Week 1 Recap

Finished week 1 with a sparkling 11-4 record and +690 units. The breakdown:

3-0 on Under (first 5 innings) bets = +300 units

5-2 Moneyline bets on favorites = +255 units

1-0 Moneyline bets on underdogs = +145 units

1-0 on Over bets = +100 units

1-1 on Under bets = -10 units

0-1 on Runline bets = -100 units

The lesson:

Under (first 5 innings) bets - These are one of my favorite types of bets, because when I gamble on baseball, the obvious focus for me (as a former starting pitcher) is starting pitching. Taking the bet out of the bullpen's hands is the best way to assure that your research will mainly be applied to those SP's. All 3 games I won this way this week, would have been in danger of losing, if I had played the total for the entire game.

Runline betting - Even though this was the only betting style I was "losing" on this week, this is a very smart way to bet sometimes. It allows you to get good value on extremely good pitching matchups. I advise using the runline betting when you have an SP that is a -180 favorite or better, and you like the offense that supports that pitcher. The logic is, you expect the SP to shut down the offense, and you have the same confidence that they will win the game by 2, instead of squeaking out a 1 run win. Taking the odds from -180 to say +115 in this scenario makes perfect sense. Expect to see alot more of these types of bets in the upcoming weeks.

Underdog betting - This is by far my favorite way to bet, and pretty soon, I will unleash the updated CUTTY© Underdog Program™. Stay tuned...

Picks for Saturday, April 10, 2010

Josh Beckett -120 @ Zach Greinke +100, 7.5

I love it when two bona-fide aces get pitted against each other. Beckett is fresh off of a schlaaaping by the Yankees on opening day, but he also got PAID since his last start. He's a big-game pitcher, and I expect him to be sharp against the lowly-Royals, Billy Butler be damned. Zach Greinke on the other hand, is fresh off of a CY Young, and sports a 0.61 ERA against Boston since 2007. Yeah, he's also a big-game pitcher.

Pick: Under 4.5 in first five innings

Derrek Lowe -120 @ Todd Wellemeyer +100, 9

You can make a case for or against Lowe if you hard enough at his stats. First of all, he's never started a season by winning his first 2 starts. He won his first start, but it was not pretty (5 runs, 2 HR). However, he is 4-0, with a 1.96 ERA at AT&T Park, and the Braves will expect him to go deep in the game after both teams pretty much emptied their bullpens and benches yesterday. Wellemeyer lead the team in IP in Cactus league, posting a 2.70 ERA. The Giants as a team have won 8 of the last 9 vs. Atlanta in San Francisco, and this should be a well played, well pitched game. Hayward is 1-12 since his opening day HR, including 4 K's yesterday, and Chipper should be out again. Don't look for alot of offense, especially in the early innings.

Pick: Under 5.0 in first five innings -115

Friday Results

What a game for the Giants!!!!!!!! Renteria!!! So fucking exciting. Check out the recap at TheDodgerHaterblog http://dodgerhater.blogspot.com/2010/04/special-win-for-special-team.html.

Anyway, 3-0 day, +300 units. Always sucks when I have to root for the Dodgers, but I like winning bets way more.

Bo-Rat & Too-$hort in Fairfax tonight, so I might not be up in time for picks tomorrow. CY TIMMY on the mound on Sunday, along with Johan, so I'm going to try and get some good value picks in for that day.

Have a great weekend everyone!

+490 on the year, I'll take it.

Picks for Friday, April 9, 2010

Full slate of games today, including the Giant's Home Opener!! Jonathan San-chize is on the mound, facing Tim Hudson. Let the first weekend series' of the year begin!!

Rapid fire with a few quick picks, since it's Friday and I have a busy day at work....

Hudson -110 @ Sanchez -110, 8

Gyros starting 3-0 thanks to strong pitching, but also the hitting has come on as well. The Braves have a +12 run differential through 3 games, but they just traveled 3,000 miles across the country to come to one of the premier home-field advantages in all of baseball. Also, Larry "Chipper" Jones should be sitting this one out.

Pick: Giants -110

Hiroki Kiroda -125 @ Chris Volstad, 8.5

I know stats from last year and spring training aren't the best tools this early in the season. However, it is worth noting that down the stretch last year, Kiroda was 3-2 with a 2.79 era in his last 5 starts of 2009, while Volstad finished 2009 by losing 4 consectutive starts with an era over 12. Volstad also served up 29 HR last year. Kiroda was sharp this spring, while Vostad...not as much.

Pick: Dodgers -125

Pick: Over 8.5

Additional picks for 4/8/10

Randy Wells +165 @ Tommy Hanson -195, 8

The Braves have already lit up the Cubbies for 19 runs in 2 games (mostly thanks to Big Z, haha), and their offense is looking very potent. The Cubs have only mangaed 7 runs in those same 2 games, but their offense also has some firepower in it that has yet to show up. Atlanta's park has been a hitter's park for the past few seasons, and couple that with the fact that both bullpens have already logged more than a few innings, I can see the ball flying around the yard today. However, I am totally buying into the emergence of Tommy Hanson as a major league Ace. Basically he was unhittable last year when facing a team other than the Phillies or Milwaukee. And as a bonus stat, Randy Wells had a 2.08 era in 2 starts vs. the Braves last year. I don't think today is the day the Cubs break out of their slump, and if Wells can just contain the Braves offense, we could be looking at a lower scoring game than expected.

Pick: Under 4 in first 5 innings -110

Kevin Slowey +115 @ Joel Pineiro -135, 9.5

This will be Slowey's first start since his season was cut down prematurely last year by wrist surgery. He has always been a pitcher who relies on his command rather than his overpowering stuff. The way that the Angels have come out of the gate firing on cilinders makes me very weary of his getting back into the groove this early in the season. I've always felt that Pineiro was one of the more underrated pitchers in the NL when he was with St. Louis. Consider this more of a backing of Anaheim's offense though.

Pick: Angels -135

Royals-Tigers game

Well, Brian Bannister delivered on what I thought he was going to do, posting a nice line of 6 IP, 6 hits, 0 bb & only 1 ER (a Mag-pipes solo job). The thing that surprised me, however was that Dontrelle seemed to carry over some of that swagger from a good spring. While a 6 IP, 2 ER, 1.50 whip is not outstanding, I'm sure Tigers fans were thrilled to see it.

Through 7 innings, the Royals were holding onto a 2-1 lead, before they showed us exactly who they were..... the Kansas City Royals. Serves me right I guess.

While they can't all be winners, remind me to never say anything nice about Luis Mendoza. 5 ER in 1.2 IP?? Unbelievable.

I should have 1 more pick up before the day is done, hopefully I can get back to the winning ways.

Early pick for 4/8/10

Went 1-1 on Wednesday, but still netted a +35 day due to a big underdog win by Fausto and the Indians. Ricky-No pitched like I thought he would, but the bullpen gave up 4 runs, and this game eventually went into extras. The under never really had a chance though, as John Maine didn't pitch the way I had hoped he would. A couple HR by Hanley and Cantu, and the under was pretty much gone. Oh well, still made $!

For Thursday, there are 11 games, 6 of which qualify as "day" games. Before going to bed, my research gave me one pick that I want to mention now before I don't have time to post it tomorrow....

Dontrelle Willis -110 @ Brian Bannister -110

Despite Dontrelle having a pretty solid spring (2-0, 3.30 era), he has not had an ERA under 5 since 2006. His opponent, Bannister, has some very intriguing split stats that stood out to me. Brian Bannister is over an entire run better in ERA at home for his career, and is also almost a run better during day games. He had an ERA of 0.69 last April, so quick starts are in his past. Also, in over 38 IP in his career against Detroit, he is 4-2 with a 2.09 ERA. Dontrelle has never faced the Royals. I'm taking the home team, and playing the statistics on this one.

Pick: Royals -110

Yesterday's results: 1-1 (+35 units)

Year-to-date: 5-2 (+335 units)

Picks for Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Broke even yesterday with a 1-1 day. Chris R. Young looked sharp and in 2007 form, while Edwin didn't have the debut I expected. The Rays-O's game did go the way I expected though, and despite the 2 runs in the ninth, the game still went under the total.

Full slate of games today...

Ricky Nolasco -125 @ John Maine +105, 8.5

If you followed Spring Training at all, you know exactly how dominant Ricky-No was. His K:BB ratio was off the charts, and he basically continued his success from the second half of 2009. Many people might have soured on him after a breakout 2008 due to his horrible first half of '09, but he seems to have regained his focus. John Maine is one of the most underrated pitchers in the NL, and while he might not be the dominant-type, he is capable of putting up a quality start, especially against a RH-heavy Marlins lineup. Citi-field was a pitchers park last year, and despite the fences being moved in, I don't see a ton of runs being scored today.

Pick: Under 8.5

Fausto Carmona +145 @ Jake Peavy -170, 8

Another guy who was brilliant in spring training (I know, I know spring stats don't matter! shhh don't tell us Giant's fans) was Fausto Carmona. In 2008, he was one of the best pitchers in the American League, using his mid-90's sinker to overpower people. Last year, saying he struggled would be an understatement. But I know talent when I see it, and Fausto has all of the makings to be a successful pitcher. Peavy on the other hand, also had a decent spring, but the price on this matchup is saying that we will see the Petco-Peavy of old. I need to see that in consecutive starts before I lay -170 on him. Take the value before people realize Fausto is back!

Pick: Indians +145

Yesterday's results: 1-1 (even)

Monday's results: 3-0 (+300 units)

Picks for Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Only 7 games on tap today, but there is some value if you look hard enough!

Chris R. Young +135 @ Edwin Jackson -160, 9

We all know the Padres suck, ahem I mean rebuilding, but I think the consensus on the D'backs is a little unclear. Some people call them a year away, so people think they can contend now. One common thing I've read though, is that people are leaning towards "fluke" when it comes to Edwin Jackson's year with Detroit. I think it's just the opposite. I read it as "BREAKOUT". The D'backs lineup is full of young guns, but they have enough firepower to be a scary, scary team when BWebb comes back. Edwin proves all of the doubters wrong today. I even feel great giving up a run.

Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5 runs +140

Kevin Millwood +200 @ James Shields -250, 8.5

Neither of these pitchers is unfamiliar with opening days, but neither is really associated with them either. That being said, both of these pitchers are going into the season considered their team's "ace". If you look at the splits, Shields has always been a much better pitcher at home than on the road. Millwood is just a veteran pitcher who I expect to keep the young Orioles team in the game as he makes his debut with them. I love the Rays and their offense this year, but I'm going with a gut-feeling pick here.

Pick: Under 9

Monday Results

What an amazing day of baseball yesterday!!!!

CY TIMMYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oh yeah, and I went 3-0 with the picks, and also said I liked the over in the Atlanta game. Speaking of the Atlanta game, as I predicted Zambrano did get LIT and the Braves offense came to play. Jayson Hayward HR in his first MLB at-bat, are you kidding me?!?!

Great first win for the Gigantes, behind an absolute gem from the Ace.

Johan, Halladay, Haren, Ubaldo, Felix all also looking amazing. Like I said yesterday, ACE DAY!!

Only 7 games on the schedule today, so I'll be back with a pick or two later.

Best Opening Day picks - 4/5/10

With 13 games on the schedule, this is the first day since October that actually feels like baseball season!! And like always, with Opening Day comes Aces full.... on to the picks!!

Carlos Zambrano +110 @ Derrek Lowe -130, 8.5

Big Z is coming off of a very forgettable year, but as always the expectations are high in Chicago. The problem is, after a few years off since there impressive run, expectations are finally high in Atlanta as well. Call this a lack-of-faith bet in Z, or a sign of trust in Atlanta, but the Braves are a great play in this opener. The over would also not be a bad play.

Pick: Braves -130

Felix Hernandez -155 @ Ben Sheets +135, 7

2009 was the year that King Felix finally put a full season together. 2009 was also a season that Ben Sheets did not pitch in. After watching both get ready this spring, only one of these pitchers impressed me, and it wasn't the guy who didn't pitch last year (but somehow got $8 million). I think that Seattle is an under the radar team this year, and I especially like them with their ace on the mound. While not an amazing price, I think it's well worth the chalk.

Pick: Mariners -155

Tim Lincecum -135 @ Roy Oswalt +115, 7

If you have ever seen Lincecum pitch, you know just how dominant he can be. Too much was made of a cut on his middle finger right at the end of the spring training, and not enough was made of Oswalt's balky back. The Giants offense is much-improved, while the Astros have even appeared to take a step backwards (if that's possible) with Berkman on the shelf. CY Timmy makes the first step towards CY #3 tonight.

Pick: Giants -135

2010 MLB Season is here!!!!

Time to bring the blog back, after a looooong hiatus. Trust me though, it has nothing to do with me having too much time on my hands. In fact, I doubt I've ever had so much going simultaneously in my entire life. But, it's arguably the best time of the entire year for sports, fantasy sports and therefore gambling. Let's take a look at some of the things I'm excited about this week....

• Baseball Opening Day today!!!! Go LinCYcum!!
  
  
• NCAA title game tonight - I already won my pool though, don't worry. Go Duke.
  
  
• Fantasy Basketball Championship matchup - feels good.
  
  
• Masters this weekend & Tiger press conference today. Always entertaining.

MLB, NBA, NHL, NCAA, Golf all running simultaneously?? No wonder I'm overwhelmed...

SORRY ALL!! Be back soon....

Thank you everyone for reading my blog. Sorry that it hasn't been updated very frequently recently. I have a lot of other things going on currently, including getting ready for all of my fantasy football leagues, and trying to stay competitive in all of my fantasy baseball leagues. It doesn't help when you have migraines every day for 2 weeks either.

Anyway, once I conclude all of my fantasy drafts, that should give me considerably more time to blog, and football season will be here!! I'll get back on the horse then (sometime next week), and we'll all finish the season strong and and make money.

I might be posting some fantasy football stuff too. I just got information flowing out of my ears right now, and I need someone to share it with.


Anyone want to contribute, give me a holler petejohnson20@gmail.com.

pj20

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

So after a 0-3 day yesterday with the blog picks (2-4 in real life), I decided to take a day off from making some blog picks. I wanted to discuss something that me and K7 have been talking about for a few weeks now. THE RUN LINE.

Here is a quick definition...

RUN LINES

The run line involves a team getting 1 1/2 runs (the underdog) while the favorite must lay 1 1/2 runs. A money line is also with to the 1 1/2 runs For a favorite to win on the run line, the team must then win by 2 runs.

The odds on a favorite will usually be a plus number because the team must win by at least 2 runs. The money line attached to the team getting 1 1/2 runs will usually be a minus number because the team can still lose by one run and still be a winning bet.

The same rules that apply for totals apply for run lines: listed pitchers must start, and the game can not be called early.

Here is and example of a Run Line Yankees - 1 1/2 +120 Devil Rays + 1 1/2 - 140 If you bet the Yankees would win by 2 runs or more you would win $1.20 for every $1.00 bet If you bet that the Devil Rays would win or they can lose by less than two runs you will have to risk $1.40 for every $1.00 you want to win.

(taken from http://www.docsports.com/betting-baseball.html)


The reason I bring this up is because of the unusual amount of HEAVY favorites today. Let's look at some games on today's card.

Philadelphia -240 vs. Washington
St. Louis -205 vs. Pittsburgh
Boston -175 @ Baltimore
Minnestoa -235 vs. Oakland
Chicago Cubs -330 vs. Cincinnati

Now, I think it is safe to say, that in a vaccuum with straight odds, we would all pick the heavy favorites to win their games. The Cubs, Cardinals, Twins, and Phillies are all playing inferior teams at home. They SHOULD win. But with the prices attached, there is no reason to take that risk. A 2-1 day could potentially lose you money. This is where betting the Run Line can be adventagous. Let's look at the same games, but with Run Line odds listed instead.

Philadelphia -115 vs. Washington
St. Louis -110 vs. Pittsburgh
Boston -125 @ Baltimore
Minnesota -115 vs. Oakland
Chicago Cubs -145 vs. Cincinnati

Needless to say, those lines are MUCH more appealing and represent much better value. If you think these teams are going to win (the oddsmakers certainly do), they why not take the chance that they could win by 2?

This is a very interesting debate, and I would love to have some feedback on it.

PLEASE USE THE COMMENTS TO GIVE SOME FEEDBACK. HOW DO WE FEEL ABOUT BETTING RUN LINES? SUCKER BET, OR GREAT VALUE??

holla, pj20

Monday 8/18, Athletics +135 @ Twins -150, 8.0

MIN - No team in baseball has been better than Minnesota over the past two months, and it's been even longer since the Twins lost a series at the Metrodome. The Twins are 36-17 in the past two months -- a record that's all the more impressive considering they are 11-11 on the road in that span. Minnesota has gone 25-6 in its last 31 games at the Metrodome to climb to the top of the division -- a surge due in large part to a prolific offense. The Twins have averaged 6.2 runs in those 31 home games, a number they pushed up during a three-game sweep of Seattle over the weekend. Minnesota scored 27 runs in the series, capped by an 11-8 win Sunday. The A's will try to get their offense going Monday against Nick Blackburn (9-6, 3.73 ERA). The rookie right-hander has looked excellent in stretches this season, but struggled in his latest start. He gave up four runs in 4 2-3 innings of a 9-6, 12-inning loss to New York on Tuesday. They picked up a rare win Friday by beating Chicago 6-4, but totaled two runs in the series' final two games, capped by a 13-1 loss Sunday. Blackburn has never faced the A's.

OAK - All-Star Justin Duchscherer (10-8, 2.59) will oppose Blackburn. Duchscherer hasn't pitched well recently, going 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA in his last four starts, but was better in his last outing. He gave up three runs over 6 1-3 innings in a 3-2 loss to Tampa Bay on Wednesday. Oakland took two of three at home against the Twins from April 22-24. The A's are the only team in baseball with an OBP below .300 (the Mendoza Line equivalent of on-base percentage) since the All-Star break. After averaging nearly seven innings over his first 17 starts, Justin Duchscherer is averaging just more than 5 2/3 innings in his past four starts. With a near nonexistent offense backing him, Duchscherer doesn't have much margin for error, and with his luck beginning to balance out, he's no longer a fantasy ace. The A's score slightly less than four runs per game, but they've averaged 2.8 since the All-Star break in going 5-23.

PICK - TWINS -150

Monday 8/18: Angels -105 @ Rays -110, 9.5

ANA - The Angels (76-46) have firsthand experience playing in TB, getting swept in St. Petersburg May 9-11. They were shut out 2-0 in each of the first two games before losing 8-5 in the finale. On Monday, they'll try to ride Jon Garland (11-7, 4.26 ERA). The right-hander has won three of his last four starts despite a 4.97 ERA over that span. He was outstanding at Tropicana Field on May 9, pitching eight shutout innings before reliever Justin Speier gave up a walk-off home run to Evan Longoria in Tampa Bay's 2-0 win. Garland has never lost in St. Petersburg, going 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA in six career starts. The Angels took two of three from the Rays in Anaheim from June 9-11, but would still need to sweep this set to avoid losing the season series for only the second time. They are 65-36 all-time against the Rays.

TB - Tropicana Field has presented a different kind of problem all season for opponents, as the Rays (75-48) have won six of their last seven there to move to 45-17 at home -- tied for the best home record in baseball. The Rays have been playing well everywhere, as they return to Florida after going 7-3 on a 10-game road trip, capped with Sunday's 7-4 win over Texas. Thanks to Boston's 15-4 loss to Toronto earlier in the day, they opened a 4 1/2-game lead on the Red Sox atop the AL East. Garland will be opposed by Andy Sonnanstine (12-6, 4.35). The Rays' leader in victories has been sharp this month, going 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA in three August starts. The right-hander has struggled against Los Angeles, however, going 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in two career starts. He gave up five runs in five innings but did not receive a decision in Tampa Bay's 8-5 win on May 11.
Garland is pitching well enough, and the Angels are better team here, even on the road. The Rays have played admirably since Crawford and Longoria went down, but Sonnastine comes back to earth today, let's take the Angels as an underdog -105.

Monday 8/18: Red Sox -125 @ Orioles +110, 8.5

BOS - The Orioles' offense has the highest slugging percentage in the majors (by 15 points) since the All-Star break, and its .364 on-base percentage ranks second. The word "juggernaut" wouldn't normally be an adjective to describe the Orioles' offensive exploits -- their OPS ranked a respectable 12th before the All-Star break -- but until the bats cool down, protect your starters against them, Jon Lester included. … Lester, who is 8-1 with a 2.87 ERA over his last 12 starts, limited hard-hitting Texas to three runs and seven hits while fanning six over 7 1-3 innings in an 8-4 home victory on Wednesday. Lester is 4-0 with a 3.25 ERA in six career outing versus the Orioles, and held them to two runs and seven hits over seven innings against Guthrie in June. Boston is 7-5 versus Baltimore in 2008, taking two of three at Fenway Park from July 11-13.

BAL - Guthrie, who is 1-1 with a 3.58 ERA in seven career games versus the Red Sox, was reached for five runs and seven hits while walking a season-high five over 4 2-3 innings in a 9-2 loss at Boston on June 12. But the right-hander has since gone 7-1 with a 2.51 ERA in 11 outings for the Orioles (60-63), and has posted an impressive 1.23 ERA in winning a career-high four consecutive starts. He was dominant again Wednesday, holding Cleveland to one run and four hits in seven innings of a 6-1 road victory. Guthrie has allowed one earned run in each of his past four starts, and since June, nine of his 14 starts have resulted in exactly one earned run allowed, including a shutdown of the mighty Rangers offense two starts ago. With Guthrie pitching that well, you can feel comfortable starting him until he proves otherwise, even against the Red Sox (.801 team OPS, third in the majors). … "I haven't been a part of or seen a team swinging the bats as well as we are right now," right fielder Nick Markakis told the Orioles' official Web site. Markakis, who went 3-for-5 with an RBI on Sunday, is batting .313 (5-for-16) versus Boston's scheduled starter Jon Lester (11-4, 3.25).
The Sox have lost 2 in a row, and things don't get easier here. I think for value, the Orioles at +110 is a great value pick. I'll back Guthrie and the O's offense at home.

PICK - ORIOLES +110

Friday, August 15, 2008

Hey, sorry all, no picks/posts today. I fell asleep last night before I could any research, and that can never be a good thing for betting. Therefore, instead of giving you picks with half-assed research, I'll give you picks with NO research! Basically, I'm just saying who I'm betting on today. Been muuuch better the last 2 days (7-2 on wednesday!).

8/15/08
PHI -140 - Moyer is a road warrior
LAD -145 - Parra much better at home, LAD HOT
LAA +125 - ridiculous price for MLB's best team
TB -110 - No Josh Hamilton for Texas, Rays are the better team
CHW -130 - ALWAYS bet against the A's.

I might not have any picks for this weekend either, I'll see if K7 wants to contribute, or I might have an article or 2 on my underdog program.

Good luck All!!

Thursday - Boston -295 @ Texas +250, 10.5

BOS - The Red Sox have averaged more than nine runs over the course of their seven-game winning streak against the Rangers, which dates back to July 2007. Matsuzaka (13-2, 2.90) is coming off his longest outing of the season, as he gave up four hits and a run in eight innings of a 6-2 win over the Chicago White Sox on Saturday. Opposing hitters are batting just .206 against Daisuke Matsuzaka, meanwhile, and the right-hander has been particularly good lately. He's 5-1 with a 2.17 ERA in his last eight starts, allowing two or fewer runs in seven of those outings. Matsuzaka has been far from great against Texas, but he's beaten them the only two times he has faced them. In 10 1-3 innings in the two starts, he allowed eight runs and 12 hits, but the Red Sox have scored in double digits in both games. The Red Sox have won nine of 12 overall and are seeking their first four-game winning streak since a seven-game run from May 17-22. They've also won five straight at Fenway Park to improve to 42-16 there.

TEX - Tommy Hunter (0-1, 10.61 ERA) doesn't seem like the best candidate to reverse the trend, as the right-hander makes his third major league start Thursday after struggling in the first two. Both teams are likely to be missing some offense Thursday. Boston placed third baseman Mike Lowell on the 15-day disabled list with a strained oblique muscle, while Texas' Josh Hamilton left Wednesday's game and headed home to his wife, who gave birth to the couple's third child.

Over is 7-2 in TEX last 9 road games.
Over is 13-6-1 in TEX last 20 overall.

PICK – OVER 10.5

pj20

Thursday - Chicago -150@ Atlanta +135, 9.5

CHC - Chicago, which has won 13 of 16 overall, is outscoring its opponents 59-19 during its road winning streak. The Cubs last won seven straight on the road June 12-22, 2004, and have not won eight consecutive away from Wrigley since reeling off 12 straight from July 1-Aug. 3, 1945. Chicago's Ted Lilly (11-6, 4.26 ERA) takes the ball Thursday, and he has been at his best away from Wrigley lately, going 3-1 with a 2.53 ERA in his last seven road starts. Lilly has just one loss in his last 12 starts, and is 2-0 with a 2.76 ERA in five outings since the All-Star break. On Friday, the left-hander allowed two runs and seven hits in 7 1-3 innings of a 3-2, 11-inning win over St. Louis. In his only start against the Braves this season on June 10, Lilly allowed three runs and four hits with eight strikeouts in 6 2-3 innings to earn a 10-5 win.

ATL - The Braves (55-65), meanwhile, have lost nine of their last 11 at Turner Field, and have scored just three runs in losing their last three games overall. Glavine has been throwing for the past month, and has not had any further discomfort. In two minor league rehab starts, the 42-year-old left-hander allowed four runs and seven hits in nine innings. The two-time NL Cy Young Award winner is 15-14 with a 3.72 ERA in 36 career starts against the Cubs, but is 1-3 with a 6.08 ERA in five starts versus them since 2006.
The Braves are 3-9 in Glavine's starts this season, and the 10-time All-Star has not won since May 20.

CHC are 13-3 in their last 16 overall.
Over is 8-0 in CHC last 8 road games.
Over is 10-3 in ATL last 13 home games.
Over is 15-10 in Lilly’s starts this year.
Under is 14-7 in games Bucknor is behind the plate (7.96 rpg).

PICK - CHICAGO CUBS RUNLINE +110, and OVER 9.5

pj20