More Baseball picks - Friday July 25, 2008

Red - strong endorsement, Bold Underline - good bet.

Atl/Phi - The Phillies are already 8-1 vs the Braves this season, and they might be without Chipper. That, coupled with the fact they are playing in their home ballpark is the reason they are favorites. The fact they have fallen out of first place (which they held at the ASB) should give them a little extra motivation. The case for the Braves is their starter, Jair Jurrjens, who is 9-5 on the year, but has a 2.70 era and 1.05 whip in his past 5 starts. Kyle Kendrick on the other hand, is 2-1 in his last 5, but only has 14 k's in 30 innings with a 1.47 whip (coming off a 4.1 ip, 7 er loss to the marlins). Looking a little closer, "In the right-hander's (jurrjens) lone start against the Phillies on July 3, Jurrjens allowed four runs and eight hits in seven innings of a 4-1 loss.".....and "Kendrick is 3-0 with a 4.13 ERA in five career starts against the Braves, including 2-0 with a 4.15 ERA in three starts this season." At that price, with no Chipper possibly,I'm going with the Phillies -125 to bust out and try to get their lead back.

Stl/NYM - Pelfrey has won his last 4 decisions and has been noticably better at home during his recent hot streak. The Cardinals are having bullpen WOES (franklin, Izzy both struggling of late), with Franklin giving up 5 HR in his last 11 ip. If you want to put action on this game, I like Pelfrey and the Mets at -185, but that is a steep price. Bet with caution, and consider the runline. Also, the Cardinals starter Boggs is 3-1 in his last five starts, despite having a 6.75 era, and 1.72 whip in that span.

SD/Pit - don't touch this game. Zach Duke has been horrid lately, but the Pirates are hot. No telling which way this goes.

Col/Cin - Another tough game, but this one actually feature 2 good pitchers. Cook and Volquez have been 2 of the biggest/best surprises in the NL this year, and both have stats warranting support. Edinson, however, in his last 5 starts has only had a 5.20 era, despite only losing 1 decision. Another thing worth pointing out is that the Rockies are 11-24 in current situations (away, night games on grass). I'm staying away since the total I think is pretty accurate (8.5) for those offenses.

Hou/Mil - The Brewers are on an absolute roll, having not lost since the all-star break. Wandy, being the homer he is (get it, he's good at home), has been actually pretty good of late (3-0 past 5 starts). Manny Parra though, has been on another level. Brewers at home, and with Manny going 2-0 with a 1.61, 1.07 in his past 5, I'd find a way to bet the Brewers. Since Houston has lost 4 in a row (including being swept by the lowly pirates at home), and the Brewers have won 7 in a row, no reason to fade right now. I'd feel safe taking the runline -1.5 at +125.

SF/Ari - I competely agree with K7's research of this game (see below), so I'm finding a way to get on the Haren train. The under is set for a pitchers duel (7.0), and I'm pretty sure we see one with the Giants gaining confidence, and power-lefty Sanchez on the hill. Plus, the D-backs have the worst road OPS in the NL. Take Danny Haren -135, and/or the Under of 7.0.

LAD/Was - 2 pitchers on a roll, but the price on Billingsley is too high (-200). Consider Lannan +180 for a deeeep sleeper, as he is the best value pick of the day. Only if you feel like gambling though.

LAA/Bal - I havn't figure Saunders or the Orioles out. Maybe K7 can tackle this one.

CHW/Det - I like the over bet of 10.5, but I also like the Tigers -125. The White Sox are a good team though, so no matter how hot Detroit has been, the Sox offense can explode at any time. I say don't start either pitcher in fantasy, and hope for a slugfest. Over 10.5, I agree.

TB/KC - Today's starters have combined to give up 10! homers in their last five starts. So whose been worse? It would have to be Bannister and his 7.86 era over the past 5. Edwin has only struck out 12 batters in his last 31.2 ip, but had an 8 inning, 1 er win @ the Royals 2 starts ago. The Rays have lost 8 straight road games, but should be able to take advantage of Bannister..."Bannister allowed six earned runs and eight hits in five innings of an 11-2 loss at Tampa Bay on July 4." Take the better team, and the better (at least for upside) pitcher. Rays -120 is the bet.

PICK WINNERS, MAKE MONEY.

Wednesday's Results - 3-0-1 (1-0 on strong endorsements)
Yesterday's Results - 5-0 (no strong endorsements)

Overall - 7-0 past 7 strong endorsements

pj20