4 against the Twins in the season series, including wins in the last five meetings. Buehrle is starting and has a 1.76 era in his past 9 starts. He is also 21-11 against the Twinkies, his best record against any opponent (including 3 in a row at the Metrodome). Slowey has won his last three starts at the Metrodome, including a three-hit shutout of Milwaukee on June 29. As for Slowey, “The right-hander lost for the first time in seven overall starts Tuesday, though, yielding four runs and five hits in 5 1-3 innings of an 8-2 road loss to the New York Yankees. Slowey has been hit hard in two losses to the White Sox this season -- both in Chicago -- giving up 11 runs and 14 hits over eight total innings.” I think the only reason the Sox aren’t favored is because of the home-park factor, and possibly Buehrle’s early season performance against them (when he was struggs, he’s righted the ship). Great value, I’m backing Buehrle at +100, even on the road.

Tex/Sea – Temperatures are set for 100+!! Hernandez is 5-1 with a 1.98 ERA since May 31. Scott Feldman also has won three consecutive decisions over six starts since his last loss June 13. He went six innings on Monday, allowing one run and four hits in Texas' 6-1 victory over the Chicago White Sox. I’d stay away.

Hou/Cin – Oswalt is back from his recent injury, while he was “2-1 with a 2.49 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 21 2-3 innings in four starts prior to getting hurt.” He says he feels NO pain, and they are coming off a 11-6 win over the Brewers. Against Cinncy, get this…”The eight-year veteran is 19-1 with a 2.46 ERA in 24 career games -- 22 starts -- against the Reds, his most wins against any opponent. He's been even better at home, going 9-0 with a 2.26 ERA in 12 appearances -- 11 starts -- versus Cincinnati.” Plus, the Astros have won the last 6 meetings in the series. The Reds, losers of five of their last seven, are coming off a disappointing sweep to Colorado, during which they were outscored 23-3 while batting .165 with one homer. Cueto gave up 5 runs last time vs these Astros. Everything here screams the Astros -145.

Col/Pit – The Rockies are on a TEAR lately, and I think they keep it up vs. Snell, even though he pitches decent at home. “Over its last eight games, Colorado has a .394 team batting average with 10 home runs and 34 doubles. The Rockies have scored in double digits four times in their last seven contests and have compiled at least 11 hits in eight straight games, their longest streak since an eight-game run in September 1999.” Snell is also 0-1 with a 7.71 era in his last 3 starts. Colorado’s starter Jason Hirsh is making his first start of the season, and he is coming off of rotator cuff surgery. I think in that bandbox, the ball will be flying. I love the over of 9.5.

Expensive lines that I like…

Kuroda -205 @ SF - 2.63 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in eight starts at Dodger Stadium, and the Dodgers have won 3 in a row, while the Giants are reeling after being swept by Arizona.

Mussina -170 vs. Bal – The Yankees just had their 8 gamer snapped last night, but they send their hottest pitcher to the mound against a team that is leaving their friendly confines for the beginning a 9 game road trip. Even though they also send their best pitcher, the Yankees are too hot right now, and they FEAST on RHP.

PICK WINNERS, MAKE MONEY.

Thursday's Results 5-0
Friday's Results 4-4 (2-0 on strong endorsements)
Weekend Results 2-3 (0-2 on strong endorsements)

pj20

Smart Betting - don't bet on weekends

Well after winning money in all five days last week, I came down negative units both Saturday (-185) and Sunday (-220). The point of this post is give one betting tip: Never bet just to bet. I titled this post "don't bet on weekends", but that mainly just applies to me. I am a man of dillegent research and statistics, and that takes both time and effort. After a night full of partying and little to no sleep, research at 9am is not ideal. There is no point betting on a game if you have not done enough research on it, and I am guilty sometimes of doing just that. Not that I didn't research stats for the games posted on Saturday (I did), but I just want to reiterate the point of gambling - Take calculated risks, that give you the best chance to win money. If you want to put your faith on a 50-50 coin flip, that is a sure-fire way to lose money in the long-run.

Tough game last night, as I recommend the Red Sox-Yankees Under 10.5, only to see the final be 9-2, losing by 0.5 a run. Once again, even though I lost the bet, I am happy with my logic.

Back to well-researched, full of statistical tidbit research for the week...

pj20

Sunday Night

Not a great day yesterday, (-165 units) and I didn't get up in time to do any research, but I do like the Under of 10.5 in the Red Sox-Yankees game.  Yankees are less potent vs LHP, and the Sox starter Jon Lester pitched a CG shutout last time he faced the Bombers.  The weather for the game might be a little shaky, possibly affecting the ability to score runs.  The ball won't carry as well, and a wet batters box is not ideal for hitting.  With the potential of Manny Rameriz to be out of the lineup again, coupled with the fact that Ortiz is still returning to form coming off his injury, makes me more confident in this pick.  Even Sidney Ponson has decent road numbers.  Remember a 6-4 game would still play under this high total.  I like both teams bullpens to hold the offenses in check, if the starters turn it over to them in a low-scoring one.

More picks tomorrow.

Quick picks for Saturday July 26, 2008

Red - Strong Endorsement, Bold Underline - Good Bet

Tor/Sea - The Blue Jays are averaging 5.6 runs over their last 14 games. Since July 8 only two teams have scored more runs. But the main thing that concerns me here is that both bullpens are pretty overworked. Morrow and Putz have both thrown multiple innings in the past few days. Neither starter can really be trusted, especially with a knuckleballer indoors. As for the Seattle starter…”The 6-foot-5 left-hander fared poorly in two emergency starts earlier this season. He walked seven while lasting 4 1-3 innings on April 18, then gave up eight runs over three innings in a 10-3 loss at Philadelphia on May 16.” It’s probably too late to bet it, but I liked the Over of 9.5.

Bos/NYY – This is a classic match up where the game could obviously go either way. The Yankees just acquired Xavier Nady and Marte via trade, and they might not be able to play immediately. ESPN daily notes breaks down the starting pitching match up as well as you can…”Andy Pettitte was tagged for five runs in 4 2/3 innings on July 3 against the Red Sox, and although he has pitched well since then, the lefty has a poor record against Boston. The Red Sox lineup is a combined 100-for-270 against Pettitte, for a .370 average and the team OPS is .966. Of all the current Red Sox who have faced Pettitte, only the injured Julio Lugo and the sparsely used Alex Cora don't have a .300 batting average or better against the veteran lefty. … Tim Wakefield has pitched into the seventh in 10 straight starts, allowing two runs or fewer in seven of them, and not allowing any more than four runs in the others. That is a model of consistency. Over many years, Wakefield has kept the Yankees' tough lineup in check. New York's lineup has combined for more than 500 at-bats versus the knuckleball and has an average of just .247. Can you guess who I think wins the Pettitte versus Wakefield match up? They battled all the way to a 1-0 game yesterday, and you would have to figure this game will play just as close. I’ll take the home team, and the defending champion Red Sox -115.

Det/CHW – Wow, Detroit lost a heart breaker last night in the ninth, and they send their ace to the mound today. Plus, “White Sox starter John Danks (7-4, 3.03) looks to bounce back from one of his worst outings of the season. The right-hander lasted only four innings against Kansas City on Sunday, allowing six runs and nine hits in a game Chicago eventually lost 8-7.” Verlander has been absolutely on fire lately, holding opponents to a .183 batting average over the last eight games. Both teams have plenty of offense, but I trust Verlander to keep the Sox at bay, while the same can’t be said for Danks. Detroit -155. Consider the over of 8.5.

KC/TB - ”Kazmir allowed a season-low two hits in seven innings of the Rays' 4-0 victory over Oakland on Monday for his first win since June 27. "It feels great. I feel like it's long overdue," said Kazmir (8-5, 2.80 ERA) after his first start since the All-Star break. "This is certainly something to build on."” The Rays finally broke the snide yesterday, where yours truly recommended them as a strong pick, and I look for them to build off that vs. Hochevar, who “tries to bounce back after getting roughed up for the third time in four games when he allowed seven runs and eight hits in five innings of a 19-4 loss to Detroit on Monday.” The Rays win this game, and I like Kazmir -170, and I'm considering the Runline.

Thursday's picks 5-0
Friday's picks 4-4 (2-0 on strong endorsements)

pj20

Results for 7/25/08

Gambling can be a fickle thing. Sometimes no matter how much research you do, the ball can bounce the wrong way, or someone can get hurt, and it affects the entire outcome of the game; costing (or making) you a lot of money. The smart thing to do is not panic, play the odds, and realize that in the long run, the only way to make money is to keep from going on tilt. It doesn't hurt to be a little lucky.

With only a few games pending (Arizona up 6-0), it looks like I'm going 4-4 with my picks today, and K7 went 2-2. We both needed some help from the White Sox in the ninth and got it, just barely reaching the total of 10-5 (6-5 final). Like I said, sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. The Brewers win streak finally ended, and Wandy Rod threw a gem. The runline bet was probably a little optimistic, but you have to roll while the team is hot. The Phillies sure dissappointed, as Brad Lidge came in in the ninth to contain a 1-0 deficit. He proceeded to give up a grand slam to Brian McCann en route to an 8 run ninth.

More importantly though, pj20 went 2-0 again on the "strong endorsements". I hope some of you followed the lead and put big money on Danny Haren (NL CY Young winner, calling it) and the Rays. That's 9 for the past 9 if you are keeping track at home. I was also on record for saying the Nationals were the best value of the day, I'm interested to see how that game finishes.

And I'm going to start putting a daily poll of the "Best Bets", so at least maybe we can see some kind of census in the picks. Today's winner (with a whopping 2 votes) - Phillies. Guh.

No betting advice this weekend, be back Monday.

pj20

They can't all be winners!

Wow, what a way to end my 9 game pick streak. Taking the over this morning was a calculated gamble that the 2 offenses would be able to get to the starting pitchers, and the weather and ballpark factor would contribute to a few additional runs. Final score? 3-2 Marlins.

The only reason I'm writing here is because my logic was not horrible. In fact, there were TWENTY runners left on base, including the Cubs leaving the bases loaded TWICE, and runners on second and third two more times. The Marlins didn't score when they loaded the bases either. It was just one of those days.

Just venting frustration, nobody else probably bet that anyway.

email me if you have questions/comments/concerns.

petejohnson20@gmail.com

holla.

More Baseball picks - Friday July 25, 2008

Red - strong endorsement, Bold Underline - good bet.

Atl/Phi - The Phillies are already 8-1 vs the Braves this season, and they might be without Chipper. That, coupled with the fact they are playing in their home ballpark is the reason they are favorites. The fact they have fallen out of first place (which they held at the ASB) should give them a little extra motivation. The case for the Braves is their starter, Jair Jurrjens, who is 9-5 on the year, but has a 2.70 era and 1.05 whip in his past 5 starts. Kyle Kendrick on the other hand, is 2-1 in his last 5, but only has 14 k's in 30 innings with a 1.47 whip (coming off a 4.1 ip, 7 er loss to the marlins). Looking a little closer, "In the right-hander's (jurrjens) lone start against the Phillies on July 3, Jurrjens allowed four runs and eight hits in seven innings of a 4-1 loss.".....and "Kendrick is 3-0 with a 4.13 ERA in five career starts against the Braves, including 2-0 with a 4.15 ERA in three starts this season." At that price, with no Chipper possibly,I'm going with the Phillies -125 to bust out and try to get their lead back.

Stl/NYM - Pelfrey has won his last 4 decisions and has been noticably better at home during his recent hot streak. The Cardinals are having bullpen WOES (franklin, Izzy both struggling of late), with Franklin giving up 5 HR in his last 11 ip. If you want to put action on this game, I like Pelfrey and the Mets at -185, but that is a steep price. Bet with caution, and consider the runline. Also, the Cardinals starter Boggs is 3-1 in his last five starts, despite having a 6.75 era, and 1.72 whip in that span.

SD/Pit - don't touch this game. Zach Duke has been horrid lately, but the Pirates are hot. No telling which way this goes.

Col/Cin - Another tough game, but this one actually feature 2 good pitchers. Cook and Volquez have been 2 of the biggest/best surprises in the NL this year, and both have stats warranting support. Edinson, however, in his last 5 starts has only had a 5.20 era, despite only losing 1 decision. Another thing worth pointing out is that the Rockies are 11-24 in current situations (away, night games on grass). I'm staying away since the total I think is pretty accurate (8.5) for those offenses.

Hou/Mil - The Brewers are on an absolute roll, having not lost since the all-star break. Wandy, being the homer he is (get it, he's good at home), has been actually pretty good of late (3-0 past 5 starts). Manny Parra though, has been on another level. Brewers at home, and with Manny going 2-0 with a 1.61, 1.07 in his past 5, I'd find a way to bet the Brewers. Since Houston has lost 4 in a row (including being swept by the lowly pirates at home), and the Brewers have won 7 in a row, no reason to fade right now. I'd feel safe taking the runline -1.5 at +125.

SF/Ari - I competely agree with K7's research of this game (see below), so I'm finding a way to get on the Haren train. The under is set for a pitchers duel (7.0), and I'm pretty sure we see one with the Giants gaining confidence, and power-lefty Sanchez on the hill. Plus, the D-backs have the worst road OPS in the NL. Take Danny Haren -135, and/or the Under of 7.0.

LAD/Was - 2 pitchers on a roll, but the price on Billingsley is too high (-200). Consider Lannan +180 for a deeeep sleeper, as he is the best value pick of the day. Only if you feel like gambling though.

LAA/Bal - I havn't figure Saunders or the Orioles out. Maybe K7 can tackle this one.

CHW/Det - I like the over bet of 10.5, but I also like the Tigers -125. The White Sox are a good team though, so no matter how hot Detroit has been, the Sox offense can explode at any time. I say don't start either pitcher in fantasy, and hope for a slugfest. Over 10.5, I agree.

TB/KC - Today's starters have combined to give up 10! homers in their last five starts. So whose been worse? It would have to be Bannister and his 7.86 era over the past 5. Edwin has only struck out 12 batters in his last 31.2 ip, but had an 8 inning, 1 er win @ the Royals 2 starts ago. The Rays have lost 8 straight road games, but should be able to take advantage of Bannister..."Bannister allowed six earned runs and eight hits in five innings of an 11-2 loss at Tampa Bay on July 4." Take the better team, and the better (at least for upside) pitcher. Rays -120 is the bet.

PICK WINNERS, MAKE MONEY.

Wednesday's Results - 3-0-1 (1-0 on strong endorsements)
Yesterday's Results - 5-0 (no strong endorsements)

Overall - 7-0 past 7 strong endorsements

pj20

Guest Contributor - Friday July 25, 2008

This is my buddy K7, The Wizard. He knows his shit...

Cleveland -1.5 on the run line at +105... I never like to do this but I don't want to lay -220 (it's just against what I do) but I'm also confident in Cliff Lee. Lee is 5-1 in his last six decisions and has allowed just two runs in his past fifteen innings of work including a complete game. ESPN says "Twins hitters have batted a combined .181 with three homers and a .529 OPS in 155 at-bats lifetime against the Indians' Cliff Lee. He should continue his phenomenal season against one of the league's worst offenses versus left-handers (.705 team OPS)." Lee is also a sparkling 5-0 at home with a 1.62 ERA. All of that is on Cleveland's side and then you see Livan Hernandez's numbers. Well they make you cringe... 2-5 on the road with an ERA of 7.48 and an ERA against Cleveland of 10.00 this season. I love Cleveland here...

Over 10.5 runs in the Detroit Chicago game... Both sides of this game scream runs, runs, runs. ESPN says "Load up on White Sox hitters against the Tigers' Nate Robertson, seeing that as a team, they have batted .304 with 16 homers and a .933 OPS lifetime against the left-hander. Even lefty-hitting Jim Thome has gotten into the act, batting .471 (8-for-17) with two doubles and two homers against Robertson. Jermaine Dye is a .371 career hitter (13-for-35) with five homers against the southpaw." Roberson has an ERA of 6.35 in two starts this year against Chicago and an ERA of 7.66 in July. He's allowed 12 earned runs in his last 9 1/3 innings worked. ESPN then later adds this bit of information cautioning against Gavin Floyd looking for trouble "in Detroit, seeing as he's 3-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in eight road starts. Not to mention that in his past seven starts, he has a 4.35 ERA and has allowed nine home runs. These Tigers can hit."

Boston over New York -135... Josh Beckett is on the hump for the Red Sox and he's 3-0 this year against their rivals from New York. His numbers in July (5.68 ERA) worry me, but then you look and see that he's 2-1 in the month. Whatever it is, the Red Sox seem to win when he pitches. He's coming off a somewhat shaky last three starts that have seen his ERA rise from 3.65 to 3.98 but he's won two of those starts. David Ortiz is back in the middle of the Red Sox order as they return to Fenway where they're a league best 25 games over .500. The Yankees have been hot but they're just a .500 team on the road and have struggled in Boston. ESPN adds "Josh Beckett is a must-start even against the Yankees, as he has won all three of his appearances against them this season, each of them a quality start. The challenge, then, is whether his opponent, Joba Chamberlain, is a worthwhile option for fantasy. I say yes, noting that he went six strong innings and allowed three runs against these Red Sox on July 6. Still, Chamberlain's win potential is a bit less, so keep it in mind"

DBacks over Giants -135... Danny Haren only gets better as the heat of summer kicks in as he is a career 12-5 in the month of July. "The Giants might have defeated the Diamondbacks and Dan Haren on May 27, but since that turn, the right-hander is 4-1 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in nine starts." He's among the hottest pitchers in baseball, so count on another masterpiece. Talk about hot, the guy has a 1.23 ERA in July. The Giants are coming off a sweep of the Nationals at home and they're one of the worst road teams in baseball. I look for Haren to bring them back to earth. ESPN adds "It's a shame for Jonathan Sanchez that he has to face Haren; he has a slim chance at a win as a result. Diamondbacks hitters have batted .363 with a .960 OPS in 80 career at-bats combined against Sanchez, although, to be fair, he has held his own against them in two meetings this season, with a 1-0 record, 4.09 ERA and 1.55 WHIP."

pj20 picks to come...

Early Game - Friday July 25, 2008

Red - Strong Endorsement , Bold Underline - Good Bet

CHC/Fla - Ryan Dempster started 10-0 with a 2.58 era in his first 11 home starts this year, before losing his last one, while Florida's loss last night snapped a 10 game win streak vs. the Cubs (see yesterday). Soriano is back, and the offense is pumping (16 runs last 2). Also, the wind is blowing out pretty good, which could factor into the amount of home runs hit. Josh Johnson is returning from injury and has done decent so far (0-0, 3.86, 11 k's in 10 ip). Even though Dempster still has a sparkly era on the season (3.05), his past 5 starts are only at 4.50. The fact that the Cubs offense is starting to come alive, and the wind is blowing out, this could be a summer slugfest. I'm starting my day off with Over 9.5.

Rest of the games should be up by 2:00 pt.

Wednesday's Results - 3-0-1
Yesterday's Results - 5-0!!

pj20

Note - daily picks by pj20

So instead of doing my research and emailing it to a select few people, I have decided to share the wealth! Tune here to pj20-cutty.blogspot.com for Daily Gambling Picks (MLB, NFL, NHL). Weekends might be a little difficult, so no guarantees. I'll try to have everything posted by 2:00 pt daily.

NOTE: I also intend this to be somewhat of a fantasy blog, I just need to write all the damn articles I've been planning for weeks now. Coming soon...

Baseball Picks - Thursday July 24, 2008

Red - Strong Endorsement, Underline - Good bet

Tor/Bal - Love Halladay, but concerned about the weather, and I don't think it's great value for an offensively-challenged road team. Hallday wins at -150, mainly because the bullpens are worn, and you can guarantee Doc Halladay goes deeper into the game then Daniel "shit the bed" Cabrera. Still, Orioles offense is much better at home. Plus, the game started at 10:30 et.

TB/KC - Garza gave up a season-high seven earned runs to Cleveland in his last road start July 12 to fall to 2-4 with a 5.91 ERA away from home. He is 0-3 career vs the Royals, including their only defeat in 4 games last month v KC. Meche is 1-4 career against the Rays, but the Royals just got blasted by the Tigers in all 3 games. Good news for Gil - "Gil Meche is proving to be the ace the Royals were looking for when they broke the bank to sign him. Even though Kansas City is struggling at 11 games under .500, the club has won six of his last seven outings, including a 9-1 shellacking of the White Sox in his last trip to the hill. Meche allowed just two hits over 6 1/3 innings." Both pitchers can be dominating at times. The fact that the Rays play better at home leads me to believe this might be one of those times. I like Under 8.5.

Phi/NYM - I went with the Under 9.0 in this game, without doing a ton of research. "Perez, who is 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA in seven day starts this season, also enters on a bit of a roll, going 1-1 with a 1.38 ERA over his last four outings." Also, Perez has 18.1 scoreless against philly this year, with only 11 singles. Plus, Moyer is coming off a decent start and has been great over the last month.

Was/SF - I can't bet the total, especially since the first two games have been so unpredictably high-scoring, and the bullpens have been blowing it. I really like Cain -140 here, as the Giants have confidence. "the Giants have outscored the Nationals 37-13 in winning the teams' first six matchups this year." And I don't think you can under-sell the importance of the come-back last night. Cain "The right-hander has posted a 3.79 ERA and struck out 19 in 19 innings spanning his last three starts, but he's 0-2 in that stretch and the Giants have lost all three games. Cain, who gave up four runs in six innings of a 9-1 loss to Milwaukee on Friday, is 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA in five career starts against the Nationals. He held them to one run in 6 1-3 innings of a 3-2 victory June 9." Chance for their first sweep at home all year? I'm backing the kid.

SD/Pit - "Herrera was called up from Double-A ball before the All-Star break to help out and the Cardinals greeted him with 11 hits and six earned runs in just over four innings of work. Herrera's first start following the break was worse when the Rockies put seven runs on him over less than two innings." And THAT dude is favored. I don't know much about him, and all I know about Clay Hensley is that he is a converted reliever, with a decent skill set, and above-average velocity. The Pirates (47-54) have won only two of the last 14 meetings with the Padres (38-64), dating to August 2005, but they are coming off a sweep of Houston. SD is reeling on the other hand..."San Diego lost 9-5 at Cincinnati on Wednesday to fall to 1-6 during its season-high 11-game road trip. Its bullpen has an 8.69 ERA over the last seven games, and ranks last in the NL with a 4.53 ERA on the season." No telling who wins this one, but I bet more than 10.5 runs are scored in that Band box. Not confident.

Flo/Chc - I like the Cubs to win tonight, and I don't even need research. Everything points to a Cubs breakout (esp. after 10! runs last night and getting Soriano back), and they need to be big coming back home to stay even with the Brewers. But get this, the Marlins have won 10 in a row against the Cubs! Still, the Cubs are an NL-best 37-12 at Wrigley (marlins won 4 straight there though). Zambrano though, walked 6 in his last start (season-high), but still is 3-1 in 7 starts against Florida (2.54 era). Olson has been getting plenty of run support but Uggla is 1 for his last 22, and Hanley is 2 for his last 21. Not only do I like Zambrano to dominate, I'm taking the Runline, Cubs -1.5 -105.

Mil/Stl - Brewers are 13-6 in Sheets starts this season, and Milwaukee hasn't lost since the break. Wellemeyer on the other hand, has lostin 5 of his last 6 starts with a 7.72 era in that span. ESPN doesn't like him either - "but he's not the same pitcher he was before missing time because of elbow trouble. The Cardinals right-hander has allowed 18 earned runs in 22 innings during July and is not a good bet going forward." Roll with the Brewcrew at a great price of -135.

PICK WINNERS, MAKE MONEY.

Tuesdays picks 5-3 (2-0 on strong endorsements)
Yesterday's picks 3-0-1 (1-0 on strong endorsements)

pj20