Guest Contributor - Friday July 25, 2008

This is my buddy K7, The Wizard. He knows his shit...

Cleveland -1.5 on the run line at +105... I never like to do this but I don't want to lay -220 (it's just against what I do) but I'm also confident in Cliff Lee. Lee is 5-1 in his last six decisions and has allowed just two runs in his past fifteen innings of work including a complete game. ESPN says "Twins hitters have batted a combined .181 with three homers and a .529 OPS in 155 at-bats lifetime against the Indians' Cliff Lee. He should continue his phenomenal season against one of the league's worst offenses versus left-handers (.705 team OPS)." Lee is also a sparkling 5-0 at home with a 1.62 ERA. All of that is on Cleveland's side and then you see Livan Hernandez's numbers. Well they make you cringe... 2-5 on the road with an ERA of 7.48 and an ERA against Cleveland of 10.00 this season. I love Cleveland here...

Over 10.5 runs in the Detroit Chicago game... Both sides of this game scream runs, runs, runs. ESPN says "Load up on White Sox hitters against the Tigers' Nate Robertson, seeing that as a team, they have batted .304 with 16 homers and a .933 OPS lifetime against the left-hander. Even lefty-hitting Jim Thome has gotten into the act, batting .471 (8-for-17) with two doubles and two homers against Robertson. Jermaine Dye is a .371 career hitter (13-for-35) with five homers against the southpaw." Roberson has an ERA of 6.35 in two starts this year against Chicago and an ERA of 7.66 in July. He's allowed 12 earned runs in his last 9 1/3 innings worked. ESPN then later adds this bit of information cautioning against Gavin Floyd looking for trouble "in Detroit, seeing as he's 3-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in eight road starts. Not to mention that in his past seven starts, he has a 4.35 ERA and has allowed nine home runs. These Tigers can hit."

Boston over New York -135... Josh Beckett is on the hump for the Red Sox and he's 3-0 this year against their rivals from New York. His numbers in July (5.68 ERA) worry me, but then you look and see that he's 2-1 in the month. Whatever it is, the Red Sox seem to win when he pitches. He's coming off a somewhat shaky last three starts that have seen his ERA rise from 3.65 to 3.98 but he's won two of those starts. David Ortiz is back in the middle of the Red Sox order as they return to Fenway where they're a league best 25 games over .500. The Yankees have been hot but they're just a .500 team on the road and have struggled in Boston. ESPN adds "Josh Beckett is a must-start even against the Yankees, as he has won all three of his appearances against them this season, each of them a quality start. The challenge, then, is whether his opponent, Joba Chamberlain, is a worthwhile option for fantasy. I say yes, noting that he went six strong innings and allowed three runs against these Red Sox on July 6. Still, Chamberlain's win potential is a bit less, so keep it in mind"

DBacks over Giants -135... Danny Haren only gets better as the heat of summer kicks in as he is a career 12-5 in the month of July. "The Giants might have defeated the Diamondbacks and Dan Haren on May 27, but since that turn, the right-hander is 4-1 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in nine starts." He's among the hottest pitchers in baseball, so count on another masterpiece. Talk about hot, the guy has a 1.23 ERA in July. The Giants are coming off a sweep of the Nationals at home and they're one of the worst road teams in baseball. I look for Haren to bring them back to earth. ESPN adds "It's a shame for Jonathan Sanchez that he has to face Haren; he has a slim chance at a win as a result. Diamondbacks hitters have batted .363 with a .960 OPS in 80 career at-bats combined against Sanchez, although, to be fair, he has held his own against them in two meetings this season, with a 1-0 record, 4.09 ERA and 1.55 WHIP."

pj20 picks to come...