MLB picks for Monday, April 19, 2010

Matt Cain -140 @ Clayton Richard +120, 7

Heartbreaking loss for Giants fans yesterday in LA. A Manny Rameriz pinch hit HR took the wind out of the Gyros sails, and cost them a series against their rivals. Matt Cain has yet to record a win so far this year, but he has looked decent, posting a lower WHIP than his ERA might suggest. Petco Park has always been a great place for Cain to pitch, and I expect him to go deep in the game, and keep the Padres in check. This price is not ideal, as the Giants have been playing much better than the Pads so far. That being said, I think Cain gets the elusive first win tonight, and I'm not scared enough of the pricetag. Take the Hurri-©AIN with confidence.

Pick: Giants -115

Randy Wells -120 @ J Niese +100, 8.5

Did you see how many innings the Mets played on Saturday?? They pretty much exhausted their bullpen, and still only managed to score 2 runs in 20 IP. They followed up that effort by scoring 3 off Adam Wainwright in a kind of fluky third inning. He settled down, and pitched a complete game. If your keeping track at home, that's 5 runs in 29 innings, and a beat-up bullpen. Oh, and they just released their starting first baseman. I'm rolling with super-second year player Randy Wells, and I expect the Cubbies to take advantage of the struggling Mets. Too good of a price to pass up.

Pick: Cubs -120

Week 2 recap to come...

Picks for Saturday, April 17, 2010

Diamondbacks game was BRUTAL last night. So was the Giants game. At least the SHARKS won in overtime!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ACE DAY!! I'll be working all day, thank the lord for day baseball!!

Johan Santana -110 @ Jaime Garcia -110, 7.5

Johan has a career 2-0 record with a 2.63 era against St. Louis and is looking to rebound from his last start against Washington, where he was chased early after giving up a grand slam. If there's one thing I know about Johan Santana, it's that he is a competitor, and rarely loses back-to-back starts, if ever. Jaime Garcia was very sharp this spring, and the Cardinals have high hopes for him, but he is not a 2-time CY young winner like Johan. Matt Holliday missed last night's game with an apparent illness, and no telling if he'll play today. Even if he does, I still like David Wright and a hot Francoeur to provide enough support to get the Mets a dub.

Pick: Mets -110

Jake Peavy -130 @ Jake Westbrook +110, 8

I'm already picked against Jake Peavy twice this year, and he hasn't done much to give me confidence. That being said, he's done more than his counterpart today. Westbrook has already been rocked by the White Sox this year, and has lost four straight decisions to them (including his last start to Peavy). Neither team has been rocking the cover off the ball (Cleveland is hitting .211), but I like the looks of the White Sox lineup today. Look for Peavy to bounce back and have his first useful start of 2010.

Pick: White Sox -130

Quick picks: I'm only recommending putting half of a unit on these games, as the research was split, but my gut likes them.

James Shields +115 @ Boston

Jamie Moyer -110 vs Florida

Tim Lincecum RL -105 @ Los Angeles

Picks for Friday, April 16, 2010

Tough late-night loss for the Diamondbacks and Danny Haren last night, he/they deserved better. FUCK LA. Anyway, despite the melt by Qualls and the Arizona defense last night, I still broke even on the day.

On to today's picks....

CJ Wilson +190 @ CC Sabathia -235, 8.5

Again, like Haren yesterday, I love this game strictly for value. The oddsmakers are basically saying that the Yankees have a 70-80% chance of winning with that line, but I think it's much closer than that. Consider this: Texas split with the Yankees in Yankee stadium last year, 3-3 and even took one of the two series, not an easy task. CC Sabathia has already thrown 215 pitches in only 13 innings so far this year!! That means that Girardi will keep him on a short leash. CC is 7-3 vs Texas in his career, but only has a pedestrian 4.50 era in those games. CJ Wilson on the other hand has a 3.24 era against NYY. Play this for the value, and thank me tomorrow.

Pick: Rangers +190

Edwin Jackson -115 @ Jon Garland -105, 7.5

Neither of these pitchers scream under to me, and neither has fared well against their current opponent. Jackson has a career 0-2 record with a 7.53 era against SD, and Garland has a 6.67 era against Arizona. Both of these offenses have shown signs of breaking out lately, and the current total on the game reflects the Petco Park factor.

Pick: Over 3.5 (first 5 innings) -115

Picks for Thursday, April 15, 2010

Very busy today, but I'll quickly throw up what I was thinking, and then edit it before game-time if I have a moment....

Tim Hudson -120 @ Mat Latos +110, 7

Huddy looked amazing in his first start, and this is the perfect park for him to pitch in. He works quickly and will rely on his defense. The Padres have been very up and down offensively so far this year, and with a young pitcher on the mound, I like the Braves here. If Atlanta's offense can get on the board early, Huddy should be able to go deep in the game and shut down the Padres.

Pick: Braves -120

Danny Haren +115 @ Hiroki Kuroda -130, 7.5

This is strictly a value pick. I know some people who will be quick to point out the success that Kuroda has had of late, and that the Dodgers offense is finally start to wake up. That being said, Danny Haren is the better pitcher (one of the best in the entire NL) and the D'backs offense is more than capable. Considering that most of their firepower is right-handed, that should give them just enough of an edge for me to take them here. Again, anytime Danny Haren is a dog, I'll take it for value alone.

Pick: Diamondbacks +115

Picks for Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Gio Gonzalez +100 @ Jason Vargas -115, 7.5

Seattle had gone 20 innings without scoring a run before last night, so to say their offense is struggling would be an understatement. I also think that tonight's pitching matchup definitely favors Oakland. Gio Gonzalez was very solid on the road in his first start (6 IP, 2 er @ LAA), and Vargas was NOT (5.1 IP, 5 er in a loss @ TEX). While Gonzalez hasn't had a ton of success vs Seattle (1-1, 4.25 era), this matchup looks tasty. He is a decent K pitcher going against a predominantly LH Mariners lineup. The A's have been the better team so far this year, and I like them in this one.

Pick: A's +100

Rodrigo Lopez +155 @ Chad Billingsley -185, 8

I think someone woke up the Dodgers offense, and forgot to tell the oddsmakers. This is the second straight day that this matchup has produced an over/under of 8. Yesterday, that went over in the 6th inning, and Kershaw is a better pitcher than Billingsley. However, both of tonight's starters are coming off very good starts in their season debuts. That being said, they both played Pittsburgh. Lopez has great career success against LA, but hasn't faced them since 2007 (so throw those stats out the window). Both of these teams can score runs, and they will combine to score more than 8 again tonight. Write that down.

Pick: Over 8

Picks for Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Brutal day yesterday, going 0-2 (-245 units, worst day of the year by far) and losing BOTH games in extra innings. Have no fear though, today's games offer some great value...

Ian Kennedy +140 @ Clayton Kershaw -165 , 8

Few teams are swinging the bat the way the Arizona Diamondbacks are right now. And leaving the task of slowing them down to youngster Clayton Kershaw might not be the most productive result. Kershaw only went 4.2 in his last start, as he was chased early by walks. He is winless in 3 career starts vs. the D'backs, and actually hasn't won a decision of any-kind since July 18, 2009. Ian Kennedy is far from the D'backs ace, and he was unspectacular in his first start (5 IP, 3 ER v SD). Considering how much better the Dodgers play at home, and how well the Diamondbacks are swinging the bats, I think this total is way too low. Take the over with confidence.

Pick: Over 8

Gavin Floyd -105 @ Ricky Romero -115, 8.5

Floyd has an 8.10 career ERA against Toronto and has never beaten them. His ERA on the road in the past 2 seasons is almost 5. Couple that with the fact that the White Sox beat Toronto in Toronto for the first time in 11 games last night (and it was in extras thanks to a blown Frasor save), and I think it's clear who has the edge here. Even Romero has been pitching well, and has a solid offense behind him for this one. Last April, Romero started out on fire, going 2-0 with a 1.61 ERA in four starts. Look for him to continue that success (esp. since CHW hitters have never seen him) and go deep into this game.

Pick: Toronto -115

Paul Maholm +175 @ Matt Cain -210, 7.5

Now I love the Giants more than a person should love a non-significant other or family member, but I still try to remain realistic when it comes to expectations and gambling. Usually I try to avoid betting on Gyros wins (unless LinCY is on the mound) and just focus on the total. Well, I think this is a good opportunity for that here. The Giants were on-fire last night at the plate, and gave Zito some much-deserved support. The same might be needed tonight, but I'm not so sure how easy those runs will come. Maholm owns a career 2.85 ERA against the Giants (6 starts). Cain was phenominal against the Pirates last year, going 1-0 with a 0.56 ERA. If you watched his last start, you know he was cruising until he got in trouble in the seventh. Basically, he pitched better than his line suggested. I like the Giants here, but the price isn't right. Instead, bet on the bats of both teams to be slowed in the early innings.

Pick: Under 4.0 (first 5 innings)

Picks for Monday, April 12, 2010

Johnny Cueto +125 @ Ricky Nolasco -145, 8

Even though the reds have won 3 out of their last 4, they only have 13 runs during those 4 games. Offense is going to be even harder to come by against today's starting pitcher. "Ricky-No" has been mentioned on this blog before, and I love his potential, especially against such a strike out-prone group like the Reds. Their best hitter, Joey Votto, has really struggled since he hit a HR opening day. I think Johnny Cueto can and will be a great pitcher in the NL, but I don't like his chances on the road. As long as Nolasco can avoid the long-ball, he should be good for a win today, even at this price.

Pick: Marlins -145

Jake Peavy -125 @ Brian Tallet +105, 8

Here are some eye-opening trends for an early season matchup. The Blue Jays have already won their last 5 games, and the Sox haven't won in Canada in 10 straight games!! I'm riding Vernon Wells' hot bat here. I've already picked correctly against Peavy once this year, and he didn't pitch well enough last start (3 runs, 7 hits in 5 IP) for me to change my mind on him. For Toronto's home opener, they trot out Brian Tallet, an underrated lefty who pitched really well in his first start. Rid the hot team until they make you pay.

Pick: Blue Jays +105

Week 1 Recap

Finished week 1 with a sparkling 11-4 record and +690 units. The breakdown:

3-0 on Under (first 5 innings) bets = +300 units

5-2 Moneyline bets on favorites = +255 units

1-0 Moneyline bets on underdogs = +145 units

1-0 on Over bets = +100 units

1-1 on Under bets = -10 units

0-1 on Runline bets = -100 units

The lesson:

Under (first 5 innings) bets - These are one of my favorite types of bets, because when I gamble on baseball, the obvious focus for me (as a former starting pitcher) is starting pitching. Taking the bet out of the bullpen's hands is the best way to assure that your research will mainly be applied to those SP's. All 3 games I won this way this week, would have been in danger of losing, if I had played the total for the entire game.

Runline betting - Even though this was the only betting style I was "losing" on this week, this is a very smart way to bet sometimes. It allows you to get good value on extremely good pitching matchups. I advise using the runline betting when you have an SP that is a -180 favorite or better, and you like the offense that supports that pitcher. The logic is, you expect the SP to shut down the offense, and you have the same confidence that they will win the game by 2, instead of squeaking out a 1 run win. Taking the odds from -180 to say +115 in this scenario makes perfect sense. Expect to see alot more of these types of bets in the upcoming weeks.

Underdog betting - This is by far my favorite way to bet, and pretty soon, I will unleash the updated CUTTY© Underdog Program™. Stay tuned...

Picks for Saturday, April 10, 2010

Josh Beckett -120 @ Zach Greinke +100, 7.5

I love it when two bona-fide aces get pitted against each other. Beckett is fresh off of a schlaaaping by the Yankees on opening day, but he also got PAID since his last start. He's a big-game pitcher, and I expect him to be sharp against the lowly-Royals, Billy Butler be damned. Zach Greinke on the other hand, is fresh off of a CY Young, and sports a 0.61 ERA against Boston since 2007. Yeah, he's also a big-game pitcher.

Pick: Under 4.5 in first five innings

Derrek Lowe -120 @ Todd Wellemeyer +100, 9

You can make a case for or against Lowe if you hard enough at his stats. First of all, he's never started a season by winning his first 2 starts. He won his first start, but it was not pretty (5 runs, 2 HR). However, he is 4-0, with a 1.96 ERA at AT&T Park, and the Braves will expect him to go deep in the game after both teams pretty much emptied their bullpens and benches yesterday. Wellemeyer lead the team in IP in Cactus league, posting a 2.70 ERA. The Giants as a team have won 8 of the last 9 vs. Atlanta in San Francisco, and this should be a well played, well pitched game. Hayward is 1-12 since his opening day HR, including 4 K's yesterday, and Chipper should be out again. Don't look for alot of offense, especially in the early innings.

Pick: Under 5.0 in first five innings -115

Friday Results

What a game for the Giants!!!!!!!! Renteria!!! So fucking exciting. Check out the recap at TheDodgerHaterblog http://dodgerhater.blogspot.com/2010/04/special-win-for-special-team.html.

Anyway, 3-0 day, +300 units. Always sucks when I have to root for the Dodgers, but I like winning bets way more.

Bo-Rat & Too-$hort in Fairfax tonight, so I might not be up in time for picks tomorrow. CY TIMMY on the mound on Sunday, along with Johan, so I'm going to try and get some good value picks in for that day.

Have a great weekend everyone!

+490 on the year, I'll take it.

Picks for Friday, April 9, 2010

Full slate of games today, including the Giant's Home Opener!! Jonathan San-chize is on the mound, facing Tim Hudson. Let the first weekend series' of the year begin!!

Rapid fire with a few quick picks, since it's Friday and I have a busy day at work....

Hudson -110 @ Sanchez -110, 8

Gyros starting 3-0 thanks to strong pitching, but also the hitting has come on as well. The Braves have a +12 run differential through 3 games, but they just traveled 3,000 miles across the country to come to one of the premier home-field advantages in all of baseball. Also, Larry "Chipper" Jones should be sitting this one out.

Pick: Giants -110

Hiroki Kiroda -125 @ Chris Volstad, 8.5

I know stats from last year and spring training aren't the best tools this early in the season. However, it is worth noting that down the stretch last year, Kiroda was 3-2 with a 2.79 era in his last 5 starts of 2009, while Volstad finished 2009 by losing 4 consectutive starts with an era over 12. Volstad also served up 29 HR last year. Kiroda was sharp this spring, while Vostad...not as much.

Pick: Dodgers -125

Pick: Over 8.5

Additional picks for 4/8/10

Randy Wells +165 @ Tommy Hanson -195, 8

The Braves have already lit up the Cubbies for 19 runs in 2 games (mostly thanks to Big Z, haha), and their offense is looking very potent. The Cubs have only mangaed 7 runs in those same 2 games, but their offense also has some firepower in it that has yet to show up. Atlanta's park has been a hitter's park for the past few seasons, and couple that with the fact that both bullpens have already logged more than a few innings, I can see the ball flying around the yard today. However, I am totally buying into the emergence of Tommy Hanson as a major league Ace. Basically he was unhittable last year when facing a team other than the Phillies or Milwaukee. And as a bonus stat, Randy Wells had a 2.08 era in 2 starts vs. the Braves last year. I don't think today is the day the Cubs break out of their slump, and if Wells can just contain the Braves offense, we could be looking at a lower scoring game than expected.

Pick: Under 4 in first 5 innings -110

Kevin Slowey +115 @ Joel Pineiro -135, 9.5

This will be Slowey's first start since his season was cut down prematurely last year by wrist surgery. He has always been a pitcher who relies on his command rather than his overpowering stuff. The way that the Angels have come out of the gate firing on cilinders makes me very weary of his getting back into the groove this early in the season. I've always felt that Pineiro was one of the more underrated pitchers in the NL when he was with St. Louis. Consider this more of a backing of Anaheim's offense though.

Pick: Angels -135

Royals-Tigers game

Well, Brian Bannister delivered on what I thought he was going to do, posting a nice line of 6 IP, 6 hits, 0 bb & only 1 ER (a Mag-pipes solo job). The thing that surprised me, however was that Dontrelle seemed to carry over some of that swagger from a good spring. While a 6 IP, 2 ER, 1.50 whip is not outstanding, I'm sure Tigers fans were thrilled to see it.

Through 7 innings, the Royals were holding onto a 2-1 lead, before they showed us exactly who they were..... the Kansas City Royals. Serves me right I guess.

While they can't all be winners, remind me to never say anything nice about Luis Mendoza. 5 ER in 1.2 IP?? Unbelievable.

I should have 1 more pick up before the day is done, hopefully I can get back to the winning ways.

Early pick for 4/8/10

Went 1-1 on Wednesday, but still netted a +35 day due to a big underdog win by Fausto and the Indians. Ricky-No pitched like I thought he would, but the bullpen gave up 4 runs, and this game eventually went into extras. The under never really had a chance though, as John Maine didn't pitch the way I had hoped he would. A couple HR by Hanley and Cantu, and the under was pretty much gone. Oh well, still made $!

For Thursday, there are 11 games, 6 of which qualify as "day" games. Before going to bed, my research gave me one pick that I want to mention now before I don't have time to post it tomorrow....

Dontrelle Willis -110 @ Brian Bannister -110

Despite Dontrelle having a pretty solid spring (2-0, 3.30 era), he has not had an ERA under 5 since 2006. His opponent, Bannister, has some very intriguing split stats that stood out to me. Brian Bannister is over an entire run better in ERA at home for his career, and is also almost a run better during day games. He had an ERA of 0.69 last April, so quick starts are in his past. Also, in over 38 IP in his career against Detroit, he is 4-2 with a 2.09 ERA. Dontrelle has never faced the Royals. I'm taking the home team, and playing the statistics on this one.

Pick: Royals -110

Yesterday's results: 1-1 (+35 units)

Year-to-date: 5-2 (+335 units)

Picks for Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Broke even yesterday with a 1-1 day. Chris R. Young looked sharp and in 2007 form, while Edwin didn't have the debut I expected. The Rays-O's game did go the way I expected though, and despite the 2 runs in the ninth, the game still went under the total.

Full slate of games today...

Ricky Nolasco -125 @ John Maine +105, 8.5

If you followed Spring Training at all, you know exactly how dominant Ricky-No was. His K:BB ratio was off the charts, and he basically continued his success from the second half of 2009. Many people might have soured on him after a breakout 2008 due to his horrible first half of '09, but he seems to have regained his focus. John Maine is one of the most underrated pitchers in the NL, and while he might not be the dominant-type, he is capable of putting up a quality start, especially against a RH-heavy Marlins lineup. Citi-field was a pitchers park last year, and despite the fences being moved in, I don't see a ton of runs being scored today.

Pick: Under 8.5

Fausto Carmona +145 @ Jake Peavy -170, 8

Another guy who was brilliant in spring training (I know, I know spring stats don't matter! shhh don't tell us Giant's fans) was Fausto Carmona. In 2008, he was one of the best pitchers in the American League, using his mid-90's sinker to overpower people. Last year, saying he struggled would be an understatement. But I know talent when I see it, and Fausto has all of the makings to be a successful pitcher. Peavy on the other hand, also had a decent spring, but the price on this matchup is saying that we will see the Petco-Peavy of old. I need to see that in consecutive starts before I lay -170 on him. Take the value before people realize Fausto is back!

Pick: Indians +145

Yesterday's results: 1-1 (even)

Monday's results: 3-0 (+300 units)

Picks for Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Only 7 games on tap today, but there is some value if you look hard enough!

Chris R. Young +135 @ Edwin Jackson -160, 9

We all know the Padres suck, ahem I mean rebuilding, but I think the consensus on the D'backs is a little unclear. Some people call them a year away, so people think they can contend now. One common thing I've read though, is that people are leaning towards "fluke" when it comes to Edwin Jackson's year with Detroit. I think it's just the opposite. I read it as "BREAKOUT". The D'backs lineup is full of young guns, but they have enough firepower to be a scary, scary team when BWebb comes back. Edwin proves all of the doubters wrong today. I even feel great giving up a run.

Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5 runs +140

Kevin Millwood +200 @ James Shields -250, 8.5

Neither of these pitchers is unfamiliar with opening days, but neither is really associated with them either. That being said, both of these pitchers are going into the season considered their team's "ace". If you look at the splits, Shields has always been a much better pitcher at home than on the road. Millwood is just a veteran pitcher who I expect to keep the young Orioles team in the game as he makes his debut with them. I love the Rays and their offense this year, but I'm going with a gut-feeling pick here.

Pick: Under 9

Monday Results

What an amazing day of baseball yesterday!!!!

CY TIMMYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oh yeah, and I went 3-0 with the picks, and also said I liked the over in the Atlanta game. Speaking of the Atlanta game, as I predicted Zambrano did get LIT and the Braves offense came to play. Jayson Hayward HR in his first MLB at-bat, are you kidding me?!?!

Great first win for the Gigantes, behind an absolute gem from the Ace.

Johan, Halladay, Haren, Ubaldo, Felix all also looking amazing. Like I said yesterday, ACE DAY!!

Only 7 games on the schedule today, so I'll be back with a pick or two later.

Best Opening Day picks - 4/5/10

With 13 games on the schedule, this is the first day since October that actually feels like baseball season!! And like always, with Opening Day comes Aces full.... on to the picks!!

Carlos Zambrano +110 @ Derrek Lowe -130, 8.5

Big Z is coming off of a very forgettable year, but as always the expectations are high in Chicago. The problem is, after a few years off since there impressive run, expectations are finally high in Atlanta as well. Call this a lack-of-faith bet in Z, or a sign of trust in Atlanta, but the Braves are a great play in this opener. The over would also not be a bad play.

Pick: Braves -130

Felix Hernandez -155 @ Ben Sheets +135, 7

2009 was the year that King Felix finally put a full season together. 2009 was also a season that Ben Sheets did not pitch in. After watching both get ready this spring, only one of these pitchers impressed me, and it wasn't the guy who didn't pitch last year (but somehow got $8 million). I think that Seattle is an under the radar team this year, and I especially like them with their ace on the mound. While not an amazing price, I think it's well worth the chalk.

Pick: Mariners -155

Tim Lincecum -135 @ Roy Oswalt +115, 7

If you have ever seen Lincecum pitch, you know just how dominant he can be. Too much was made of a cut on his middle finger right at the end of the spring training, and not enough was made of Oswalt's balky back. The Giants offense is much-improved, while the Astros have even appeared to take a step backwards (if that's possible) with Berkman on the shelf. CY Timmy makes the first step towards CY #3 tonight.

Pick: Giants -135

2010 MLB Season is here!!!!

Time to bring the blog back, after a looooong hiatus. Trust me though, it has nothing to do with me having too much time on my hands. In fact, I doubt I've ever had so much going simultaneously in my entire life. But, it's arguably the best time of the entire year for sports, fantasy sports and therefore gambling. Let's take a look at some of the things I'm excited about this week....

• Baseball Opening Day today!!!! Go LinCYcum!!
  
  
• NCAA title game tonight - I already won my pool though, don't worry. Go Duke.
  
  
• Fantasy Basketball Championship matchup - feels good.
  
  
• Masters this weekend & Tiger press conference today. Always entertaining.

MLB, NBA, NHL, NCAA, Golf all running simultaneously?? No wonder I'm overwhelmed...