Quick picks for Saturday July 26, 2008

Red - Strong Endorsement, Bold Underline - Good Bet

Tor/Sea - The Blue Jays are averaging 5.6 runs over their last 14 games. Since July 8 only two teams have scored more runs. But the main thing that concerns me here is that both bullpens are pretty overworked. Morrow and Putz have both thrown multiple innings in the past few days. Neither starter can really be trusted, especially with a knuckleballer indoors. As for the Seattle starter…”The 6-foot-5 left-hander fared poorly in two emergency starts earlier this season. He walked seven while lasting 4 1-3 innings on April 18, then gave up eight runs over three innings in a 10-3 loss at Philadelphia on May 16.” It’s probably too late to bet it, but I liked the Over of 9.5.

Bos/NYY – This is a classic match up where the game could obviously go either way. The Yankees just acquired Xavier Nady and Marte via trade, and they might not be able to play immediately. ESPN daily notes breaks down the starting pitching match up as well as you can…”Andy Pettitte was tagged for five runs in 4 2/3 innings on July 3 against the Red Sox, and although he has pitched well since then, the lefty has a poor record against Boston. The Red Sox lineup is a combined 100-for-270 against Pettitte, for a .370 average and the team OPS is .966. Of all the current Red Sox who have faced Pettitte, only the injured Julio Lugo and the sparsely used Alex Cora don't have a .300 batting average or better against the veteran lefty. … Tim Wakefield has pitched into the seventh in 10 straight starts, allowing two runs or fewer in seven of them, and not allowing any more than four runs in the others. That is a model of consistency. Over many years, Wakefield has kept the Yankees' tough lineup in check. New York's lineup has combined for more than 500 at-bats versus the knuckleball and has an average of just .247. Can you guess who I think wins the Pettitte versus Wakefield match up? They battled all the way to a 1-0 game yesterday, and you would have to figure this game will play just as close. I’ll take the home team, and the defending champion Red Sox -115.

Det/CHW – Wow, Detroit lost a heart breaker last night in the ninth, and they send their ace to the mound today. Plus, “White Sox starter John Danks (7-4, 3.03) looks to bounce back from one of his worst outings of the season. The right-hander lasted only four innings against Kansas City on Sunday, allowing six runs and nine hits in a game Chicago eventually lost 8-7.” Verlander has been absolutely on fire lately, holding opponents to a .183 batting average over the last eight games. Both teams have plenty of offense, but I trust Verlander to keep the Sox at bay, while the same can’t be said for Danks. Detroit -155. Consider the over of 8.5.

KC/TB - ”Kazmir allowed a season-low two hits in seven innings of the Rays' 4-0 victory over Oakland on Monday for his first win since June 27. "It feels great. I feel like it's long overdue," said Kazmir (8-5, 2.80 ERA) after his first start since the All-Star break. "This is certainly something to build on."” The Rays finally broke the snide yesterday, where yours truly recommended them as a strong pick, and I look for them to build off that vs. Hochevar, who “tries to bounce back after getting roughed up for the third time in four games when he allowed seven runs and eight hits in five innings of a 19-4 loss to Detroit on Monday.” The Rays win this game, and I like Kazmir -170, and I'm considering the Runline.

Thursday's picks 5-0
Friday's picks 4-4 (2-0 on strong endorsements)

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